OKpowdah Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 This MD area is right up there in the ranks of some of my snowfall maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 Woohooo it's pouring out...waited 7 days for a D7 risk area for this fooking garbage arse bull****. I hate 2013. I've screwed up every single convective threat we had to hell...I did terrible...I was so bad to the point to where I really have no clue what I'm doing. I am completely lost right now and just don't even know what to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 sam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Woohooo it's pouring out...waited 7 days for a D7 risk area for this fooking garbage arse bull****. I hate 2013. I've screwed up every single convective threat we had to hell...I did terrible...I was so bad to the point to where I really have no clue what I'm doing. I am completely lost right now and just don't even know what to do. dude...you're fine. forecasting convection is really hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 I remember us having this conversation, and yet another heat wave manages to end with a comparative whimper. I don't know what it is -- it just seems something always goes wrong. 4 days of unbearable heat and DPs and then a cold front comes along and it's all exciting looking. Yeah, Hype had been mentioning that for days...heat waves ending with little severe and that's sort of what happened.Meanwhile I had been remembering high end severe following heat waves...and sure enough yesterday saw possibly the most significant widespread severe event of the summer up here to end the heat wave. I'm still without power as of 24 hours later and still widespread power outages in central/northern VT from a long tracking macroburst type deal....almost like a mini-derecho that came out of Canada across NNY and N/C VT. KMVL up here still hasn't issued anything since the storms hit yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 dude...you're fine. forecasting convection is really hard. I feel like I'm back to where I was 6-7 years ago and that just isn't good. I think I need to just re-visit how I look at everything leading up to possible events. I think I just place too much stock into thermodynamics and i need to get a better understanding of the synoptic setup. I'm not happy with myself over this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 Just going to take a break and regain myself mentally until I feel more fit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 I feel like I'm back to where I was 6-7 years ago and that just isn't good. I think I need to just re-visit how I look at everything leading up to possible events. I think I just place too much stock into thermodynamics and i need to get a better understanding of the synoptic setup. I'm not happy with myself over this summer. You seem to analyze the Synoptics quite well, dude. You are always looking at the mid/upper level jet entrance/exit regions, vort maxed and stuff like that. The jet dynamics seemed just a little too far north for SNE this time...those jet streaks and best H5 winds were near the international border and into southern Canada. And I know you asked a met about how far away you can be from it and still be considered in the entrance region or benefit from it, so you were thinking about it. It's all a crap-shoot anyway...once the jet stream starts dropping south again in the means, you guys will get better kinematics on a more regular basis. This is the climo time of year when the mid/upper jets get to their furthest north latitude anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 I feel like I'm back to where I was 6-7 years ago and that just isn't good. I think I need to just re-visit how I look at everything leading up to possible events. I think I just place too much stock into thermodynamics and i need to get a better understanding of the synoptic setup. I'm not happy with myself over this summer. Don't be so hard on yourself. There's a reason so many forecasts just stick with "chance of scattered storms throughout the area" instead of going into precise details, convection is a devious mistress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 Just going to take a break and regain myself mentally until I feel more fit. Not talking about weather since I never approached any truly difficult topics in this subj, but for me, this has been a great tactic when I hit a wall on something difficult. When people here tell you that you're doing well, you should believe it. Nothing wrong with holding yourself to high standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 Boom boom bang incoming, 10 minutes left in the quarter. Woot Woot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 Big bag of fail for most. Wxhype FTW with the call... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 Big bag of fail for most. Wxhype FTW with the call...After seeing a TOR wx hype knows when to hold and when to fold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 After seeing a TOR wx hype knows when to hold and when to foldThe highlight of July was the fauxnado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 could get clipped by cell cutting across r entering ma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 Major rainage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 getting rumbles now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 BOX just warned it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 Severe Thunderstorm Warning SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MAC005-023-RIC001-005-210215-/O.NEW.KBOX.SV.W.0060.130721T0125Z-130721T0215Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 925 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... BRISTOL COUNTY IN RHODE ISLAND... CENTRAL BRISTOL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS... EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL NEWPORT COUNTY IN RHODE ISLAND... SOUTHWESTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS... * UNTIL 1015 PM EDT * AT 922 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SEEKONK...OR 4 MILES NORTH OF BARRINGTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... NEW BEDFORD...FALL RIVER...BARRINGTON...BERKLEY...FREETOWN... WARREN...SWANSEA...SOMERSET...DIGHTON...WESTPORT...ACUSHNET... REHOBOTH AND LAKEVILLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH... DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. LAT...LON 4167 7118 4171 7116 4171 7121 4173 7122 4170 7124 4172 7126 4168 7124 4169 7129 4172 7129 4172 7133 4175 7135 4178 7132 4187 7133 4190 7134 4190 7138 4193 7138 4187 7085 4166 7081 4165 7083 4163 7080 TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 279DEG 28KT 4179 7129 FRANK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 was just driving through that warned cell in seekonk. blinding rain, 20-30mph wind, frequent lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 solid t-storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 Went out for Chinese and was treated to the full moon illumination of a departing Tstorm bye bye heat.http://i1103.photobucket.com/albums/g462/steveginx/IMG_20130720_213434.jpg[/img Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 Storms on good path for me. Following path that other well know storms have taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 Looks like this one will hold together for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 Temp has risen past 2 hrs in duxbury. First storm 76 now 79 on davis Still tropical 76 dew. Miserable. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 Lightning to my south. ..pls need some rain. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 may not verify severe but solid t-storm. frequent lightning and thunder. heavy rains and gusty winds. perfect timing for the yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 Looking northeast that warned cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 Storm is south of still getting major rain with that tiny cell that just sprang up north of the old cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Pool Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 Awesome light show viewing from the south. Crappy cell pic gives no justice, but it still looks cool... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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