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July 8-10 Severe Threat


Hoosier

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Impressive rainfall rates in SE WI. (not quite as intense the GTA experienced though).

 

1.76"/hr, Caledonia, WI by Racine, WI.

1.92"/hr, Milwaukee, WI

1.96"/hr, Shorewood, WI

0.76"/hr, Oak Creek, WI

 

Edit: Another storm commencing.

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The southern end of the line built up quite nicely. Heavy rain and constant thunder here. Not severe though.

 

Seems like the air is thick enough to cut with a knife right now. Rain down for now.

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SWS Just issued for parts of Southern Ontario for the potential of strong thunderstorms tonight/tomorrow. 


176 
WOCN11 CWTO 091848
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:48 PM EDT
TUESDAY 9 JULY 2013.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR:
=NEW= CITY OF TORONTO
=NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
=NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON
=NEW= ELGIN
=NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX
=NEW= SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
=NEW= DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND
=NEW= OXFORD - BRANT
=NEW= NIAGARA
=NEW= CITY OF HAMILTON
=NEW= HALTON - PEEL
=NEW= YORK - DURHAM
=NEW= HURON - PERTH
=NEW= WATERLOO - WELLINGTON
=NEW= DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
=NEW= GREY - BRUCE
=NEW= BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND
=NEW= PARRY SOUND - MUSKOKA
=NEW= HALIBURTON
=NEW= ALGONQUIN
=NEW= BURK'S FALLS - BAYFIELD INLET.

      STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVOURABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL.

THE LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF THE STORMS IS VERY UNCERTAIN.
ENVIRONMENT CANADA WILL MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED THIS EVENING AS MORE DATA
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO MONITOR FUTURE STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS
CLOSELY.

END

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moisture transport improving behind the line of showers in the LOT region...PWATs behind the line also rebounding up to 2.2...ample clearing...I suppose there should/could be some left over boundaries from the more organized convection in Eastern Iowa earlier today to possibly get something going later this afternoon

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 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

   0300 PM CDT TUE JUL 09 2013

   VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL

   PLAINS EWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

   TWO PRIMARY CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS OUTLOOK.

   FIRST...REMOVED SLIGHT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF WI/NERN MN WHERE

   STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF MORNING CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD

   COVER HAVE MITIGATED AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION...WITH VALUES

   GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM CANNOT BE

   RULED OUT WHERE MODEST ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IN THE VICINITY OF

   SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS

   PRESENT...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SPARSE FOR 15 PERCENT

   PROBS AND SLIGHT RISK.

   THE SECOND SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS TO EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK FARTHER

   WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF IOWA WHERE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION HAS

   OCCURRED IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN

   THE LOWER TO MID 70S RESIDE BENEATH ERN EDGE OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL

   LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG.

   EFFECTIVE SHEARS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH A SVR

   WIND AND HAIL THREAT WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.

 

 

 

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Destabilization has rapidly occurred in the wake of early activity across IA/SW. WI/N. IL. Nice CU field in part of the area too...

The question is will frontal forcing and a weak wave be enough to pop decent storms.

 

If northeast IA goes like it looks like it could, should come right at you.

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Destabilization has rapidly occurred in the wake of early activity across IA/SW. WI/N. IL. Nice CU field in part of the area too...

The question is will frontal forcing and a weak wave be enough to pop decent storms.

 

Really nice supercell composite and significant tornado parameter increases towards 00z-01z across north central illinois if something can go

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