Quincy Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Incorrect. Like Nick said, there was an EML present. Ekster and Banacos have a paper on this clearly stating that. The image/post has been corrected, thanks for pointing that out. My mind is stuck in July right now, so that may have been why I put the wrong month in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 The image/post has been corrected, thanks for pointing that out. My mind is stuck in July right now, so that may have been why I put the wrong month in. It's all good. That was a textbook EML event with morning severe preceding the aftn stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 It's all good. That was a textbook EML event with morning severe preceding the aftn stuff. Heavy, heavy ACCAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Heavy, heavy ACCAS That morning was awesome. I was literally watching the TCU explode to CBs. We had had almost dime size hail at WSI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 The 12z GFS seems to be hitting Friday harder now with respect to the severe potential. Pre-frontal trough-type feature? With the heat and 850's of +21 to 22C, fairly unstable conditions of course, but seeing some decent wind shear and helicity as well. Those pesky ML LR's are only 6.3°C/km though, at least at BDL for 00z Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 The 12z GFS seems to be hitting Friday harder now with respect to the severe potential. Pre-frontal trough-type feature? With the heat and 850's of +21 to 22C, fairly unstable conditions of course, but seeing some decent wind shear and helicity as well. Those pesky ML LR's are only 6.3°C/km though, at least at BDL for 00z Saturday I see that. Like you said before though, trying to pinpoint lapse rates this far out is a bit premature. As I was saying before, I think with everything else we already have in place lapse rates won't be the underlying factor to what may happen in terms of convective development. Higher rates will be nice, but I wouldn't downplay the "lower" values too much right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2013 Author Share Posted July 15, 2013 I think the lapse rates are being looked into way too much here. If we were talking 5 to 5.5 C/KM lapse rates then I could see the point...but mlvl lapse rates in the 6-6.5 /KM range is pretty darn decent. Those won't kill you. Not to mention we will have dewpoints probably in the upper 60's...possibly tickling 70F with an abundance of llvl moisture which can compensate for weaker lapse rates but I don't consider 6-6.5 C/KM weak. In fact, I'm not even worried about lapse rates. This potential is mainly straight line wind/squall line potential, though if the sfc low tracks a bit further south and a bit more of an open wave, we could have a threat for supercells. Anyways, the keys here will be timing, and when the strongest winds aloft reside over the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 I think the lapse rates are being looked into way too much here. If we were talking 5 to 5.5 C/KM lapse rates then I could see the point...but mlvl lapse rates in the 6-6.5 /KM range is pretty darn decent. Those won't kill you. Not to mention we will have dewpoints probably in the upper 60's...possibly tickling 70F with an abundance of llvl moisture which can compensate for weaker lapse rates but I don't consider 6-6.5 C/KM weak. In fact, I'm not even worried about lapse rates. This potential is mainly straight line wind/squall line potential, though if the sfc low tracks a bit further south and a bit more of an open wave, we could have a threat for supercells. Anyways, the keys here will be timing, and when the strongest winds aloft reside over the region. I don't think people were dismissing it. 6.5C/KM is decent for us if dynamics suffice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 I think the lapse rates are being looked into way too much here. If we were talking 5 to 5.5 C/KM lapse rates then I could see the point...but mlvl lapse rates in the 6-6.5 /KM range is pretty darn decent. Those won't kill you. Not to mention we will have dewpoints probably in the upper 60's...possibly tickling 70F with an abundance of llvl moisture which can compensate for weaker lapse rates but I don't consider 6-6.5 C/KM weak. In fact, I'm not even worried about lapse rates. I'm with ya on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2013 Author Share Posted July 15, 2013 I don't think people were dismissing it. 6.5C/KM is decent for us if dynamics suffice. It appears as if the dynamics will certainly be there. Both GFS/Euro have more than favorable shear with good unidirectional/speed shear. In fact, both models also have a pretty strong LLJ and that ULJ is pretty intense for mid-July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2013 Author Share Posted July 15, 2013 I'm with ya on that. Looking at 12z GFS bufkit soundings, it actually appears there is a very weak remnant EML that trickles overhead late Friday into early Saturday. GFS actually has lapse rates (at least across northern CT about 6.5 C/KM...even upwards to 6.8 for much of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Looking at 12z GFS bufkit soundings, it actually appears there is a very weak remnant EML that trickles overhead late Friday into early Saturday. GFS actually has lapse rates (at least across northern CT about 6.5 C/KM...even upwards to 6.8 for much of the day. This was a nice EML Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2013 Author Share Posted July 15, 2013 That was pretty damn sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Let's hope timing works out. It's a fine needle to thread here, although signs have been pointing towards at least an enhanced threat of a legit severe outbreak across the Northeast. I think we get two swings here, Friday and Saturday...Friday could be more of an isolated, pre-frontal variety and assuming the front comes through during the second half of Saturday, that's when we could see some widespread strong to severe storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Gfs looked very weak sauce on Saturday with dews mixing out with a very deep boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2013 Author Share Posted July 15, 2013 Let's hope timing works out. It's a fine needle to thread here, although signs have been pointing towards at least an enhanced threat of a legit severe outbreak across the Northeast. I think we get two swings here, Friday and Saturday...Friday could be more of an isolated, pre-frontal variety and assuming the front comes through during the second half of Saturday, that's when we could see some widespread strong to severe storms. Actually, Friday would have potential for supercells and perhaps a tornado threat if we have a spark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2013 Author Share Posted July 15, 2013 Gfs looked very weak sauce on Saturday with dews mixing out with a very deep boundary layer. bufkit shows dewpoints dropping to just about 18C between 11-2 PM then increasing by 4-5 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Thursday is a day to watch for some big ones..Sneaky s/w moves thru NNE...should be enough to generate some big bangs for us..Saturday way too far out to properly forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Thursday continues to look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Thursday continues to look good Except for that cap with neutral height falls and 700mb temps near +11C. I wouldn't be surprised if we see nothing until Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Thursday is a sneaky tstorm day. Keep an eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Thursday is a sneaky tstorm day. Keep an eye SREF likes the idea of possible storms, but the severe probs are relatively low: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Friday could actually be active across upstate New York and northern New England with a shortwave coming through and a pretty good wind field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 why would anyone who wants severe weather not be concerned about mid-level lapse rates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Just had a brief downpour here in west Portland. Massive raindrops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 why would anyone who wants severe weather not be concerned about mid-level lapse rates? It's not that we aren't, it's that there are already so many things in place that mid-level lapse rates from 6.0-6.8 should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Bigt boomers Wednesday and Thursday in NNE possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Bigt boomers Wednesday and Thursday in NNE possible. Bring it! If they only hold together to give us coastal dwellers some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2013 Author Share Posted July 16, 2013 why would anyone who wants severe weather not be concerned about mid-level lapse rates? Mid-level lapse rates are modeled to be in the 6-6.5 C/KM lapse rates and actually the latest GFS run has lapse rates now up closer to 6.5-7 C/KM. When it comes to lapse rates I think people sort of have a misunderstanding about them, especially when it comes to EML's. In Ekster's EML paper, according to the research he's done, only 18% of all significant severe weather events in the Northeast had EML's...that's not really a high percentage. However, when we have EML setups with favorable lift around, they do tend to produce. As long as mid-level lapse rates are greater than 6 C/KM, they won't be a limiting factor, especially if other ingredients are in place. If we do want to worry though, it could be having previous day's convection or if we don't have any cap in place, having crap activity develop and kill lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2013 Author Share Posted July 16, 2013 I would really watch central/northern New England on Friday. The GFS has a weak vort max traversing across the U/Canadian border and with a very favorable thermodynamic and perhaps a highly sheared environment with decent helicity (GFS has stronger 0-6km shear), there could be a window for some convective bands or even supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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