Geos Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Yes andyhb, my average temp never rises above 83F and we were due for a cool summer but now I bet even this 'cool' summer will be at or above average. Even the cool summer have at least one hot spell. (except maybe 2009) Hopefully will get some good storms in the trade off Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Yes andyhb, my average temp never rises above 83F and we were due for a cool summer but now I bet even this 'cool' summer will be at or above average. Dude there is no such thing as being 'due' for anything in meteorology. Honestly we could have 7 above or below normal summers in a row. Furthermore 83 is an average which means you can be above or below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 00z NAM is more bullish with development west of the lake on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 00z NAM is more bullish with development west of the lake on Friday. On this side of the lake, NAM shows two rounds of convection. One line arrives here around 18z-21z with the pre-frontal trough, and then it blows up the main line of storms behind that, which move through during the mid/late evening hours (granted with a somewhat worked over atmosphere). Definitely a somewhat different solution from earlier. EDIT: 4km NAM is missing the pre-frontal line of storms entirely though, with much less convection west of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 On this side of the lake, NAM shows two rounds of convection. One line arrives here around 18z-21z with the pre-frontal trough, and then it blows up the main line of storms behind that, which move through during the mid/late evening hours (granted with a somewhat worked over atmosphere). Definitely a somewhat different solution from earlier. EDIT: 4km NAM is missing the pre-frontal line of storms entirely though, with much less convection west of the lake. I would be a bit skeptical of the pre-frontal line unless there is a major MCS up in the UP Thursday evening, then maybe you might have an outflow boundary spark stuff early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Holy mid level dry air on some of the NAM forecast soundings for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Holy mid level dry air on some of the NAM forecast soundings for Friday. DCAPE is going to be very high, probably going to be a high end MCS with this one especially with the added wind shear especially over Lower Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Holy mid level dry air on some of the NAM forecast soundings for Friday. Madison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Madison Damn, almost 6k SBCAPE good EHI too and some decent shear as well. 1700 DCAPE as well, very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Maybe someone could chime in on how the recent historic 600 dm heights might affect this system? Interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 GFS is not showing much for Friday. But we shall see. However, the GFS has been hinting at something for NE IL, SE WI and SW MI for the 23rd. It's been there for sveral runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 GFS is not showing much for Friday. I disagree with that. The overall signals haven't really changed and the model is generating widespread convective precip...that's about all you can ask for at this point. I did see one of the offices (can't remember who) mention that the high dews on the GFS may result in it being too generous with precip so that is something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Would expect a N/W shift or expansion of severe probs when the new day 2 outlook comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 18, 2013 Author Share Posted July 18, 2013 Would expect a N/W shift or expansion of severe probs when the new day 2 outlook comes out. Judging by the very potent instability and adequate deep layer shear, this may look to have moderate risk potential (primarily for an MCS) at some point, again assuming that convection tomorrow doesn't severely impact Friday (which it does look to be fairly far north, at least going by the outlooks for tomorrow and model guidance). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 30% probs extend down into northeast IL now with new day 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 I am a bit surprised no hatching especially considering the wind potential on this one and the huge amounts of CAPE. I guess they are probably waiting another model cycle before adding that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 I am a bit surprised no hatching especially considering the wind potential on this one and the huge amounts of CAPE. I guess they are probably waiting another model cycle before adding that. I don't like the SPC making this more of a mid Michigan threat. Not saying I disagree, but I don't like the looks of it being on the edge of the 30% mark with the center being north. Usually it means that most activity stays to the north of Detroit. Should still exist a chance for the Detroit area, but I won't be surprised if this remains more of a mid Michigan-Thumb threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 06z NAM is much improved, FWIW. It loses the pre-frontal convection, and maintains 3500-4000 J/K of SBCAPE the entire time. BTW, personally, I would much rather be on the SE edge of the higher probabilities, simply to account for any mesoscale changes (SE shifts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 forcing, convergence, and capping will be issues for Chicagoland...prospects look better further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 on the plus side, prime photo oppurtinity for some back lit towers to my southeast out over the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 forcing, convergence, and capping will be issues for Chicagoland...prospects look better further east GFS shows precip, and SPC has moved the Slight Risk area to cover the northern 1/3 of Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 prospects are better than they were 24 horus ago but the above are all mentioned as potential hindrances to convection by LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 NE MN/NW WI has been upgraded to moderate risk for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 New day 2 for Friday has ne IL and northern IN in 30% probs. Rather strongly worded possibilities for Chi town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 NAM hires sets things off at 5 - 6 pm tomorrow. A couple hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Strong Weather Dynamics Likely To Bring Severe Weather Friday Into Friday Night Across Southeast Lower Michigan http://weatherhistor...y-to-bring.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Two counties, and two regional municipalities have been under tornado warnings this afternoon around the Greater Toronto Area. There were very small cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Some isolated cells popping over NE IL right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Severe cell near Aurora... KARR 182038Z 29034G60KT 260V320 1/2SM +TSRA SQ SCT038 BKN055 BKN070 27/23 A3006 RMK AO2 PK WND 27060/2037 VIS M1/4V5 TSB16RAB27 P0018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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