Chinook Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 I have made it to Iowa today. I am going to guess that Iowa City, Davenport, and up to southwest Wisconsin will be where storms initiate tomorrow. I think there will be several hail/wind reports in southern Wisconsin, and continuing over to SW Michigan. I may get a chance to follow one of the clusters across Illinois. Looking at some of the hi-res models, I think there are several possibilities for severe storms across the region. The highest CAPE will be in Iowa and western Illinois. There will be some higher 0-3km helicity also in IA/western IL, but weaker helicity and 0-6km shear in other areas. Here's an interesting one for you Wisconsin members: The 12z run of the 4km NAM shows a bow echo type shape in SW Wisconsin in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 ssc is the ultimate single season poster Etobicoke was one of the hardest hit areas of Toronto where hundreds of homes were flooded so he's either with no power, or flooded out, or a single season poster. Hope he's okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Wow, 4-6' of water on the Richmond Hill Line in Toronto. 1000 passengers had to be/or are still being rescued. Train has been stuck since 5:30. --- Yeah Chinook, that seems to be the popular area for storms to fire this summer. DLL can attest to that! That area north of Dubuque is totally water logged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Well the environment in IA tomorrow will be conducive for tornadoes, just depends if things play out right and you get discrete convection at the right time. Pressures fall across the circled area in response to p-falls and you get great directional shear. Sky high PWATS tomorrow evening too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 People still being pulled off that GO train in Toronto! ...6 hours after it got stuck. An image from CP24. 250,000 customers without power atm. Wow, in 1 hour at YYZ, 74 mm fell, which is the average July rainfall (74.4mm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 ssc is the ultimate single season poster He's 99.9% winter only. Though I am a bit surprised he hasn't popped on with this epic flooding in the Toronto area. But maybe he doesn't have power... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Some nice decent lightning earlier with zero precipitation. Beautiful to sit outside atmosphere. Kinda itches me to go to the lake. Regarding tomorrow, IMO we'll see how it shapes up in the next 6-8 hours. and the usual morning afternoon count down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Well the environment in IA tomorrow will be conducive for tornadoes, just depends if things play out right and you get discrete convection at the right time. Pressures fall across the circled area in response to p-falls and you get great directional shear. Sky high PWATS tomorrow evening too. Untitled.png namCGP_con_pwat_027.gif Wow that might be some of the highest theta-e and PWAT values I have ever seen modeled. Needless to say anything that forms in Iowa is going to come with a ton of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 9, 2013 Author Share Posted July 9, 2013 Granted I have not spent a lot of time on this setup but deep layer shear seems kinda marginal with eastward extent tomorrow per models. Might be a bring your own shear situation as Mr Izzi coined a while back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 If morning convection/clouds actually stay away from Iowa (yeah right) it could be pretty interesting. As usual, it's a big time conditional threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Another dramatic shot from Mississauga earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Lightning in Iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Well the environment in IA tomorrow will be conducive for tornadoes, just depends if things play out right and you get discrete convection at the right time. Pressures fall across the circled area in response to p-falls and you get great directional shear. Sky high PWATS tomorrow evening too. Untitled.png namCGP_con_pwat_027.gif Heading out tomorrow Tsnow12? We're departing Peoria, IL for Waterloo, IA bout 10 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Heading out tomorrow Tsnow12? We're departing Peoria, IL for Waterloo, IA bout 10 AM Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Nope Why not? You busy or just don't feel like going lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 9, 2013 Author Share Posted July 9, 2013 30/30/5 on the new outlook. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 AM CDT TUE JUL 09 2013 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS... ..SYNOPSIS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DIG SEWD AND AMPLIFY AS IT ENTERS THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING...AND THEN PROGRESSES EWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AN EML WILL SPREAD FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY. ..UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MCS LOCATED OVER THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO ENTER PORTIONS OF MN BY MID MORNING. OTHER STORMS OCCURRING WITHIN WAA REGIME TIED TO A 30 KT LLJ WERE SPREADING E ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO ERN IA BY MIDDAY. A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE COINCIDENT WITH THE IA CONVECTION WILL MOVE ESEWD INTO LOWER MI AND THE MID OH VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...AND MAY AID IN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. BEHIND THE DEPARTING MORNING STORMS...SWLY WINDS AT 850 MB WILL AID IN ADVECTING A WARM EML AIRMASS NEWD TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. RICH MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S/PW VALUES LOCALLY NEAR 2.0 INCHES IS FORECAST TO BE PRESENT FROM ERN NEB INTO SRN MN AND WRN IL. GIVEN MORNING CLOUDS/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLEARS THE AREA...STRONG HEATING WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. BY MID AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED FROM NERN NEB INTO E-CNTRL MN. THIS FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SEWD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS FROM THE NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. FRONTAL FORCING COMBINED WITH THE VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOW-LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL VEER TO WNWLY IN THE MIDLEVELS AS A 40-60 KT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX SPREADS SEWD BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WIND PROFILE COMBINED WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...WITH LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES POSSIBLE. SEWD MOVING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A QUICK TRANSITION TO A LINE WITH THE DOMINANT SEVERE THREAT EVOLVING TO DAMAGING WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 I completely agree with the SPC outlooks for day one, as a matter of fact, I was kind of perplexed by the afternoon day 2 outlook posted earlier on 07/08, based on the more consistent Euro output I thought the center line of the 30% risk area should run from DMX to Green Bay. With the hatched hail risk overlaid with the 30% wind outlook I could see some wind driven 2" hail events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Assuming that complex moving into W MN doesn't screw things up (or the junk further south/east organizing), the 6z NAM is looking pretty robust across much of Central and Eastern IA from 18z-00z tomorrow afternoon/evening. I'm liking that Waterloo-Dubuque US 20 corridor for something, perhaps extending northward towards La Crosse later on. That said, the 6z GFS and the SPC WRF seem to be in agreement on a further south solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Iowa is increasingly active this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Uncertainty in the latest day 1 outlook. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0747 AM CDT TUE JUL 09 2013VALID 091300Z - 101200Z...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR THEUPPER MS VALLEY TO ERN NEB AND NRN KS......MID-UPPER MS VALLEY TO ERN NEB/NRN KS THROUGH TONIGHT...A COMPLICATED SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING THIS MORNING WITH ONGOINGCONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ACROSS MN/IA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEADSHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MCV. MEANWHILE...THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC TROUGHAND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE FARTHER BACK TO THE NW ACROSS THEDAKOTAS/MT. IT APPEARS THAT THE ONGOING STORMS IN MN/IA WILLPERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WHILE DEVELOPING EWD/SEWD ALONG THE PRIMARYWARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS NW-SE FROM CENTRAL MN TO SRN WI. THECONVECTION WILL BE FED BY A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 68-72 FDEWPOINTS...AND RESULTANT MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THESTORMS WILL TEND TO OVERTURN THE RICHEST CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVELMOISTURE RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL/SE MN...ERNIA...SRN WI...AND NRN IL.VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WITHIN THE UNSTABLE WARMSECTOR IN ADVANCE OF THE STORMS THIS MORNING BASED ON VWP/S AND 12ZSOUNDINGS. THUS...WHILE SOME DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BEPOSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL STORMS...THIS EARLY CONVECTION COULDDETRIMENTALLY IMPACT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERESTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC WAVE AND COLDFRONT MOVE SEWD ACROSS ERN SD AND MN INTO IA THIS EVENING. SOMELOW-LEVEL RECOVERY IS MORE PROBABLE FARTHER S INTO ERN NEB/IA INCLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LESS DISTURBED UPSTREAM WARM SECTOR...WHERETHE MORNING CONVECTION IS LESS WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILLREMAIN A LITTLE S OF THE STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW/VERTICALSHEAR...AND STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING IS ABIT UNCLEAR.THUS...WILL FOCUS THE RELATIVELY HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN ADVANCE OFTHE MORNING STORMS WHICH COULD INTENSIFY SOME BY MIDDAY/EARLYAFTERNOON INTO WI...THOUGH WILL STILL ALLOW SOME POTENTIAL FORADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE WAKEOF THE MORNING STORMS. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS NOTPARTICULARLY HIGH WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE STORM COVERAGE ANDCONVECTIVE MODE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Starting to look like a longer-ish duration soaker event for LOT....raises prospects for flash flooding and leaves severe potential limited...will have to see how unstable things get ahead of the lead wave comimg out of iowa....although it is already fairly shticky outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Things popping ahead of the wave moving out of Iowa. But as Gilbertfly said, this isn't looking great for severe wx in LOT. Just what we need... A soaking rain. Insert sarcasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Up to 78/74 here. This summer pattern is a rise, wash, repeat type. I'd expect this ring of fire pattern to continue on and off into August. Edit: Any new reports out of the GTA this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Edit: Any new reports out of the GTA this morning? Things really weren't as bad as they could have been (all thing considered). Most of the floodwaters have drained away (particularly from highways) and people are moving again. Still might be some issues with the subways and GO trains but no serious injuries or deaths reported. The majority power has now been restored and crews are trying to fix some washouts and sinkholes. Most serious incident was 1400 people stranded on this half submerged commuter train. Tracks were completely flooded over. All were rescued by boat without serious issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 not seeing much of a soaker threat either. on the plus side, some rather impressive sustained non-storm winds right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Up to 78/74 here. This summer pattern is a rise, wash, repeat type. I'd expect this ring of fire pattern to continue on and off into August. Edit: Any new reports out of the GTA this morning? Just your typical post-flash flood news. Minor injuries from yesterday, services being restored, people cleaning up. 126mm of rain fell in 2 hours. 121.4mm was the previous record during Hurricane Hazel. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/story/2013/07/09/toronto-rain-flooding-power-ttc.html CP24 has a photo gallery up: http://www.cp24.com/massive-flooding-in-gta-1.1358947 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Man... Hopefully the second line by Rockford produces some thunder and lightning when it comes here. There might be a break in the clouds soon here. But thats not going to help that much though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 A muddied mess....keeping my eye on the convergence/boundary coming out of southern Minnesota...it's been showing some signs of growth, but don't know how worked over things will be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Those flooding pictures say it all! Epic. 0.54" of rain down today so far. Very juicy atmosphere today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Assuming that complex moving into W MN doesn't screw things up (or the junk further south/east organizing), the 6z NAM is looking pretty robust across much of Central and Eastern IA from 18z-00z tomorrow afternoon/evening. I'm liking that Waterloo-Dubuque US 20 corridor for something, perhaps extending northward towards La Crosse later on. That said, the 6z GFS and the SPC WRF seem to be in agreement on a further south solution. Great work on my part... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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