Contest: July 15-19 Temperatures @ ORD, DTW, STL

[Chicago WX]

Two days left, and the two hottest of the stretch, but here's the current standings based off what's happened so far (July 15-17). Things most likely will change with the hi max and min temps...and of course the TBD 7/19 max/mins.

 

1) Hoosier: 18

2) OHweather: 19

3) Brewers: 21 (0)

4) Thundersnow12: 21 (2)

5) Chicago Storm: 23

6) Stebo: 25

T7) Chicago WX: 29 (1)

T7) Geos: 29 (1)

9) Powerball: 31

10) Roger Smith: 39

 

[Roger Smith]

Given the format, the following update may be more relevant to comparing scores. These are the points that people are "stuck with" no matter what happens. For example, your high min is 73 but there's been a 77, you're stuck with at least four points. On the tiebreaker (LAF) Powerball is stuck with 2, everyone else zero.

 

This is what I came up with, looking at the values so far ...

 

ORD high max, Hoosier 1.

ORD low max, Roger Smith 4, Brewers and Powerball  1 each. 

 

ORD high min, Thundersnow12 has 1.

ORD low min, Brewers, Chicago Storm, OHweather, Stebo,  1 each.

 

DTW high max, Geos stuck with 2, Chicago Storm, Hoosier, OHweather and Powerball,  1 each

DTW high min, Hoosier, Powerball and Thundersnow12 are at 1 each.

 

STL high max, nobody yet stuck with points.

STL low max, Roger Smith  4, Stebo and Geos stuck with 2, Brewers 1.

 

STL high min, nobody yet stuck with points.

STL low min, Geos stuck with 2.

 

TOTALS for "stuck with" points, compared to "points so far" from previous post, in brackets

__________________________________________________________________________

 

1) Chicago WX: 0 (29)

 

2) Hoosier: 2 (18)

2) OHweather: 2 (19)

2) Thundersnow12: 2 (21)

2) Chicago Storm: 2 (23)

2) Powerball: 2 (31)

 

7) Stebo: 3 (25)

7) Brewers: 3 (21)

 

9) Geos: 6 (29)

 

10) Roger Smith: 8 (39)

 

To review, those are points that can't be made up by later events.

 

Now, you could add "almost guaranteed" points for predicted low max below current low max at ORD (89), DTW (90) and STL (91). Today has already reached those figures so it would be down to Friday, and current predictions are in low to mid 90s to high 90s possible. Those would change the above list as follows:

 

1) Brewers: 3 (21)

 

2) Chicago Storm: 4 (23)

 

3) Hoosier: 5 (18)

3) Chicago WX: 5 (29)

 

5) OHweather: 6 (19)

5) Powerball: 6 (31)

 

7) Thundersnow12: 7 (21)

 

8) Roger Smith: 8 (39)

 

9) Stebo: 13 (25)

 

10) Geos: 15 (29)

 

You could add any low min forecast that is below current values to this, except that thunderstorms could always produce the readings up to Friday evening, so I didn't go there.

 

In summary, my last table shows you how you really stand, going into the all-important last day of the contest ... assuming it hits the values already reached at the three stations, your further errors will be the sum of how little it warms above current max plus specific errors tomorrow. In my case, I need big-time heat later today or Friday plus close numbers on Friday to make up my deficit.

[Roger Smith]

Since ORD reached 95 on Thursday, add one "stuck with" point to each of Chicago Wx, Chicago Storm, Geos, Hoosier and Stebo.

 

This changes the "stuck with plus probable error" points to:

 

1) Brewers: 3 (21)

 

2) Chicago Storm: 5 (23)

 

3) Hoosier: 6 (18)

3) Chicago WX: 6 (29)

 

5) OHweather: 6 (19)

5) Powerball: 6 (31)

 

7) Thundersnow12: 7 (21)

 

8) Roger Smith: 8 (39)

 

9) Stebo: 14 (25)

 

10) Geos: 16 (29)

 

 

Now, this gets complicated but you can work out unavoidable points from the combination of certain forecasts for today (Friday) and other forecasts such as unreached max. By the time I work them out, the day will be over and we'll have the real scores. But I see that I am stuck with quite a few because my high max forecasts, which could still happen, weren't predicted to happen Friday (thought that Thursday was going to be the hottest day). Oh well.

 

I still think the final scores will be close for several and will depend on how hot it gets today in ORD and STL.

 

 

 

[Chicago WX]

78's across the board for today's morning/overnight min temps. ORD and DTW pending any storm development later today/tonight.

[Hoosier]

I have figured up the winner but I'll let Tim do the honors. Just a couple tidbits...

-it's a close finish for the top 3

-the best performer for any one location site was OHWeather (STL)

[Stebo]

I have figured up the winner but I'll let Tim do the honors. Just a couple tidbits...

-it's a close finish for the top 3

-the best performer for any one location site was OHWeather (STL)

At least I nailed the home location for the most part.

[Chicago WX]

Congrats to Thundersnow12 on winning the contest. It was a pretty close race for the top 3 or 4 spots.

 

1) Thundersnow12: 25

2) Brewers: 27 (0)

3) Chicago Storm: 27 (2)

4) Hoosier: 31

5) Powerball: 37

6) Roger Smith: 38

7) OHweather: 39

8) Chicago WX: 40

9) Geos: 49

10) Stebo: 52

 

 

[Hoosier]

At least I nailed the home location for the most part.

I think I botched the results for DTW. The 6 hour min temp for 7/19 was 72 but the climate report lists the min as 73. I dunno...it's kinda confusing.

[Trent]

I think I botched the results for DTW. The 6 hour min temp for 7/19 was 72 but the climate report lists the min as 73. I dunno...it's kinda confusing.

 

Yeah. The last 6 minutes of the day at DTW screwed up what would have been an impressive overnight low.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KDTW.html

 

The high of 95 and low of 78 stood until 11:53pm EST last night. But as you can see, a thunderstorm was rolling through in the final minutes of the day, causing the temp to drop 5 degrees in a couple of minutes to move the low from 78 at 11:53pm to a low of 73 at 11:59pm.

[Roger Smith]

I guess this reads fairly well then ...

 

"evil choice of days for the exact numbers with that front coming through, I assume the DTW min will be climat day and not morning low? Because on the maps consulted I would say 92/76 then dropping to what I predicted -- 73 -- in a late thunderstorm."

 

Fun contest anyway.

[Stebo]

Yeah. The last 6 minutes of the day at DTW screwed up what would have been an impressive overnight low.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KDTW.html

 

The high of 95 and low of 78 stood until 11:53pm EST last night. But as you can see, a thunderstorm was rolling through in the final minutes of the day, causing the temp to drop 5 degrees in a couple of minutes to move the low from 78 at 11:53pm to a low of 73 at 11:59pm.

 

Yeah when the rain hit last night, the temperature dropped like a stone, although I believe the low would have been 76 after the first temperature drop from 90 to 78 it actually dropped to 76 before climbing back to 78 by the next observation

[Stebo]

Yeah when the rain hit last night, the temperature dropped like a stone, although I believe the low would have been 76 after the first temperature drop from 90 to 78 it actually dropped to 76 before climbing back to 78 by the next observation

I went back and looked at my observations from last night, not only did the temperature drop from 78 to 73 before midnight, it did it in 4 minutes, as I had a SPECI go out at 57 past the hour and the temp was already down to 23c.