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July 17th-21st Severe Thread


andyhb

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Wait til tomorrow when it's basically the same thermodynamic environment with better shear...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

421 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 418 PM CDT...A DEVELOPING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GLEN ELLYN...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

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Two counties, and two regional municipalities have been under tornado warnings this afternoon around the Greater Toronto Area. There were very small cells.

I caught that and then right as I checked EC's warnings, the tornado warning was in effect for Allistion ON. I'm a bit surprised that they got going this afternoon and then just collapsed very rapidly. I didn't think they were small:

 

11rt2fp.png

 

Will be watching tomorrow very closely for the big event. I haven't seen one severe storm yet this year, if not tomorrow I'm giving up...until mid-August.

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Tomorrow looking a bit iffy for this particular area.  Feed of warm air just aloft in from the west with less than ideal surface convergence.  Storms are going to go for sure up the line over Michigan, and hopefully back towards northeast IL.  Hoping the "unzipping" affect is enough to get some action here on the western end of the setup. 

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That's a sweet picture Harrisale!

 

Like the way the low clouds, left of center look.

 

Thanks! It was a last minute chase, one of those watching the radar/sat then realize its something big and run out the door. Storm did not maintain itself very long after this point though, probably another half hour tops. Collapsed very quickly. Like I said beautiful anvil though, one of the best I've been around here in while.

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Noticed this in the 01z outlook:

CONSIDERABLE VEERING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEAR TO BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR LACK OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING.

We're going to have this same issue tomorrow at least in part of the warm sector.

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The 00z SPC WRF looks to have the main round early on and then fires up some scattered activity behind that.

 

The problem is, it is doing an absolutely horrible job with current conditions. Right now it says there should be a huge squall line in MN over to the UP of MI, which is about as far from the truth as you can get. What the SPC WRF does is keeps that stuff going all night and then reinvigorates it tomorrow.

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Great stuff LB. That run right there...my dream for today  :thumbsup: . Supercell over me at 3:00 pm?  :blink: 

 

Looks like tomorrow will remain a slight risk. Nicely placed tor probs for Ontario:

That might actually be a good thing, no jinxing and I find that under-played forecasts over-perform more than the opposite. Those are good probs for us, actually getting excited about it after a dismal severe season for myself.

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