A-L-E-K Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 94/68 here. Some lowering of dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 19, 2013 Author Share Posted July 19, 2013 And of course, the dewpoints are mixing down into the 60s. I'm not giving up yet, but if this somehow manages to bust, then I'm done with this Summer. Forget this crap. Your area was never supposed to be the focal point in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 I'm watching CU build looking west along I-88. Vertical growth looks like its ready to go. LOT mentions weak/no cap in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 It already hit me, a non-supercell (just normal cell) came and gave some interesting rain curtains and waves. Tons of great shots outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Your area was never supposed to be the focal point in the first place. Michigan was in the 30%, I recall.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Should get some initiation soon. For what its worth, I dont know what to think at this point, but I just noticed the clouds here moving northeast at a decent pace. But on radar the little cell on the Wisconsin border is heading south east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Looks like some convergence starting to set up in the Prairie du Chien area.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Looks like some convergence starting to set up in the Prairie du Chien area.... noticed as well, we'll see if we can get enough to develope along the front for something better than widely scattered cells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 19, 2013 Author Share Posted July 19, 2013 Michigan was in the 30%, I recall.... His area was on the very southern fringe of the 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 His area was on the very southern fringe of the 30%. Still. I would consider that the main area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Storms now developing over Lake Huron will probably slam parts of Ontario between Goderich and Toronto including Stratford, K-W, Guelph, Brampton, Mississauga and metro Toronto in about 3-5 hours, wind damage and possible F1-2 tornado with these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 LOT meso update continues to paint a low confidence, highly isolated picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 92/68 at dupage county. Interested how its going to look in an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 92/68 at dupage county. Interested how its going to look in an hour early guess..94/66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 early guess..94/66 I was thinking along the front. Particularly south of Dubuque area . But temp wise im thinking to be steady 93/69ish for another hour or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 HRRR/NAM/Hi-res NAM keep trying to develop some time of squall line through Lower Michigan and Northern IN/OH tonight... whatever happens happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Confidence going down rapidly. I'm looking to punt the sh*t out of this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 92/76 at kfep.... but that is a very croppy area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Storms now developing over Lake Huron will probably slam parts of Ontario between Goderich and Toronto including Stratford, K-W, Guelph, Brampton, Mississauga and metro Toronto in about 3-5 hours, wind damage and possible F1-2 tornado with these. 3 lines now up there. one from Montreal to Oshawa, the 2nd one between the Kawarthas and the north side of York Region, and the 3rd one from Muskoka/Barrie towards Mount Forrest, Goderich, Grand Bend, and back into a broken section near I-94 in Michigan. Definitely a busy evening for where I think most of the models did light it up in Southern and Eastern Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Storms now developing over Lake Huron will probably slam parts of Ontario between Goderich and Toronto including Stratford, K-W, Guelph, Brampton, Mississauga and metro Toronto in about 3-5 hours, wind damage and possible F1-2 tornado with these. I'd like to believe that but I highly doubt it. The wall clouds that have already formed today in Cottage country haven't touched down. Its been quite an afternoon here, tons of amazing clouds and towers, 2 rounds of storms that were cells (last was somewhat part of the line) and 3 rounds of destabilization. I got lots of discrete activity, but they weren't that powerful so maybe it was a lost cause. No bolts at all that I saw. There has been some minor tree damage in some areas near southern Grey and surrounding areas. Been hearing loud thunder all afternoon. The overall system is faster than I expected but the mode of severe/convection is bang on. More strings of storms are lining up ahead of the biggest squall line and new discrete cells are just starting to pop near Kitchener, Mississauga, Toronto, etc. If these do nothing all of Ontario mostly will have had no severe thunderstorm expect those places near Ottawa, Midland, Orillia, and maybe some isolated areas in northern Bruce and Grey county. Dave Patrick just got streaming and he isn't near any cells, just the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 95/66 here. Punting. Radar is clear, I just don't see anything outside of an isolated storm popping up around here. Better luck next time, I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 It's becoming pretty clear that if there is any show to be had in southern WI/northern IL/IN etc it will be waiting until later this evening. Front is still pretty far north so it will be a while before the threat is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 One little cell fired up in Columbia County, WI. Caplan said to watch that cumulus cloud line showing up on satellite in central WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 It's becoming pretty clear that if there is any show to be had in southern WI/northern IL/IN etc it will be waiting until later this evening. Front is still pretty far north so it will be a while before the threat is over. yeah...hardly any shear or convergence around anywhere pre-frontal...in the areas you specified....although, I guess shear is starting to improve a bit in NW IL Edit: some fairly significant DCAPE in areas of southern wisco that could make things interesting when things start growing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 And of course, the dewpoints are mixing down into the 60s. I'm not giving up yet, but if this somehow manages to bust, then I'm done with this Summer. Forget this crap. I've been on these boards for quite a few years, and I believe this is the first time I've heard summer cancel. SPC still thinking something could fire for Powerball and Co. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 422 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A THREAT OVER MUCH OF LOWER MI THIS EVENING. COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY INCREASE THIS EVENING. DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THAT ONLY ISOLATED INTENSE STORMS ARE OCCURRING AT THIS TIME ACROSS WW 422 OVER LOWER MI...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CURRENTLY AFFECTING AREAS JUST NORTHWEST OF DET. THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE REGION HAS RECOVERED FROM EARLIER STORMS...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW NEAR 90F AND LITTLE INHIBITION REMAINING. THE MAJORITY OF MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD AND DEEP MIXING OCCURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND CAPE FOR A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. ..HART.. 07/19/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Its starting to look better now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Saw some elevated turkey towers to the north on the way home from work a bit ago. Some had some pretty good height, but were very skinny and quick to collapse. Watching the thing line of TCU north of Dubuque in hopes something pops soon. Some nice cape building over eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Storm west of Madison doing okay. Up to about 40kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Storm west of Madison doing okay. Up to about 40kft. was just looking at that one....should be hitting some stout CAPE in a county or 2....curious to see how she does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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