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Tropical Remnant Chantal


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But wouldn't the 2-3 degree area south of where recon was flying be considered international waters? Thats pretty much equidistant between Puerto Rico and Venezuela. 

 

200 nmi is from any land that they have is their airspace. Which is right on the southern extent of where they flew.

 

It will be an open wave by the morning anyway...

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Airspace and waters are two different things, and the EEZ is a whole different thing entirely that has nothing to do with airspace.

 

Under international law sovereign airspace is only 12 miles offshore (same as territorial waters).

 

There is absolutely no legal standing for any country in the world to claim sovereign airspace 200 miles offshore (keep in mind people have to be able to get to the Dutch ABC islands as well).

 

Has to be something more to this. If this is because of some Venezuelan threat or claim it's dammed embarrassing and they should fly the missions with F-15 escort and tell them to go f*** themselves.

 

The US does maintain ADIZes (Air Defense Identification Zones) out to 200 miles but it's not "US Sovereign Airspace" and Soviet and then Russian bombers have routinely penetrated deep within the ADIZes and have never been shot down.

 

Edit: The flight also flew within 40 miles of Isla Aves (west of Dominica) which is Venezuelan which didn't seem to be a problem.

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This thing is a joke. It shows how bad the last couple of seasons have been that we're even analyzing this piece of crap.

Last year, two systems (Ernie and Sandy) each looked good for like 6 hr each. Oh, there was Michael, too-- for like 6 hr.

We've simply forgotten what a healthy, normal tropical cyclone is. We've come to expect crap like this-- and so we sit here, scrutinizing a plate of scrambled eggs, playing games of Pin the Center on the Cyclone.

Ugh.

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This thing is a joke. It shows how bad the last couple of seasons have been that we're even analyzing this piece of crap.

Last year, two systems (Ernie and Sandy) each looked good for like 6 hr each. Oh, there was Michael, too-- for like 6 hr.

We've simply forgotten what a healthy, normal tropical cyclone is. We've come to expect crap like this-- and so we sit here, scrutinizing a plate of scrambled eggs, playing games of Pin the Center on the Cyclone.

Ugh.

Chantal is a early July bonus TC...

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This thing is a joke. It shows how bad the last couple of seasons have been that we're even analyzing this piece of crap.

Last year, two systems (Ernie and Sandy) each looked good for like 6 hr each. Oh, there was Michael, too-- for like 6 hr.

We've simply forgotten what a healthy, normal tropical cyclone is. We've come to expect crap like this-- and so we sit here, scrutinizing a plate of scrambled eggs, playing games of Pin the Center on the Cyclone.

Ugh.

 

Fook the Atlantic. Hasn't given anything good in years. WPAC is where it's at. Soulik is what's up.

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Had Chantal been a bit stronger and convection remained deep last night, it would have likely tracked further north / east with the deep layer steering.  This would have resulted in greater land interaction in the short term, along with a swift kick of elevated wind shear, but Chantal would have likely made it to the region of lower shear and overall more favorable environment near the Bahamas. 

 

By having much weaker convection overnight, the LLC was a slave to the low-level easterlies.  This saved it from the worst of the land interaction, but is steering the system into the region of strongest shear south of Jamaica.  This is where 20 kt easterlies at the low-levels (quite typical in the Caribbean "dead zone", especially in July) are co-located with the southern end of an anomalous cutoff low (-1.5 sigma 500 mb heights) inducing 20 kt westerlies at the upper-levels.  The end result... Chantal moving into an area of 30 to locally 40 kt wind shear.  The weaker the circulation remains, the more dominant the low-level steering will be, further advecting the cyclone into the stronger shear and further weakening the cyclone, i.e. a negative feedback loop. 

 

Overall, Chantal probably doesn't have much future unless it can survive Cuba or makes it into the Gulf. 

 

post-378-0-22490600-1373474948_thumb.gif

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..CHANTAL DEGENERATED INTO A WAVE...

 

The fact that Chantal was able to survive the last 36 hours moving 30 mph is rather impressive. The convection has gotten marginally more organized today, but thats likely due to the land interaction with Hispaniola. Both the GFS and ECMWF depict little chance for regeneration.

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This still cant be discounted, the MLC is still rather vigorous and I would position it at 18N 74W right over the northern part of Hispaniola so it should reemerge in a few hours and thats when IMO this may become a tropical storm again

 

not when it's moving at 20+ mph into upper level westerlies.  *Perhaps* if the upper level westerlies slacken off and the wave slows down, it may have a chance, but it's not going to do so within this environment.

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Should watch the surface trough in relation with the remnants of Chantal over the next two or three days. The 12z GFS and CMC indicate redevelopment as it heads for North Carolina/South Carolina, albeit only back to weak tropical storm status.

Code Orange on the afternoon NHC Update:

 

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTALEXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CENTRALCUBA AND INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGEBUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER-LEVELWINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FORDEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVESNORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENTATLANTIC.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OFBECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AN AIR FORCERECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCEON FRIDAY...IF NECESSARY.
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