Geos Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 quickly dieing out Yeah it's getting strung out. Looks like a dry frontal passage for pretty much everyone in the LOT to DVN cwa's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 focus now moves to this weekend, unfortunately for me, I will not get a close look at things till Thursday as I have a 10 hour day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 What a lame waste of strong instability. It's like grilling out some nice steaks and before you get a chance to eat them they get thrown in the trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 What a lame waste of strong instability. It's like grilling out some nice steaks and before you get a chance to eat them they get thrown in the trash. agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Initiation occurring west of DBQ...Towering CU along the rest of the front. Locked and loaded for a lightning photo op. lol...Or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 That one cell in iowa is off a boundary that's been moving in Wisconsin past couple hours I believe. Im on my phone right now looking at the radar, and it looks like that boundary will move through N. Illinois in the next few hours. Thoughts on any initation to occur on the way here? because it seems whatever pops up, it struggles and dissipates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 lol...Or not. Pretty depressing considering our multi-day setup was whittled down to just this one day, and then it ends up being a non-event. Not much action for the next week or so either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 What a lame waste of strong instability. It's like grilling out some nice steaks and before you get a chance to eat them they get thrown in the trash. Good analogy! lol I think the front passed MSN by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 The strong storm went poof just before reaching my house on the west side of CR. I did not want to go out and prepare the gauge/downspout/plants so I'm happy to see it vanish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 The strong storm went poof just before reaching my house on the west side of CR. I did not want to go out and prepare the gauge/downspout/plants so I'm happy to see it vanish. I did exactly that earlier today, just to see the line weaken from nice, solid orange and red to dark, then light green right over me. Just enough rain to wet the ground and annoy me while it dumped pretty good just a mile to the north and south of here. Saw one c-c lightning bolt. With this humidity, I would have gladly stood out in the rain to cool off. Even the basement is warm and muggy. It's usually pretty cool and dry down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 I did exactly that earlier today, just to see the line weaken from nice, solid orange and red to dark, then light green right over me. Just enough rain to wet the ground and annoy me while it dumped pretty good just a mile to the north and south of here. Saw one c-c lightning bolt. With this humidity, I would have gladly stood out in the rain to cool off. Even the basement is warm and muggy. It's usually pretty cool and dry down there. Its currently 79°... with dewpoint at 76°, and humidity at 91%. The humidity is relentless. Still sweating at 12am. Like a sauna. Like posted previously, damn waste of energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Saw a freeway interchange light tower get smoked by a CG while driving home, and the thunder can be summed up in one word.... LOUD is that word lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Still 74, dewpoint 71 and humidity is 91%. I have a large, old-style window fan blowing out the back of the house and drawing "cooler" air in through the other side. Unfortunately, it's so damp it is like bordering on fog. There's patchy fog in the point forecast... who'd have guessed? Stebo... I was laying in bed a bit ago and saw lightning to the north. Nothing at all on radar around Genesee co., so it must have been "heat lightning" from those storms to the south. The closest thing anywhere north that would have lightning was west of Gaylord. Could have been from there, I suppose, I didn't go out to investigate. I just know it wasn't from anything local. How close were you to that light pole? I had one hit the top ground wire of the powerlines in my backyard last year ... like 50 feet away. Needless to say, I went in the house after that. My hair stood up and everything. I heard a sizzle, crack and a boom that was probably 120 decibels or better. My ears rang for like five minutes. The ozone smell hung around for probably ten minutes... like the smell old electric trains make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Still 74, dewpoint 71 and humidity is 91%. I have a large, old-style window fan blowing out the back of the house and drawing "cooler" air in through the other side. Unfortunately, it's so damp it is like bordering on fog. There's patchy fog in the point forecast... who'd have guessed? Stebo... I was laying in bed a bit ago and saw lightning to the north. Nothing at all on radar around Genesee co., so it must have been "heat lightning" from those storms to the south. The closest thing anywhere north that would have lightning was west of Gaylord. Could have been from there, I suppose, I didn't go out to investigate. I just know it wasn't from anything local. How close were you to that light pole? I had one hit the top ground wire of the powerlines in my backyard last year ... like 50 feet away. Needless to say, I went in the house after that. My hair stood up and everything. I heard a sizzle, crack and a boom that was probably 120 decibels or better. My ears rang for like five minutes. The ozone smell hung around for probably ten minutes... like the smell old electric trains make. I was probably under a half mile, it happened at I-94 and M-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 I was probably under a half mile, it happened at I-94 and M-10. Know right where that is... I used to commute to work from Flint to Mack & Jefferson. That had to be as bright as it was loud! Once I was driving home in the middle of the night and a bolt hit something maybe 1000 yds in front of me. I had to pull over for a few because I had this big red streak burned into my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 I'm perfectly fine with tonight being a bust. This will help Detroit make a last minute rally for its first 90*F high and severe weather before the cold front passes through tommorrow with ample morning sunshine. Instability is certainly impressive already for this time of day but that cap ain't gonna break easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Instability is certainly impressive already for this time of day but that cap ain't gonna break easy DTX seems moderately confidence that we'll at least one round midday. Sky cover is meh, with a mix of hazy sunshine and low stratocumulus. But still, no convective debris. It depends on how fast we can reach the convective temperature before the frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Eh. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1367NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0757 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL IL AND NORTHERN/CENTRALINDIANA TO WESTERN OHCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 101257Z - 101530ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENTSUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL INCLUDING HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ISEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOONFROM NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL INDIANA ANDEVENTUALLY WESTERN OH. WHILE A WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOTIMMINENT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHCOULD BECOME NECESSARY BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE INCREASED EARLY THISMORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IL...WITH SOME OF THESESTORMS HAVING STRONGER-TYPE MULTICELL/TRANSIENT SUPERCELLULARCHARACTERISTICS. THESE STORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR ASOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT...ON THE NORTHEASTERN FRINGE OFONGOING STORMS/SURFACE COLD POOL AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED MCV FROMEAST-CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHERN IL. THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROMLINCOLN IL SAMPLES AROUND 3500 J/KG OF MLCAPE IN THE PRESENCE OFRELATIVELY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT /LOWER TO MIDDLE 70SF SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ AND NEARLY 7.0 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THISOBSERVED SOUNDING...AND OTHER REGIONAL DERIVED WIND DATA...SAMPLESTHE EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ACROSS IL/NORTHERNINDIANA/LOWER MI WITH 35-40 KT WESTERLIES BETWEEN 3-6 KM.ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT CLOUD BREAKS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS NORTHERNINDIANA/OH IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILLQUICKLY HEAT AND BECOME WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATE-STRONGLYUNSTABLE...WITH MODIFICATIONS TO 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SUGGESTINGTHAT SURFACE BASED STORMS/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL BECOME MOREPROBABLE AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 80S F. INALL...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR STORMS TO INCREASE/INTENSIFY ALONG THECOLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF IL/INDIANA/OH INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SUCHTHAT A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION FOR A SEVEREHAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT VIA ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS ANDPOSSIBLY SOME SUPERCELLS...GUYER/THOMPSON.. 07/10/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Honestly the cap doesn't seem too horrible on DTX's 12z sounding. We'll see if anything can get going in a few hours. I'm about 10 miles NE of where I'm usually located, and really, it wouldn't surprise me if that makes all the difference w/ regards to seeing any action today. Parameters seem to support gusty winds with any storm that develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Instability is certainly impressive already for this time of day but that cap ain't gonna break easy 10:15AM. SPC mesoanalysis says 3000-3500 CAPE for southern Michigan. I've rarely seen CAPE that high at the 10:00 hour in northern states. 500mb winds are about 40 knots in this area. Maybe I can chase something near me. Mesoscale discussion already in the area. SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL INCLUDING HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN OH. WHILE A WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT IMMINENT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 There is no cap in place in NE Indiana and NW Ohio with CAPE ranging from 3000-4000 j/kg and it's only 11:20. PWATS also closing in 2, kinda sick of this oppressive humidity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI437 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2013MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-110845-MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-437 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2013THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHTTHUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMSAPPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGINGWIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH...BUT HALF INCH HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL AREALSO POSSIBLE. STORM MOTION WILL BE WEST TO EAST AT 40 MPH.THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME OF THEMORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH GREATER CHANCES TOWARDTHE OHIO BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVESOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING TOSOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BRING AND END TOTHE STORM POTENTIAL. LOL! Are they in the same Michigan that I am? And then the point forecast calls for a high of 83. It's noon, and Mostly Cloudy 86°F 30°C Humidity63% Wind SpeedW 8 mph Barometer29.81 in (1008.7 mb) Dewpoint72°F (22°C) Visibility10.00 mi Heat Index92°F (33°C) Last Update on 10 Jul 11:53 am EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 The storm near Indianapolis seems to be a larger storm. It has the look for a bow echo. Possibly several wind reports could come out of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 NOAA receiver just went off... a SVR watch for ONE county... Oakland. How odd is that? Okay... KIH29 must trigger for Oakland county... hence only one county in the watch, which is actually: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH406 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREASIN MICHIGAN THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIESIN SOUTHEAST MICHIGANLENAWEE MACOMB MONROEOAKLAND ST. CLAIR WASHTENAWWAYNE And several dozen counties in surrounding states. I see some storms been riding the MI/IN/OH border for a while, only warning thus far is for counties northwest of Fort Wayne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Consistent, if that's the word, wind with the storms moving through here. Nothing crazy, but gusty enough. Pouring buckets as well. Not saying much, but probably the best storm of the year in the LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 The storm near Indianapolis seems to be a larger storm. It has the look for a bow echo. Possibly several wind reports could come out of that. Yeah that blew up to the south pretty fast. I see it has a warning on it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 There is no cap in place in NE Indiana and NW Ohio with CAPE ranging from 3000-4000 j/kg and it's only 11:20. PWATS also closing in 2, kinda sick of this oppressive humidity 76 dewpoint here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 76 dewpoint here.... 72 here... looks like the fropa is roughly Ludington - Grayling - Alpena line thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Enjoy the storms to the south. Skilling saying the jet stream overhead last night created sinking motion, which prevented storms further north. The lid is off now though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.