powderfreak Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 if you're closer to the core of the heat then you're further from the best flow. july 99 and aug 2006 had mcs/derecho events hit NNE Yeah I was going to say that most of our cold fronts result in some big storms...the northern tier of New England and southern Quebec do decently with SVR when SNE/Mid-Atlantic roast. The airmass changes after a hot spell usually produces some fun days up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 The gust front with this second line of storms was crazy...probably close to 40mph swirling gusts. Type of thing when the trees are bending one way then get shook hard back the other way. Seemed to almost be coming straight down out of the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Pretty impressive line came thru for here, Best of the summer so far Winds? Hail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Well, this set up will be interesting for Saturday, I'm helping out with a huge music festival (Green River Festival) in Greenfield on Saturday and Sunday with multiple stages, multiple tents and hot air ballons. lol Let's hope the storms come through early... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 The peak wind of 90 knots is much more impressive Totally agree with that. My friend posted a video from LSC. Awesome shelf cloud with lots of CG's. Currently heat lightning here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Any storms that pop and pulse over a given town today will quickly go severe..then pulse down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Couple mesos have a little line of storms this evening moving from W Mass thru N CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2013 Author Share Posted July 18, 2013 Couple mesos have a little line of storms this evening moving from W Mass thru N CT The WRF has a cluster develop late evening and affects portions of northern CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2013 Author Share Posted July 18, 2013 Well I guess we'll see what kind of lapse rates we will get. The GFS continues to insist they will not be an issue while the NAM is much weaker...then again, the NAM has not handled lapse rates quite well this year. May not see widespread severe but Saturday should be fairly active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Bulk shear values don't look as nice for CT/RI/E MA (25-30 kts) when compared to yesterday's model run (30-40 kts). Also looks like timing of front has slowed slightly to make it more of an evening event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2013 Author Share Posted July 18, 2013 Bulk shear values don't look as nice for CT/RI/E MA (25-30 kts) when compared to yesterday's model run (30-40 kts). Also looks like timing of front has slowed slightly to make it more of an evening event. The front does appear to have slowed down, although it still looks like we may see a pre-frontal trough setup. There is a pretty strong cap up around 850-800mb which should help us to at least destabilize quite well. As long as dews don't mix out and we see lapse rates around 6.5 C/KM I think we can get 3000-4000 SBcape and 1500-2500 MLcape. Just going to have to watch how this is all played out on the models tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 So I went and looked at this Saturday thunderstorm "event" for the first time.....not overly impressed. Tons of CAPE, lack of shear. Don't pay any attention to the NAM at the moment. It doesn't even get the front off the coast until Sunday evening. While the GFS and Euro push it through Saturday evening. I have my worries too about the timing of this front slowing down a bit more too. The trough and vort max that spawn our cold front will be in the process of being absorbed by a rather large vortex just east of Hudson Bay. My fear is that instead of the front swinging through the region, the front gets stretched and sags from NW to SE. Eh who knows. Maybe some kind of fujiwara effect occurs instead and the front blasts through early and we have an outbreak of supercells. O wait, the needed shear for that is up near the Canadian Border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 You only just looked at it Chris? That's not like you lol. Must be all of the Riverhawk blog updating you've been doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 OKX GYX ENX all offline right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 OKX GYX ENX all offline right now Now you know something big this way cometh. Last night featured a great light show, constant flashes as that complex moved off the coast of ME. Appears the NNE is primed for a MCS, MCV or maybe a derecho. Models will not show this based on past episodes. Storms already firing N of Huron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Tomorrow is a nothing day for SNE but today could be interesting if we get something to fire in the Great Lakes. The 12z soundings from OKX, ALB, and BUF (especially BUF) are quite unstable and without much CIN. Shear is lacking down this was but we'll have the instability available to maintain a thunderstorm complex if it forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 No severe but Thurs much of SNE sees a stormEverything on track it would appear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Everything on track it would appear I would say isolated, rather than widespread. NNE is probably in the best situation right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Everything on track it would appear It's pretty conditional. Need something to pop upstream. I wouldn't rule out a decent MCS but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 It's pretty conditional. Need something to pop upstream. I wouldn't rule out a decent MCS but we'll see. I could see something sneaking in today, and maybe a NNE MCS again overnight? There is a S/W coming through, but it's still capped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 I could see something sneaking in today, and maybe a NNE MCS again overnight? There is a S/W coming through, but it's still capped. Yeah I think maybe things will be a bit farther south? I'm interested in whether something forms near Lk Ontario. The Buffalo sounding is super unstable and not terrible capped. H7 temps around +9c here aren't bad either (compared to +12 tomorrow) so I do see some potential if we can generate something upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 It's pretty conditional. Need something to pop upstream. I wouldn't rule out a decent MCS but we'll see.Yeah it seems like if we don't see something from upstream we wouldn't be able to pop air mass storms. You wonder if those storms that moved thru FFD County early AM may have left some sort of boundary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 You only just looked at it Chris? That's not like you lol. Must be all of the Riverhawk blog updating you've been doing. That and all the having to actually work thing. Sucks. Not like during the school year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Storms are popping east of Syracuse. Edit: Rochester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Storms are popping east of Syracuse. Edit: Rochester MD out for the area, looks like they'll get a Severe watch later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Hoping to get in the storms here in troy ny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Hoping to get in the storms here in troy ny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 I could see something sneaking in today, and maybe a NNE MCS again overnight? There is a S/W coming through, but it's still capped. 12z NAM put together a complex that rolled southeastward from N.NY through VT/NH and into eastern MA... that looked possible based on the trajectory of that stuff in the northern Lakes right now. Goes from like BTV to BOS. The guys in CT will want to see something form further south in like the I-90 area of western/central NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 The storms near Cuse are a good sign for us later on if we want storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Latest RAP runs seem to be firing convection on the sea-breeze boundary or something... has storms going from east to west from BOS suburbs out to like I-91, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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