ORH_wxman Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 You have the weirdest rules of thumb. There's still a lot of questions for tomorrow. That is an understatement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 You have the weirdest rules of thumb. There's still a lot of questions for tomorrow. Well instead of making fun of posters Ike your other mod buddy Wee Willie Winky, how about discussing the pros and cons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 19, 2013 Author Share Posted July 19, 2013 Euro is quite unstable much like the GFS. Not sure what the deal with the NAM is. Pretty weird. The NAM also has some funky lookin soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Well instead of making fun of posters Ike your other mod buddy Wee Willie Winky, how about discussing the pros and cons? Might be worth looking at, though my guess is that there won't be a significant pattern either way. I really can't remember comparing severity of HW-ending events, but two exceptions to "more heat = less svr" that come into mind are the late summer HW in 2010 that ended with TS Earl, and CAR's greatest HW (for temp, 96/95/94 in May 1977) finished with a ripping hailstorm that practically rototilled my Ft.Kent garden. The plants weren't just crushed, they were gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Don't know about HW's going out in a whimper. One would think they're more likely to have the parameters which are more susceptible for in most cases isolated severe reports and in some widespread. But hey it's a perception and comment with no substantiated fact, sort of like stating it's to cold to snow. The popcorn storms have changed trajectory. Looking forward to tomorrows out with a whimper. We shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Definitely more uppity than this AM's discussion. ...UPPER OH VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES/CNTRL AND NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ONSATURDAY AS A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH THE SERN SIDEOF THE TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A COLDFRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM SRN QUEBEC SWWD INTO SW ONTARIO ANDSRN LOWER MI. THE MODELS SHOW CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THEFRONT SATURDAY MORNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING MAINTAINED INTO THEAFTERNOON...MOVING SEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...NY AND OH. DUE TO THEBROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE NERN STATES ALONG WITH LARGE-SCALEASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...A LINEAR MCS COULDDEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 18Z/SAT FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS PA INTOOH GENERALLY SHOW SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE WITH0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDPROFILES AND 30 TO 35 KT OF WLY FLOW AT 850 MB SHOULD BE FAVORABLEFOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELLS. HAIL WILL ALSOBE POSSIBLE WITH CELLS THAT HAVE ACCESS TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. THEMODELS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE LATE MORNINGAS SFC TEMPS WARM AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING MCS. FOR THIS REASON...THEGREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR EARLY IN THEAFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 My memory says that big heat ends exciting up here with big storms....but we are usually closer to best dynamics and forcing that often rides from the Great Lakes across NNE and southern Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 I think we may have some fun if the timing on the front can be maximized with the best heating of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 I think we may have some fun if the timing on the front can be maximized with the best heating of the day We should get fun storms to some degree... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 I think our storm chances are shot as the timing of the front will be overnight here. Look ing on radar that line is already just north of the New York border. But it should slow a bit as the trough digs in the Great Lakes, orientating itself more north-south than what it is right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 I think our storm chances are shot as the timing of the front will be overnight here. Look ing on radar that line is already just north of the New York border. But it should slow a bit as the trough digs in the Great Lakes, orientating itself more north-south than what it is right now. Western Maine mtns and Northern Maine may be under the gun with that line sliding along the border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 SPC just hoisted. This HW is not going out quietly. GL up there, should be an active evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Going to be some Flash Flooding for some with that line of training cells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 If they do hold together it will be a nocturnal event :/ . As for parameters everything you need is there. This heat is NC like and horrendous. I came here to escape this crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 19, 2013 Author Share Posted July 19, 2013 How much of CT/MA is not in a slight risk tomorrow is beyond me...hell, even with 30% probs. The GFS/Euro are very unstable tomorrow. The GFS has SBcape values as high as 2500-3500 J/KG across much of CT/MA with LI values as low as -9C. 0-6km shear increases to 30-35 knots. The LLJ is 25-35 knots which is pretty sufficient, and while mid-level winds could be stronger, 35-45 knots isn't too shabby. Not to mention being the the right entrance region of a 80-90+ ULJ streak. The focus for convection tomorrow will be a pre-frontal trough and the timing should be perfect. Besides a very nasty squall line, I think we see some supercells capable of very large hail, especially if we can get capes up to 3500 J/KG or even slightly higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 If they do hold together it will be a nocturnal event :/ . As for parameters everything you need is there. This heat is NC like and horrendous. I came here to escape this crap. lol, the Champlain Valley is a secret northern torch spot but its been hot even in the mountains. When 1500ft is hitting 90F, you know it's hot. But winter comes early up here so we at least don't have to endure the heat as long places further south. If these storms feed off the available moisture and heat (dew points pooling in the valleys this evening), we could have some awesome nocturnal storms. I love waking up to house shaking thunder and vivid flashes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 lol, the Champlain Valley is a secret northern torch spot but its been hot even in the mountains. When 1500ft is hitting 90F, you know it's hot. But winter comes early up here so we at least don't have to endure the heat as long places further south. If these storms feed off the available moisture and heat (dew points pooling in the valleys this evening), we could have some awesome nocturnal storms. I love waking up to house shaking thunder and vivid flashes. Very true. Nocturnal is no good for structure shots but a good light show is always fun. We will see if they are able to make the trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Someone will get a lot of rain out of that line entering the US now....as that trough digs in the lakes, that line will start to pivot, with the northern end slowing down and the southwest end speeding up. I'd say southern Quebec or northern NH/ME get some flash flooding tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Someone will get a lot of rain out of that line entering the US now....as that trough digs in the lakes, that line will start to pivot, with the northern end slowing down and the southwest end speeding up. I'd say southern Quebec or northern NH/ME get some flash flooding tonight. The rich get richer... another severe warning for Stowe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 The rich get richer... another severe warning for Stowe! Looks promising...haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 This could be good. These clouds are trucking overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Freak is going to damaged. Major major damage. Get out in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Here we go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Nice... you should be filming video of these things! Wall yesterday, Shelf today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 19, 2013 Author Share Posted July 19, 2013 I know this activity is linear but helicity is quite high and shear is strong and with high instability a tornado isn't out of the question...LCL's are rather high, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Best storm I've ever seen...I've got video of severe wind and will post when power comes back. Like 5+ minutes of freight train winds. Trees down all over the place. Roads closed too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 What a past couple of days for you...wow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Freak is going to damaged. Major major damage. Get out in itBump bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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