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Severe Weather possible weekend of the 21st?


weatherwiz

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Thanks guys and I was filming from my car when the worst hit. As for damage there were limbs and trees down in the area and down to at least Burlington itself.

 

Great video!  I'm jealous, I haven't seen anything close to that here this year.  Boring severe season despite  Greenfield having a tornado warning back in May. 

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Time to start cleaning up...heard chainsaws going all night to get the town roads open for this morning. 12 hours without power and it may be at least tomorrow till I get it back. This town got hit hard.

The driveway will take some work to clear.

1013963_10101621033707320_477961491_n.jp

The yard is a mess...

944488_10101621033747240_615848215_n.jpg

Out by the mailbox, more trees down.

942706_10101621033557620_306283143_n.jpg

Lots of clean-up already started but wires still down...

969937_10101621033188360_1911275055_n.jp

The 6 mile Rec Path looks like a bomb went off with trees everywhere.

969015_10101621033273190_551081219_n.jpg

Damage.

75514_10101621033368000_1468582791_n.jpg

74908_10101621033432870_631363328_n.jpg

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Time to start cleaning up...heard chainsaws going all night to get the town roads open for this morning. 12 hours without power and it may be at least tomorrow till I get it back. This town got hit hard.

The driveway will take some work to clear.

1013963_10101621033707320_477961491_n.jp

The yard is a mess...

944488_10101621033747240_615848215_n.jpg

Out by the mailbox, more trees down.

942706_10101621033557620_306283143_n.jpg

Lots of clean-up already started but wires still down...

969937_10101621033188360_1911275055_n.jp

The 6 mile Rec Path looks like a bomb went off with trees everywhere.

969015_10101621033273190_551081219_n.jpg

Damage.

75514_10101621033368000_1468582791_n.jpg

74908_10101621033432870_631363328_n.jpg

Impressive pics...WOW!

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But but but but but I thought high dews always bing severe?

endless high dews bring endless daily thunderstorms and good severe weather. that's what we know. 

 

anyway...this event will be tough i think. if we can get a storm to go up, would think it could go severe relatively easily given the wind fields aloft and available instability...but seems best synoptic scale forcing passes to our NE and the best low level convergence is west and south of SNE. So we sort of end up in no-mans land. 

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Now that is some damage. That is what we want and why we like storms . That looks like 80 mph wind damage

I'm still saying that I think it was probably around 60mph...I think we had about a 5-10 minute period of sustained 30-40mph, but it would pulse up in these violent bursts that probably hit 60 or so, and that's when you would hear the trees crack.

I'm pretty versed in wind speeds from all my days watching winds for lift ops in the winter, and this was like summit winds following a nor'easter (like 50kt H85)....except it happened in a mountain valley that is usually sheltered from the high wind speeds due to the 3000 and 4000ft ridges nearby, and is ripe with full leafed out trees and a generally moist soil profile.

I am most impressed though with the mature trees that didnt uproot, but just snapped right off at the base. That's some power. But I still think 60mph is certainly more than enough to cause this damage to leafed out trees.

80mph would probably look more like a weak tornado with a higher percentage of trees getting tossed to the ground.

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These are the obs from Mansfield, about 3-4 miles away. The MNNV1 station height is 3,950ft so this is the upper bounds of the possible wind speeds.

The storm hit between 730-8pm (the time on the obs here's are UTC so subtract 4 hours)...

Easily see the 15-20 minute period the storm hit with a max gust to 86mph.

I'm not sure what wind you can mix down in a storm like this, but near 90mph at 4000ft is pretty decent kinematics for mid July.

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SPC finally decided to add most of SNE for Wiz

 

 


day1otlk_1300.gif
Categorical Day1 1300Z Outlook
 
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area SLIGHT 240,045 29,924,242 Columbus, OH...Boston, MA...Pittsburgh, PA...Cincinnati, OH...Worcester, MA...
 Forecast Discussion SPC AC 201249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY TO
NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

.
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i know. sometimes 40 will do it. that's why the entire state of CT can be w/out power with 50-60 mph gusts from TS Irene. 

The issues there was the length of the 40-50 mph winds--they lasted for 6 hrs...that will do the trick especially with saturated ground...I believe we had 4-6 inches of rain in the days prior to Irene.  Not to mention that CT has one of the highest density of forest per capita.

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The OKX observed sounding doesn't look too bad at all.  Nice to see the SPC finally bring back the SEE TEXT.  WE do have cloud debris to contend with but sfc temps are already very warm and with warm llvl airmass even peaks of sun will help the temps jump to near 90 in spots.  Combine that with dewpoints in the low 70's and decent mid-level lapse rates and we should become quite unstable today with adequate shear.  

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The OKX observed sounding doesn't look too bad at all. Nice to see the SPC finally bring back the SEE TEXT. WE do have cloud debris to contend with but sfc temps are already very warm and with warm llvl airmass even peaks of sun will help the temps jump to near 90 in spots. Combine that with dewpoints in the low 70's and decent mid-level lapse rates and we should become quite unstable today with adequate shear.

Mesoanalysis looks decent, we just need to get rid of all this CIN. I think we'll do okay, but isolated to scattered as opposed to a widespread event.
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The OKX observed sounding doesn't look too bad at all. Nice to see the SPC finally bring back the SEE TEXT. WE do have cloud debris to contend with but sfc temps are already very warm and with warm llvl airmass even peaks of sun will help the temps jump to near 90 in spots. Combine that with dewpoints in the low 70's and decent mid-level lapse rates and we should become quite unstable today with adequate shear.

Spc has us all in slight risk
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Mesoanalysis looks decent, we just need to get rid of all this CIN. I think we'll do okay, but isolated to scattered as opposed to a widespread event.

But that's an OUTBREAK in SNE.

Maybe one of you kind gentlemen could post a checklist of different parameters, maybe explain each and what the John Q should be looking for.

My forte is not severe, summer, winter, spring or fall... 

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But that's an OUTBREAK in SNE.

Maybe one of you kind gentlemen could post a checklist of different parameters, maybe explain each and what the John Q should be looking for.

My forte is not severe, summer, winter, spring or fall... 

 

There really isn't an ideal "checklist"...you just want to see a combination of several ingredients come together.  However, for Cape values (SBcape/MLcape/MUcape) you 'd like to see these values at least 1000 J/KG, LI values you'd like to see at least -2C, 0-6km shear values at least 30 knots, mid-level lapse rates at least 6 C/KM, weak height falls at 500mb, you'd like to have at least 20 knots of wind at 925/850mb, 25-30 knots at 700mb, at least 40 knots at 500mb, then you want to be in the right entrance region (or exit region) of an ULJ which is at least 80-90 knots.  You want surface dewpoints to be at least into the lower 60's and have dewpoints at 925/850 be in excess of 12-16C.  

 

What I mentioned here though are just like minimum requirements you would like to see when dealing with the possibility of one or a few strong to severe storms.  Obviously if you are looking for widespread severe or an outbreak you would want to see much higher numbers.  You also have to look at the synoptic setup as well and see if you have any sources of lift (cold front or pre-frontal trough is ideal), etc.  

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Sun isn't the problem today. Plenty of heating. Problem is all the dynamics are north and west

 

I just don't agree with that.  Shear will be increasing throughout the morning into early afternoon. 850 winds will be increasing to 30-35 knots and 500mb winds will be increasing to 40-45 knots...and these values are just to the west of southern New England.  Yes, we don't have the 50-60 knots at 500mb over us but the values I mentioned are more than sufficient, especially given the amount of Cape we have.  

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I just don't agree with that. Shear will be increasing throughout the morning into early afternoon. 850 winds will be increasing to 30-35 knots and 500mb winds will be increasing to 40-45 knots...and these values are just to the west of southern New England. Yes, we don't have the 50-60 knots at 500mb over us but the values I mentioned are more than sufficient, especially given the amount of Cape we have.

Right rear quad is to our north and boundary convergence blows
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