CoastalWx Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 On 7/19/2013 at 12:05 AM, weatherwiz said: I didn't see the 12z run...only saw the 0z run and that seems to have had a good handle on this. I don't know..one lonesome cell here. All the action up north as usual. We are a pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 19, 2013 Author Share Posted July 19, 2013 On 7/19/2013 at 12:06 AM, CoastalWx said: I don't know..one lonesome cell here. All the action up north as usual. We are a pit. It at least had the idea correct of something working through western MA and right about this time too actually. It did have more activity going on. I guess it all depends on how tough you want to be on grading these types of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 On 7/19/2013 at 12:09 AM, weatherwiz said: It at least had the idea correct of something working through western MA and right about this time too actually. It did have more activity going on. I guess it all depends on how tough you want to be on grading these types of models. They shouldn't be taken verbatim, but looking atthe 00z run...it seemed way overdone. Anyways, it didn't change my thoughts knowing the environment. We are just south of getting better convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 HRRR owned this here the last couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 19, 2013 Author Share Posted July 19, 2013 On 7/19/2013 at 12:28 AM, CoastalWx said: They shouldn't be taken verbatim, but looking atthe 00z run...it seemed way overdone. Anyways, it didn't change my thoughts knowing the environment. We are just south of getting better convection. Yeah it certainly was overdone which we all knew. Saturday is our day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Is that little cell strengthening by Bristol? See lightning and can hear it here....little guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 On 7/19/2013 at 1:05 AM, ice1972 said: Is that little cell strengthening by Bristol? See lightning and can hear it here....little guy weakening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 On 7/18/2013 at 8:42 PM, powderfreak said: Rotating wall cloud.... awesome watching this stuff. Wow that's an incredible pic!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 On 7/19/2013 at 12:28 AM, CoastalWx said: They shouldn't be taken verbatim, but looking atthe 00z run...it seemed way overdone. Anyways, it didn't change my thoughts knowing the environment. We are just south of getting better convection. I feel like as with any model during the summertime, convection is difficult to pin down. Like you are saying, having a knowledge of the environment is definitely important before reading too much into them. SPC WRF has been out there though, at least for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 btv wrf has been better for convection than spc wrf i check them almost every day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 On 7/19/2013 at 12:41 AM, dryslot said: HRRR owned this here the last couple days HRRR seems to be doing pretty well lately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 On 7/19/2013 at 3:04 AM, cpick79 said: btv wrf has been better for convection than spc wrf i check them almost every day! Yeah there are a ton of different WRF models out there from certain NWSFOs. Doesn't make it easy to pick one let alone realize which ones have been more accurate with convection and other parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 On 7/19/2013 at 3:09 AM, redsoxdude1714 said: HRRR seems to be doing pretty well lately... HRRR from early in the morning was pretty good for storm location today! Has been all summer almost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Saturday is the real deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 On 7/19/2013 at 3:46 AM, Ginxy said: Saturday is the real deal But it's already been hyped that frontal passages that end heat waves don't usually produce....or is that just a reverse psychology trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 On 7/19/2013 at 3:46 AM, Ginxy said: Saturday is the real deal for busts ...OH INTO PA...NY...AND NEW ENGLAND... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING NEAR A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM NRN OH NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HAMPER DESTABILIZATION IN AREAS. STILL...MARGINAL HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST DURING THE DAY WITH EPISODES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR FARTHER SW INTO WRN PA AND OH. HERE...STRONG HEATING AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS DESPITE MORE MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 On 7/19/2013 at 6:10 AM, free_man said: for busts ...OH INTO PA...NY...AND NEW ENGLAND... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING NEAR A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM NRN OH NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HAMPER DESTABILIZATION IN AREAS. STILL...MARGINAL HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST DURING THE DAY WITH EPISODES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR FARTHER SW INTO WRN PA AND OH. HERE...STRONG HEATING AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS DESPITE MORE MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES. We aren't even in a SLGT risk anymore?!?!? So much for that D7 prob... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 On 7/19/2013 at 6:17 AM, redsoxdude1714 said: We aren't even in a SLGT risk anymore?!?!? So much for that D7 prob... lol, yeah I'm a little surprised. But this threat has been waning in the models the past few days, at least a little, so the ramp-down makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 19, 2013 Author Share Posted July 19, 2013 The new day 2 makes zero sense to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 19, 2013 Author Share Posted July 19, 2013 I guess the SPC is riding the NAM with clouds limiting destabilization across the region. The GFS still looks pretty solid and the timing is nearly perfect. The GFS also has as much as 2500-3000 SBcape with MLcapes in the 1500-2500 range and LI values as low as -6C to -8C with 0-6km shear shear values in the 30-35 knot range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 On 7/19/2013 at 10:12 AM, Wx Hype said: What a laughing stock SPC has become. Hopefully a big day tomorrow. Today we're capped Yeah the flames on high with the lid on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 19, 2013 Author Share Posted July 19, 2013 How come for tomorrow GFS bufkit barely gets 1000 Cape at BDL, however, graphical products have as much as 2000-3000 SBcape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 On 7/18/2013 at 8:42 PM, powderfreak said: Rotating wall cloud.... awesome watching this stuff. Great photo! can you post a high rez version ...thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 NAM is just brutally boring tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 19, 2013 Author Share Posted July 19, 2013 On 7/19/2013 at 2:39 PM, CT Rain said: NAM is just brutally boring tomorrow. The NAm has been worlds different than GFS and euro...wonder if it has any merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 On 7/19/2013 at 2:46 PM, weatherwiz said: The NAm has been worlds different than GFS and euro...wonder if it has any merit. Euro is quite unstable much like the GFS. Not sure what the deal with the NAM is. Pretty weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Big heat typically ends with little fanfare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 On 7/19/2013 at 2:48 PM, Wx Hype said: Big heat typically ends with little fanfare ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 On 7/19/2013 at 2:49 PM, CT Rain said: ?Maybe it's just perception but it just seems like many of our long big heat waves we don't typically have a major outbreak of severe wx and more in the way of isolated or scattered stuff. Doesn't this one look that way to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 On 7/19/2013 at 2:53 PM, Wx Hype said: Maybe it's just perception but it just seems like many of our long big heat waves we don't typically have a major outbreak of severe wx and more in the way of isolated or scattered stuff. Doesn't this one look that way to you? You have the weirdest rules of thumb. There's still a lot of questions for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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