hm8 Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 S. MI/N. IN/NW. OH upgraded to a slight risk on the new Day 1 Sent from my HTCONE using Tapatalk 4 Beta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 12z NAM is farther south, has a significant wind damage threat along the I-80 corridor tomorrow evening. Given the fcst soundings, I would not at all be surprised if initial mode is supercellular, and low-level instability and shear would even support a strong tornado or two early on near the Quad Cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Torrential downpour here in Lisle at I-88 and I-355. Training storm taking shape over the heart of LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Difficult to trust the Nam when it cannot handle this morning's storms correctly. It still could likely be a n Illinois threat vs s Wisconsin, but not because the Nam supports such a scenario but because of any boundaries from tonight's convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 The NAM backed away from the idea of a more prominent area of low pressure over WI and now just has a broad area of troughing along the cold front... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Broad area of PWATs at or above 2 over portions of N IL .... sunshine becoming abundant behind initial convection... Listening to frequent thunder to my near north as skies clear overhead... 2500 Surface Capes nosing into NW IL via SPC meso analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Things are clearing out here. RPM was showing popcorn storms developing by 3pm across N IL and S WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 latest from SPC regarding D2.... DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 PM CDT MON JUL 08 2013 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN PART OF THE CONUS WHERE BETTER DEFINED SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE EVIDENT. THE PRIMARY UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NWRN STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD AND GRADUALLY PHASE ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY EWD OVER NRN MANITOBA...WITH RESULTANT SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AMPLIFYING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. OVER THE SRN STATES...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE SRN PLATEAU AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS MOVE WWD ACROSS NRN MEX AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF FAR SWRN NM AND SRN AZ. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS...REACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY 10/12Z...AND CONTINUING TO A LAKE MI/NRN MO/SERN CO LINE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MAY CONTINUE EWD FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF DAY 1 INTO THE MORNING OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD OVER PARTS THE UPPER MIDWEST/MS VALLEY. THE REMNANTS OF ONE MCS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS MAY SPREAD FROM ND INTO NRN MN...WHILE A STRONGER/LONGER-LIVED MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ACROSS ERN IA INTO PARTS OF SRN WI/NRN IL. ASSOCIATED CLOUD...PRECIPITATION AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO ADD COMPLEXITY TO THE SURFACE PATTERN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND THIS WILL IMPACT DETAILS OF SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F...AND ZONES OF STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING /ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE DESTABILIZATION WITH MAXIMUM MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE MORNING STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS...THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF WI/SERN MN/IA AND NWRN IL. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND SWWD INTO PARTS OF KS WHERE A STRONG CAP WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALTHOUGH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR ATTENDING THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE WARM SECTOR...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR /30-40 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL/ IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE FRONTAL ZONE AND ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS DEVELOPING. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND POSSIBLY SEVERAL TORNADOES /ESPECIALLY EARLY IN ANY SUPERCELL LIFE CYCLE/. WITH TIME THE STORMS MAY COALESCE INTO MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BEFORE THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DECREASES IN INTENSITY AFTER 06Z. looks like a morning line and an afternoon evening line or clusters possible in the Chicago metro region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Cumulus field starting to go up. Temp is moving up fast. 82/72 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 End stage complex tomorrow morning and a miss south/east tomorrow afternoon/evening. meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 8, 2013 Author Share Posted July 8, 2013 End stage complex tomorrow morning and a miss south/east tomorrow afternoon/evening. meh A lot of wiggle room for Chicago with the current 30% area extending all the way to Green Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 All of Chicagoland could get pounded and downtown will miss it all. Happens almost every time, at least this summer. So he's probably correct. A lot of wiggle room for Chicago with the current 30% area extending all the way to Green Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 8, 2013 Author Share Posted July 8, 2013 All of Chicagoland could get pounded and downtown will miss it all. Happens almost every time, at least this summer. So he's probably correct. Well, if that happens, there's nothing you can do. I just think it's too early to be concerned about things staying south though it may just be his usual schtick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 I completely agree with you. Well, if that happens, there's nothing you can do. I just think it's too early to be concerned about things staying south though it may just be his usual schtick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Couple small cells fired along a boundary west of Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 12z NAM is farther south, has a significant wind damage threat along the I-80 corridor tomorrow evening. Given the fcst soundings, I would not at all be surprised if initial mode is supercellular, and low-level instability and shear would even support a strong tornado or two early on near the Quad Cities. This, it took away that prominent lead wave from 00z and essentially goes back to what we were looking at two days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 This, it took away that prominent lead wave from 00z and essentially goes back to what we were looking at two days ago. Yea, and with any leftover OFB from the night before we could be dealing with a sneaky little event baring any major changes. It is July though, and these kind of events are impossible to forecast so we'll have to monitor trends over the next 18 hours or so. As long as overnight convection moves out quickly (big if) and convective temperatures are realized by 21-00z to break the capping inversion, explosive super development should be fairly likely in a corridor from Cedar Rapids to the Quad Cities during this time period. A strong tornado can not be ruled out due to extreme cape a a good amount of 0-1 km shear, especially if there is an OFB laying across the area where surface winds can locally back. Expect then any convection that does fire to consolidate into some kind of bowing mcs that will slide southeast through North Central Illinois. My two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Can see some nice towers going up to the north. 85/73 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 decent convergence developing over northern LOT....CAPE's rebounding nicely....even a decent downdraft CAPE in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Looks like the WI cells could clip my area, especially if it back-builds some more. You know it's humid out when the windows start fogging up with condensation! Yeah I would say CAPE has rebounded since this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Some nice thunderheads just to my north with sprinkes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 waterloo to fort dodge unzipping with stationary soakers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 77 dews at both DKB and FEP, towers tried to look healthy for a time but only big shower soakers so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Things went from dry to soaking in a matter of hours this afternoon, centered around YYZ. GRLevel indicating up to 3.00" of rain in some areas, this happened in less than 2 hours. Heaviest rain fell right over the YYZ guage so should be able to get a good measurement tomorrow. Street flooding abound and widespread power outages, nearly all of Mississauga is reported to be without power. And of course, my backyard gets missed entirely by about 20km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Major flash flooding in the Toronto area. Some areas probably pushing 4" in the last hour. Water rescues have occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Update: Just heard on the news that Pearson airport (YYZ) reported over 90mm of rain in two hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Update: Just heard on the news that Pearson airport (YYZ) reported over 90mm of rain in about 1.5hours. Just saw a tweet radar estimates 168mm/6.61" in the Rexdale area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Impressive photos and reports Toronto members! Sounds like what happened in SE MI a couple weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Highway 427 in Toronto pic.twitter.com/zePOfeb692 Edit: Etobicoke where snowstormcanuck lives pic.twitter.com/5xwRlCPeyA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Damn @ that highway pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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