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Severe Weather possible weekend of the 21st?


weatherwiz

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Woohooo it's pouring out...waited 7 days for a D7 risk area for this fooking garbage arse bull****.  I hate 2013.  I've screwed up every single convective threat we had to hell...I did terrible...I was so bad to the point to where I really have no clue what I'm doing.  I am completely lost right now and just don't even know what to do.  

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Woohooo it's pouring out...waited 7 days for a D7 risk area for this fooking garbage arse bull****.  I hate 2013.  I've screwed up every single convective threat we had to hell...I did terrible...I was so bad to the point to where I really have no clue what I'm doing.  I am completely lost right now and just don't even know what to do.  

dude...you're fine. forecasting convection is really hard. 

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I remember us having this conversation, and yet another heat wave manages to end with a comparative whimper. I don't know what it is -- it just seems something always goes wrong. 4 days of unbearable heat and DPs and then a cold front comes along and it's all exciting looking.

Yeah, Hype had been mentioning that for days...heat waves ending with little severe and that's sort of what happened.

Meanwhile I had been remembering high end severe following heat waves...and sure enough yesterday saw possibly the most significant widespread severe event of the summer up here to end the heat wave.

I'm still without power as of 24 hours later and still widespread power outages in central/northern VT from a long tracking macroburst type deal....almost like a mini-derecho that came out of Canada across NNY and N/C VT. KMVL up here still hasn't issued anything since the storms hit yesterday.

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dude...you're fine. forecasting convection is really hard. 

 

I feel like I'm back to where I was 6-7 years ago and that just isn't good.  I think I need to just re-visit how I look at everything leading up to possible events.  I think I just place too much stock into thermodynamics and i need to get a better understanding of the synoptic setup.  I'm not happy with myself over this summer.  

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I feel like I'm back to where I was 6-7 years ago and that just isn't good. I think I need to just re-visit how I look at everything leading up to possible events. I think I just place too much stock into thermodynamics and i need to get a better understanding of the synoptic setup. I'm not happy with myself over this summer.

You seem to analyze the Synoptics quite well, dude. You are always looking at the mid/upper level jet entrance/exit regions, vort maxed and stuff like that.

The jet dynamics seemed just a little too far north for SNE this time...those jet streaks and best H5 winds were near the international border and into southern Canada. And I know you asked a met about how far away you can be from it and still be considered in the entrance region or benefit from it, so you were thinking about it.

It's all a crap-shoot anyway...once the jet stream starts dropping south again in the means, you guys will get better kinematics on a more regular basis. This is the climo time of year when the mid/upper jets get to their furthest north latitude anyway.

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I feel like I'm back to where I was 6-7 years ago and that just isn't good. I think I need to just re-visit how I look at everything leading up to possible events. I think I just place too much stock into thermodynamics and i need to get a better understanding of the synoptic setup. I'm not happy with myself over this summer.

Don't be so hard on yourself. There's a reason so many forecasts just stick with "chance of scattered storms throughout the area" instead of going into precise details, convection is a devious mistress.

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Just going to take a break and regain myself mentally until I feel more fit.  

Not talking about weather since I never approached any truly difficult topics in this subj, but for me, this has been a great tactic when I hit a wall on something difficult.  When people here tell you that you're doing well, you should believe it.  Nothing wrong with holding yourself to high standards.

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MAC005-023-RIC001-005-210215-/O.NEW.KBOX.SV.W.0060.130721T0125Z-130721T0215Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 925 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... BRISTOL COUNTY IN RHODE ISLAND... CENTRAL BRISTOL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS... EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL NEWPORT COUNTY IN RHODE ISLAND... SOUTHWESTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...

* UNTIL 1015 PM EDT

* AT 922 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SEEKONK...OR 4 MILES NORTH OF BARRINGTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... NEW BEDFORD...FALL RIVER...BARRINGTON...BERKLEY...FREETOWN... WARREN...SWANSEA...SOMERSET...DIGHTON...WESTPORT...ACUSHNET... REHOBOTH AND LAKEVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH... DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

LAT...LON 4167 7118 4171 7116 4171 7121 4173 7122 4170 7124 4172 7126 4168 7124 4169 7129 4172 7129 4172 7133 4175 7135 4178 7132 4187 7133 4190 7134 4190 7138 4193 7138 4187 7085 4166 7081 4165 7083 4163 7080 TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 279DEG 28KT 4179 7129

FRANK

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