Quincy Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 The front comes thru SundayAOKTNew Kuro guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 And there's several days of storms with NW flow events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 And there's several days of storms with NW flow events to the Nth degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 Thursday aftn offers a chance of tstms too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 14, 2013 Author Share Posted July 14, 2013 Thursday aftn offers a chance of tstms too. Wonder if there could be some supercells up in northern New Hampshire/southern ME area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 to the Nth degree.I post this and then you weenie me and after my post you post Thursday has storms lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 I post this and then you weenie me and after my post you post Thursday has storms lol Because it's not 4 days of derechos that you imply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL PUSH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THEGREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE REGION TO BE IN APOSSIBLE PRIME LOCATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. AS THE REGIONIS ALREADY IN A MOIST HUMID AIRMASS AND THE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHAS WELL. A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL BE THE DRIVINGOR LIFT FACTOR FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE ISHIGH THAT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE ONE OF THE MAIN THREATS SO HAVEADDED THE ENHANCED WORDING INTO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THIS IS STILLSEVERAL DAYS OUT SO WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATESTGUIDANCE TO SEE IF THE POTENTIAL CONTINUES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE ONE OF THE MAIN THREATS Damaging Downpours!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 2-4 derechos seem possible, lolli to 5 finally, the extreme damage we've hoped and wished for all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 we need eml advection... just looked at gfs bufkit and lapse rates stink this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 we need eml advection... just looked at gfs bufkit and lapse rates stink this week Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2013 Author Share Posted July 15, 2013 6 to 6.5 don't stink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 EML advection would be nice but I think with everything else we have in place things will fire up anyways. 6.0-6.5 lapse rates will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Beyond the obvious ML lapse rates, one of the underrated benefits of the EML is the initial CIN and tendency to keep things discrete at first. It's pretty hard out here to give a supercell room to breathe for an extended period without going quasi linear and choking everything off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Beyond the obvious ML lapse rates, one of the underrated benefits of the EML is the initial CIN and tendency to keep things discrete at first. It's pretty hard out here to give a supercell room to breathe for an extended period without going quasi linear and choking everything off. CIN should be fairly weak this upcoming Saturday so I think things should fire up fairly quickly rather than having to wait. I just hope my area gets something good for once. It'd be nice to remember this summer for something other than dew points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 6 to 6.5 c/km is actually pretty good for SNE. We should be okay with shear/cape/trigger etc. I'm not a discrete snob, will take a squall line or mcs/mcc any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 we need eml advection... just looked at gfs bufkit and lapse rates stink this week yeah, that's one thing we have seen with these ridge episodes this year, and that's a well time plateau air mass ejection that gets absorbed into the ridge where it rattles around and drive temps to 100 and beyond -- if we got some of that, it would make the approach of dynamics more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALLACUS48 KWNS 150813SPC AC 150813DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0313 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2013VALID 181200Z - 231200Z...DISCUSSION...PATTERN FCST TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED SVRPOTENTIAL BETWEEN UPPER MIDWEST AND MID-ATLC/NEW-ENGLAND REGION.THIS MAY INCLUDE SWATH OF DAMAGING WIND ON ONE OR MORE DAYS WITHINDAY-4 TO DAY-6 TIME FRAME...AND RELATIVELY DENSE DIURNALCONCENTRATIONS OF MULTI-MODAL SVR CONVECTION OTHERWISE. TO SOMEEXTENT...SVR THREATS ON DAYS 5-6 DEPEND ON EACH DAY PRIOR...HOWEVERGIVEN OVERALL FAVORABLE PATTERN AND PROBABILITY OF STG BUOYANCY INPRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS...WILL MAINTAIN 30% AREAS FROM PREVIOUS FCSTWITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. BEYOND THAT...POTENTIAL BECOMES TOOCONDITIONAL FOR OUTLOOK. OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL/ECMWF...AS WELL ASENSEMBLES OF EACH...HAVE BECOME REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH EACHOTHER AND FROM RUN TO RUN WITH PATTERN EVOLUTION DISCUSSED BELOW.IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...ANOMALOUS COLD-CORE CYCLONE NOW OVER OK WILLMOVE SWWD TO SONORA AND GET ABSORBED INTO BROADER SUBTROPICALTROUGHING BY DAY-4/18TH-19TH. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE MOST OF CONUSTO ITS N AND NE...EXCEPT FOR CORRIDOR FROM NRN PLAINS ACROSS GREATLAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT INCREASE IN CYCLONIC CURVATURE ANDSTRENGTH OF FLOW OVER THAT BELT DAYS 4-7 WITH ACCOMPANYING SEWDMOVEMENT OF SEASONALLY STG COLD FRONT. FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTUREIS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF MIDWEST/NERN STATES AND SHOULDREMAIN SO PRIOR TO FROPA OR MCS USAGE. AS CYCLONE NOW OVER GULF OFAK DIGS SWD...PORTION OF INITIALLY CUT-OFF LOW OFFSHORE CA WILLEJECT NEWD THROUGH MEAN RIDGE OVER PAC NW AND BC DAY-3...THEN ESEWDACROSS SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO NRN MN DAY-4/18TH-19TH. SFCCYCLOGENESIS OVER DAKOTAS AND RESULTING MASS RESPONSE BENEATH SRNRIM OF FAVORABLE WNW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SVR THREATINCLUDING SUPERCELL RISK...POTENTIALLY EVOLVING UPSCALE INTO MCSOVERNIGHT AND MOVING EWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO UPPER GREATLAKES REGION.SYNOPTIC AMPLIFICATION ALOFT AND PERHAPS OUTFLOW SHOULD SHUNTLOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE AND CORRIDOR OF ORGANIZED SVR THREAT SWDDAY-5/19TH-20TH INTO VERY MOIST AND LIKELY HIGH-CAPE AIR MASS...WITHMID-UPPER WINDS NEARLY PARALLEL TO FRONTAL ZONE OVER MUCH OF AREA.CONTINUED MID-UPPER AMPLIFICATION/SWD SHIFT OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFTSHOULD OCCUR DAY-6/20TH-21ST...WITH SVR THREAT SHIFTED ACCORDINGLYEWD AND SEWD. ANY ORGANIZED SVR-WIND EVENT THAT DEVELOPS MAYOVERLAP PARTS OF TWO OUTLOOK-DAYS...EDWARDS.. 07/15/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 With the exception of one decent storm at the end of May, the severe season has been numbingly boring in Franklin County. Could be worse, we could be in the midst of a deadly drought of epic proportions. Oh wait, that was April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 With the exception of one decent storm at the end of May, the severe season has been numbingly boring in Franklin County. Could be worse, we could be in the midst of a deadly drought of epic proportions. Oh wait, that was April. Severe has been numbingly boring everywhere in MA, except if you live in Danvers, MA or Stoughton, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 I'm not a discrete snob, will take a squall line or mcs/mcc any day. I prefer the term connoisseur lol. At least out here the squall lines always seem to peter out as they descend the east slope and hit the river. You can pretty much count on a cool looking shelf, 30kts along the gust front, decent size droplets falling not too hard and if you're lucky maybe a few stray peas at the height before it washes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Beyond the obvious ML lapse rates, one of the underrated benefits of the EML is the initial CIN and tendency to keep things discrete at first. It's pretty hard out here to give a supercell room to breathe for an extended period without going quasi linear and choking everything off. Absolutely. This is really key. Look at 6/1/11... that supercell along the Mass Pike had a clear area of nasty inflow to the south with no junk in CT messing it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Absolutely. This is really key. Look at 6/1/11... that supercell along the Mass Pike had a clear area of nasty inflow to the south with no junk in CT messing it up. Yeah exactly. And the flip side were the supercells to the north, the first in Ashfield, the second near Northampton, that both might have gone tornadic with a continued feed of moist air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Yeah exactly. And the flip side were the supercells to the north, the first in Ashfield, the second near Northampton, that both might have gone tornadic with a continued feed of moist air. It was sort of a perfect storm too. The cap/EML helped suppress activity to the south and provided a clean channel for high theta-e air to race north. At the same time to the north where the cap had broken you had 2 separate supercells that were sending out some outflow boundaries that probably helped enhance SRH locally and maintained the tornadic circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 I was some numbers for the afternoon of June 1st near Springfield and wow, those are the highest combined values I've seen up in this part of the country... STP: 3.01SCP: 22 MLCAPE: 2500 EBS: 48 SRH: 400 ML LCL: 1000 4.22 (very high) on a scale of 0 to 5 for tornado probability. ("Q-tor") I'll say this before, a 5 (extreme probability) is only theoretical if each of the variables above were maxed out near climatoligcal highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 The lapse rates do kinda suck for what generally speaking is a good severe mcs set up. The lack of troughing in the west is cutting off the real low/mid-level warmth in the plains and the intermountain west from making good process east. How often do you see 600dm ridges in july in ohio with only 18 to maybe 19c 850s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 CORRECTED IMAGE...as mentioned below, I had the wrong month for 2011. Here is June 1st (not July 1st), 2011 and ML LR's according to this SPC re-analysis were near or just over 7.5°C/km in south-central Massachusetts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Speaking of ML LR's, I looked back at that June 1st, 2011 outbreak and the values were near or actually just below 6.5°C/km: that isn't correct. You're looking at July. They were more in the 7.5C/km range...maybe even 8c/km 700-500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Incorrect. Like Nick said, there was an EML present. Ekster and Banacos have a paper on this clearly stating that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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