TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 We now have newly designated Invest 96 supposedly for a portion of Chantal remnants. BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al032013_al962013.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201307112043 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP Portion being the key word. If this reforms, is it classified as Chantal again or does it become Dorian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 The 8pm tropical weather outlook will probably sort things out wrt invest 96L. 8pm looks exactly like the 2pm TWO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Portion being the key word. If this reforms, is it classified as Chantal gain or does it become Dorian? The NHC is referring to this as the remnants of Chantal. Thus, it would likely be named Chantal if it were to redevelop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 This was on the NRL Tropical Cyclone Page NOTE: 96L and 03L are the same system. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Lolz, the subtitle of this thread is perfect. Nice job, wxmeddler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Lolz, the subtitle of this thread is perfect. Nice job, wxmeddler. When you aren't feeling a storm it makes me sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Lolz, the subtitle of this thread is *almost* perfect. Nice job, wxmeddler. *you're Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 12, 2013 Author Share Posted July 12, 2013 *you're You know, I thought about that for about 5 seconds, and I was going to go searching for it. But then I realized that I really don't give a darn. It's summer and my brain has a little "be back in late August sign" on it. However, since you pointed it out, I fixed it... just for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Appears to be some rejuvenation with Chantal if you look at the IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 12, 2013 Author Share Posted July 12, 2013 The 12z 4km NAM tries to bring a weak TS into the big bend in the next 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OFCHANTAL HAS MOVED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW CENTERED JUST TO THEEAST-NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE STILLLACKS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL ARE EXPECTED TOCONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH LITTLE ORNO DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OFBECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Looks to be, at least in my opinion, coming together quite quickly now. Would've been the perfect time for recon, but of course, it was cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 All I see is some sheared out thunderstorms. Not sure what you guys are looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Coming together quite quickly now. Would've been the perfect time for recon, but of course, it was cancelled. I think you should leave it to the experts to decide that. In fact this is from NHC 2pm DIsco: "A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N78W NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 23N80W AT THE COAST OF CUBA. THIS TROUGH REPRESENTS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ENERGY THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL. THE TROUGH HAS WEAKENED SINCE THE TIME OF THE 12/1200 SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW THAT IS AROUND WHERE IT WAS IS SOUTHERLY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN DOES NOT REFLECT MUCH OF A TROUGH ANYMORE." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 I think you should leave it to the experts to decide that. In fact this is from NHC 2pm DIsco: "A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N78W NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 23N80W AT THE COAST OF CUBA. THIS TROUGH REPRESENTS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ENERGY THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL. THE TROUGH HAS WEAKENED SINCE THE TIME OF THE 12/1200 SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW THAT IS AROUND WHERE IT WAS IS SOUTHERLY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN DOES NOT REFLECT MUCH OF A TROUGH ANYMORE." Why? Am I not allowed to state my opinion that it looks it's becoming better organized..? The low-level flow from what I can see on visible animations seem to indicate a surface low is at least trying to form underneath that convective canopy and the convective pattern is much better organized than it was several hours ago. Outflow is expanding in the northeastern semicircle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 They have to see it becoming better organized because it was at 10% and now its at 20% and if they are not expecting any development to occur it then raises the question of why bother raising the percentage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Why? Am I not allowed to state my opinion that it looks it's becoming better organized..? The low-level flow from what I can see on visible animations seem to indicate a surface low is at least trying to form underneath that convective canopy and the convective pattern is much better organized than it was several hours ago. Outflow is expanding in the northeastern semicircle. You can state whatever opinion you want, but I think NHC's opinion bears more weight. Anyway, this system has 24-36 hours of distinction left anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 ASCAT got a decent pass on Chantal, fwiw. I'm not seeing anything too exciting there, but excitement is subjective. We also get a serendipitous view of that thing in the Gulf. Doesn't look like much (yet?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Is the nearly naked swirl over the FL Keys a remnant portion of Chantal? An upper level feature? Just curious. http://www.wxforecaster.com/Satellite/Carribbean.html# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Is the nearly naked swirl over the FL Keys a remnant portion of Chantal? An upper level feature? Just curious. http://www.wxforecaster.com/Satellite/Carribbean.html# That's an upper low. It shows up well on the water vapor loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 That's an upper low. It shows up well on the water vapor loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-animated.gif The last 24 would have been the time Chantal probably surprised us. Thought I would even see more rain here from the remnants. Been quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 Over a 24-hour period on Tuesday and Wednesday, it blazed through the Caribbean at 31.4 mph, setting the record for being the fastest-moving system through the deep tropics, the National Hurricane Center said on Thursday. http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/broward/fl-fast-moving-storms-20130711,0,6181192.story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 Over a 24-hour period on Tuesday and Wednesday, it blazed through the Caribbean at 31.4 mph, setting the record for being the fastest-moving system through the deep tropics, the National Hurricane Center said on Thursday. http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/broward/fl-fast-moving-storms-20130711,0,6181192.story Wow. That's kind of cool to know, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Islanderbwoy Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 Rain storms from Chantal stretching down into the Cayman's. alot of Lightening. but also looks like storm from pacific side coming in right behind chantal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 This still cant be discounted, the MLC is still rather vigorous and I would position it at 18N 74W right over the northern part of Hispaniola so it should reemerge in a few hours and thats when IMO this may become a tropical storm again Should watch the surface trough in relation with the remnants of Chantal over the next two or three days. The 12z GFS and CMC indicate redevelopment as it heads for North Carolina/South Carolina, albeit only back to weak tropical storm status. The 12z 4km NAM tries to bring a weak TS into the big bend in the next 24 hrs. Looks to be, at least in my opinion, coming together quite quickly now. Would've been the perfect time for recon, but of course, it was cancelled. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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