Snow_Miser Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 From a nature article. http://www.nature.com/news/climate-change-the-forecast-for-2018-is-cloudy-with-record-heat-1.13344 Kind of surprised this hasn't been posted yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 "Experts" have been overestimating warming since the late 1990s. Closer forecasts are always revised cooler, but then this is almost always made up for by sharper rises forecasted further out. That big jump they've been waiting for since the last one with the 1998 El Nino remains elusive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 "Experts" have been overestimating warming since the late 1990s. Closer forecasts are always revised cooler, but then this is almost always made up for by sharper rises forecasted further out. That big jump they've been waiting for since the last one with the 1998 El Nino remains elusive. Will probably lose some credibility with this post but the government has the technology to geoengineer the planet. I don't think there are programs like chemtrails (which use particulates to reflect incoming radiation) that exist but would not be surprised if the Earth is being artificially cooled in some form. Aerosols are an important factor to consider here, and also the low solar activity. More than likely it is simply a miraculous conjunction of many natural and man-made factors that mask the warming signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 Will probably lose some credibility with this post but the government has the technology to geoengineer the planet. I don't think there are programs like chemtrails (which use particulates to reflect incoming radiation) that exist but would not be surprised if the Earth is being artificially cooled in some form. Aerosols are an important factor to consider here, and also the low solar activity. More than likely it is simply a miraculous conjunction of many natural and man-made factors that mask the warming signal. This is a pretty bold statement. Saying something miraculous is the likely reason for something happening. The easiest explanation is the GCMs are too sensitive to CO2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 This is a pretty bold statement. Saying something miraculous is the likely reason for something happening. The easiest explanation is the GCMs are too sensitive to CO2. I disagree, there is alot of potential warming "in the pipeline". Regardless of the sensitivity of the climate models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 I think they knew about the PDO, they just didn't believe it would have this much of an effect on preventing temperatures from rising. Now that their forecasts have busted horribly, they have no choice but to admit the elephant in the room -- that the PDO certainly has significant influence in the grand scheme of things. Problem is their forecasts will continue to be too warm because model simulations are not at the level of grasping cloud physics and the feedback that occurs w/ them, among other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 15, 2013 Author Share Posted July 15, 2013 I think they knew about the PDO, they just didn't believe it would have this much of an effect on preventing temperatures from rising. Now that their forecasts have busted horribly, they have no choice but to admit the elephant in the room -- that the PDO certainly has significant influence in the grand scheme of things. Problem is their forecasts will continue to be too warm because model simulations are not at the level of grasping cloud physics and the feedback that occurs w/ them, among other factors. 100% Agree with this. Amazingly, some are still denying the influence from the PDO as being significant. When the AMO goes negative and the cumulative low solar activity takes shape, then any predictions of rapid warming right after a short hiatus period are out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 100% Agree with this. Amazingly, some are still denying the influence from the PDO as being significant. When the AMO goes negative and the cumulative low solar activity takes shape, then any predictions of rapid warming right after a short hiatus period are out the window.why wasn't there any cooling during the last negative AMO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 why wasn't there any cooling during the last negative AMO? The last time we had -AMO phase we were in a +PDO phase (from the late 1970s to early 1990s). The last time both AMO and PDO were in negative phases at the same time was the mid 1960s to mid 1970s. Just to clarify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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