yoda Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Looks like 00z GFS has Chantal as a wave at 12 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 10, 2013 Author Share Posted July 10, 2013 But wouldn't the 2-3 degree area south of where recon was flying be considered international waters? Thats pretty much equidistant between Puerto Rico and Venezuela. 200 nmi is from any land that they have is their airspace. Which is right on the southern extent of where they flew. It will be an open wave by the morning anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Airspace and waters are two different things, and the EEZ is a whole different thing entirely that has nothing to do with airspace. Under international law sovereign airspace is only 12 miles offshore (same as territorial waters). There is absolutely no legal standing for any country in the world to claim sovereign airspace 200 miles offshore (keep in mind people have to be able to get to the Dutch ABC islands as well). Has to be something more to this. If this is because of some Venezuelan threat or claim it's dammed embarrassing and they should fly the missions with F-15 escort and tell them to go f*** themselves. The US does maintain ADIZes (Air Defense Identification Zones) out to 200 miles but it's not "US Sovereign Airspace" and Soviet and then Russian bombers have routinely penetrated deep within the ADIZes and have never been shot down. Edit: The flight also flew within 40 miles of Isla Aves (west of Dominica) which is Venezuelan which didn't seem to be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Venezuela must have denied access to Maiquetia FIR/airspace. Matches up perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 If there is a closed center, it's South of the Western edge of PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 This thing is a joke. It shows how bad the last couple of seasons have been that we're even analyzing this piece of crap. Last year, two systems (Ernie and Sandy) each looked good for like 6 hr each. Oh, there was Michael, too-- for like 6 hr. We've simply forgotten what a healthy, normal tropical cyclone is. We've come to expect crap like this-- and so we sit here, scrutinizing a plate of scrambled eggs, playing games of Pin the Center on the Cyclone. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 This thing is a joke. It shows how bad the last couple of seasons have been that we're even analyzing this piece of crap. Last year, two systems (Ernie and Sandy) each looked good for like 6 hr each. Oh, there was Michael, too-- for like 6 hr. We've simply forgotten what a healthy, normal tropical cyclone is. We've come to expect crap like this-- and so we sit here, scrutinizing a plate of scrambled eggs, playing games of Pin the Center on the Cyclone. Ugh. Chantal is a early July bonus TC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Lol 2 am drops HW... weakens Chantal to 50mph... and Chantal is becoming disorganized as the header... and movement W at 30mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Chantal is a early July bonus TC... How is complete crap a bonus?? Bertha 1996, Claudette 2003, Dennis 2005, Emily 2005, Dolly 2008, Alex 2010... those those were early "bonus" storms. This is schlock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 This thing is a joke. It shows how bad the last couple of seasons have been that we're even analyzing this piece of crap. Last year, two systems (Ernie and Sandy) each looked good for like 6 hr each. Oh, there was Michael, too-- for like 6 hr. We've simply forgotten what a healthy, normal tropical cyclone is. We've come to expect crap like this-- and so we sit here, scrutinizing a plate of scrambled eggs, playing games of Pin the Center on the Cyclone. Ugh. Fook the Atlantic. Hasn't given anything good in years. WPAC is where it's at. Soulik is what's up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Pining for the fjords... Ate the salmon mousse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Sigh... recon had a chance to confirm the circulation was no longer closed but it seems they went well south and east of where the vorticity maxima is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Looks like an open wave racing W to me. The remnants or wave may continue W into the NW Caribbean after all. See ya in mid to late August... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Chantal still alive per 11 am Update... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Chantal still alive per 11 am Update... Yep... a few west wind vectors and Chantal is still kicking.... barely. The new forecast has it completely sliding under Hispanola, but running head first into stronger westerly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Convection firing since this am but nothing much to suggest it really has improved all that much. Interaction with land still coming and it still looks reasonably pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Had Chantal been a bit stronger and convection remained deep last night, it would have likely tracked further north / east with the deep layer steering. This would have resulted in greater land interaction in the short term, along with a swift kick of elevated wind shear, but Chantal would have likely made it to the region of lower shear and overall more favorable environment near the Bahamas. By having much weaker convection overnight, the LLC was a slave to the low-level easterlies. This saved it from the worst of the land interaction, but is steering the system into the region of strongest shear south of Jamaica. This is where 20 kt easterlies at the low-levels (quite typical in the Caribbean "dead zone", especially in July) are co-located with the southern end of an anomalous cutoff low (-1.5 sigma 500 mb heights) inducing 20 kt westerlies at the upper-levels. The end result... Chantal moving into an area of 30 to locally 40 kt wind shear. The weaker the circulation remains, the more dominant the low-level steering will be, further advecting the cyclone into the stronger shear and further weakening the cyclone, i.e. a negative feedback loop. Overall, Chantal probably doesn't have much future unless it can survive Cuba or makes it into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=ZlV6y9Z1CsY#t=138s Seen this before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 ..CHANTAL DEGENERATED INTO A WAVE... The fact that Chantal was able to survive the last 36 hours moving 30 mph is rather impressive. The convection has gotten marginally more organized today, but thats likely due to the land interaction with Hispaniola. Both the GFS and ECMWF depict little chance for regeneration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 its hard to believe John Hope has been gone 11 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 This still cant be discounted, the MLC is still rather vigorous and I would position it at 18N 74W right over the northern part of Hispaniola so it should reemerge in a few hours and thats when IMO this may become a tropical storm again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Disappointing it dissipated. especially since I'm in FLL. Looks like simply ugly beach weather for the weekend now. We'll see once it crosses the islands, not looking good for much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 its hard to believe John Hope has been gone 11 years. seems much longer than that the few times i watch their tropical coverage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=ZlV6y9Z1CsY#t=138s Seen this before... Haha I remember tracking (read: cursing) that storm back in the old GoPBI days and thought the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 This still cant be discounted, the MLC is still rather vigorous and I would position it at 18N 74W right over the northern part of Hispaniola so it should reemerge in a few hours and thats when IMO this may become a tropical storm again not when it's moving at 20+ mph into upper level westerlies. *Perhaps* if the upper level westerlies slacken off and the wave slows down, it may have a chance, but it's not going to do so within this environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Should watch the surface trough in relation with the remnants of Chantal over the next two or three days. The 12z GFS and CMC indicate redevelopment as it heads for North Carolina/South Carolina, albeit only back to weak tropical storm status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Should watch the surface trough in relation with the remnants of Chantal over the next two or three days. The 12z GFS and CMC indicate redevelopment as it heads for North Carolina/South Carolina, albeit only back to weak tropical storm status. Code Orange on the afternoon NHC Update: 1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTALEXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CENTRALCUBA AND INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGEBUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVELWINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FORDEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVESNORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENTATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OFBECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCERECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCEON FRIDAY...IF NECESSARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 If convection begins to boom won't be long before some related storms affect south Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 We now have newly designated Invest 96 supposedly for a portion of Chantal remnants. BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al032013_al962013.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201307112043 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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