Severe Weather Text Product Game

[andyhb]

1/29/13.

[metalicwx366]

Yep that was it.

[andyhb]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0657 AM CST ______________

VALID ________ - _________

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN GULF CST REGION

INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...

CLOSED LOW NOW OVER THE MO OZARKS SHOULD CONTINUE ACCELERATING NE

THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING LWR MI BY EVENING AND WRN QUEBEC BY

12Z MONDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO LARGER

SCALE TROUGH THAT WILL AMPLIFY SE INTO THE MS VLY. AS THIS

OCCURS...SW TO WSWLY MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE

CNTRL/ERN GULF CST REGION...WITH 500 MB SPEEDS INCREASING TO AOA 70

KTS IN AL/GA.

AT THE SFC...LOW NOW OVER MO SHOULD LIFT NE INTO MI BY EVENING AS

SHALLOW COLD FRONT OVER MO/KS/OK CONTINUES E/SE ACROSS IL/AR AND TX.

FARTHER E...DEEPER WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW

WILL PROGRESS E ACROSS THE TN VLY...REACHING ERN TN/WRN GA AND THE

WRN FL PANHANDLE EARLY TONIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE E TO THE

MID/S ATLANTIC CSTL PLN BY 12Z MONDAY AS WARM FRONT NOW DEVELOPING

ALONG THE CAROLINA CST LIFTS RAPIDLY N INTO NJ/SRN NEW ENGLAND.

...AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE/TN VLY...

REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT BROKEN SQLN WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS EXPECTED

TO CONTINUE E INTO AL...GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE LATER TODAY...AHEAD

OF DEEP WIND-SHIFT/COLD FRONT TRAILING S FROM MID MS VLY LOW.

CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NERN GULF...AND CONFIGURATION OF

EXISTING STORMS UPSTREAM OVER LA/MS...SUGGEST THAT SFC DEWPOINTS

SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AT LEAST AS FAR N AS THE SEM/BHM

AREA BY EARLY AFTN. COUPLED WITH MODEST HEATING...THIS SHOULD YIELD

SBCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG...DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.

AS DEEP WIND FIELD STRENGTHENS ON PERIPHERY OF AMPLIFYING UPR

TROUGH...AND DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL LINEAR FORCING REMAINS RATHER

MODEST...SETUP SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED

SUPERCELLS. GIVEN INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW AND LONG/HOOKED

HODOGRAPHS /0-1 KM SRH AOA 350 M2 PER S2/... A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR

A FEW STRONG TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND/HAIL. THE

GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST THIS AFTN OVER SRN/CNTRL AL AND

THE FL PANHANDLE...WHERE THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED

ALONG AXIS OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE INFLOW. THE SVR THREAT LIKELY WILL

SPREAD INTO GA /ESPECIALLY SRN AND WRN SECTIONS/ AND PERHAPS WRN SC

LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE ABOVE STORMS...CONFLUENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND

HEATING BENEATH FRINGE OF AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH MAY YIELD A FEW LATE

AFTN STORMS WITH HAIL OVER NRN AL/E TN.

...ERN CAROLINAS/SE VA...

SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPR 50S AND 60S TONIGHT AND EARLY

MONDAY FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS NWD INTO MD/DE AS PREVIOUSLY-

MENTIONED WARM FRONT SWEEPS N AHEAD OF TN VLY COLD FRONT.

COMBINATION OF FRONTAL/PRE-FRONTAL UPLIFT ALONG COLD FRONT...AND

INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO

THE WEST...COULD LEAD TO SCTD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG PRE-FRONTAL

CONFLUENCE BANDS AND/OR INTENSIFICATION OF FRONTAL CONVECTION

SPREADING E FROM THE APPALACHIANS. GIVEN EXPECTED 50 KT DEEP SWLY

SHEAR...AND 60 KT SSWLY LLJ...RESULTING HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT

SUPERCELLS IF SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS DO INDEED FORM. SUCH ACTIVITY

COULD POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MARGINALLY

SVR HAIL AND TORNADOES...DESPITE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY.

...MID MS VLY...

AREA OF ENHANCED ASCENT/MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH

EJECTING UPR LOW WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF IL/IND AND SRN LWR MI THIS

AFTN/EARLY TONIGHT. COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODEST SFC

HEATING IN THE SYSTEM'S DRY SLOT...SETUP MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT

OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION/POSSIBLE STORMS ALONG AFOREMENTIONED COLD

FRONT IN IL. ATTM...HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MOST OF THE

ACTIVITY WILL SUFFICIENTLY DEEPEN TO POSE A THREAT FOR SUSTAINED

STORMS AND/OR HAIL.

..CORFIDI.. __________

[tornadotony]

2/17/08

[andyhb]

Yes.

[tornadotony]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0747 AM CDT ### ### ## ####

VALID ##1300Z - ##1200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW ERI 10 WNW YNG 30 SE UNI 20 WSW LEX 10 E EVV 25 NW SLO 40 W MLI 45 NE ALO 30 W GRB 10 N MBL 55 NNE MTC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ROC 15 S PSB 40 W SHD 35 ESE TRI 10 ESE CHA 20 NNW MKL 20 NNW POF 15 SSE SZL 40 SW FNB 30 NE MCK 45 ESE CYS 15 E LAR 25 NNW CPR 35 SE SHR 30 SE 4BQ 25 S PHP 35 W YKN SPW 40 WNW EAU 75 N IWD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N GLS 35 SW LFK 25 S TYR 40 SE PRX 45 NE TXK 15 N PBF 15 SSW UNO 30 NNW CNU 15 WSW SLN 50 WNW GLD 25 WSW LIC 25 E LVS ROW 25 WNW INK 15 SSW P07 ...CONT... 10 SW IPL IGM 30 SSE SGU 10 NNE MLF 35 NNW PIH 25 S 27U 30 E BKE 60 SSW RDM 30 SSE EUG 35 WNW BLI ...CONT... 65 NNW GGW 35 N PIR 25 NE MHE 25 NNW OTG 25 NE RWF 25 ESE BRD 35 NW HIB 40 WNW INL ...CONT... 60 W 3B1 25 NE PSM.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER EXTREME ERN IA...SRN WI...SRN LOWER MI...MUCH OF IL...IND AND OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER OH/TN VLYS INTO THE CNTRL-NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

VIGOROUS MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NRN MN ATTM IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY SEWD...REACHING THE UPPER OH VLY TO MID MS VLY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWER...AND EXTEND NWWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.

UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED VCNTY CO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH INTO THE PAC NW. INVERTED TROUGH/CLOSED LOW NEAR THE TX BIG BEND WILL MOVE WWD INTO CHIHUAHUA...SONORA AND SRN AZ BY TONIGHT.

...UPPER MS VLY SEWD TO THE OH/TN VLYS...

RATHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION WITH PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND GIANT HAIL ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA.

AS H5 HEIGHT FALLS OF 60-90 METERS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE SEWD... TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THIS MORNING. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS 70-75F SURFACE DEW POINTS COINCIDE WITH ERN EDGE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. THUS... TSTMS ARE APT TO RAPIDLY ORGANIZE AND BECOME SEVERE. WHILE HODOGRAPHS ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF BOW ECHOS AS THE FLOW BECOMES NWLY THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. INITIAL TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES...PRIMARILY FROM ERN IA/SRN WI INTO CNTRL/ NRN IL. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG SWRN PARTS OF THE MDT RISK WHERE LOW LEVEL SRH WILL BE HIGHER AND SMALLER-SCALE ROTATING COMMA HEADS.

ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONGEAL QUICKLY INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE EXPECTED IN A SWATH FROM SRN WI...ERN IA ESEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OH VLY OVERNIGHT. 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA SHOW A LARGE DEGREE OF DRY AIR IN THE CONVECTIVE GENERATING LAYER AND THIS MAY AUGMENT WIND PRODUCTION. LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS SHOULD APPROACH THE UPPER OH VLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FARTHER SW...12Z OMAHA SOUNDING EXHIBITED A VERY WARM LAYER H85-H7 WITH H7 TEMPERATURE OF 14C. THIS CAP/WARM LAYER MAY INHIBIT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION FROM FORMING ALONG THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS MO AND WRN IA. BUT...GIVEN A STORM...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO SWRN SD AND SWRN NEB...

A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE WAS NOTED ON VAPOR IMAGERY VCNTY NRN/CNTRL UT AND IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NEWD THEN EWD THROUGH WY AND INTO NEB BY LATE TONIGHT. TSTMS ARE APT TO INCREASE ON THE WY/MT HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S DEW POINTS TODAY BENEATH 8.5 C/KM MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES... CONTRIBUTING TO 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES FROM NEB PNHDL/ERN WY/SWRN SD AND NWWD TO PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MT. REGION WILL LIE ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER NWLY FLOW AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS TO GIVE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LLJ DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EVENING MAY SUSTAIN ONE OR MORE TSTM CLUSTERS INTO SRN SD OR NEB OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT MAY TREND TOWARD ISOLD LARGE HAILSTONES GIVEN MORE ELEVATED NATURE TO THE STORMS. ...DESERT SW... DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE MAGNITUDE OF POSSIBLE GULF SURGE THIS MORNING...THOUGH NAME INSTRUMENT PLATFORMS IN/NEAR THE GULF OF CA DO SHOW AN INCREASE IN PWAT AND SURFACE PRESSURE SINCE 06Z. ANY SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD INTO SRN AZ INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... MOISTENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EARLY MORNING VSBL IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE RAPIDLY TODAY AND INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TX BIG BEND INVERTED TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL ENCOURAGE TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TSTMS MAY CLUSTER AND PROPAGATE INTO THE VLYS OF SCNTRL AZ THIS EVENING. GIVEN INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURES...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MIDLEVEL ELY FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE AOB 20 KTS...BUT IF HIGHER SPEEDS EXIST ON N SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW LATER TODAY...POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER COVERAGE WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR.

..RACY/GUYER.. ##/##/####

[Thunder Road]

This one took some digging... 7/13/04?

[tornadotony]

Yep. Anyone who hasn't seen the ILX page on that event needs to.

[Thunder Road]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER ___

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

305 PM CDT ___ ___ __ ____

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO

PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS

SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO

OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE

PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS ______ AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH

NORTHWEST OF GARDEN CITY KANSAS TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DALHART

TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED

WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...WITH THE AIR MASS NOW VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AOA

2500 J/KG...ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND VEERING SHEAR

PROFILES...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE

WATCH. PARAMETERS SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL

THREAT GIVEN THE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 27015.

...HALES

[andyhb]

5/31/10 (Campo).

[Thunder Road]

5/31/10 (Campo).

 

Yup. 

 

And along with it, the MD with the most stuff that I've ever seen on a single graphic.

 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2010/md0756.html

[andyhb]

Yup. 

 

And along with it, the MD with the most stuff that I've ever seen on a single graphic.

 

Lol, that is great.

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ____   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0910 PM CDT ______________      AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY...MIDDLE/WRN TN      CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH ___...___...___...      VALID ________ - ________      ...MULTIPLE DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS THE   REGION...      00Z SOUNDING FROM LZK SUGGESTS HIGH QUALITY LAPSE RATE/INSTABILITY   ENVIRONMENT IS SPREADING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WHERE   MULTIPLE DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS PERSIST. SEVERAL OF THESE   STORMS ARE LONG-LIVED AND HAVE YET TO EXHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT   WEAKENING.  OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...DIAGNOSTIC TRENDS ARE SHOWING   RAPID RECOVERY INTO MIDDLE TN WHERE SIG TOR VALUES ARE NOW   APPROACHING 8. TORNADIC THREAT REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THIS REGION FOR   THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.      ..DARROW.. __________

[Stebo]

Yep. Anyone who hasn't seen the ILX page on that event needs to.

Yes their summation of the event is excellant.

[metalicwx366]

4/2/06??

[andyhb]

Yes.

[metalicwx366]

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SERN KS...MO...AR...ERN OK AND NERN TX. THE MDT RISK AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE DAL 40 NNW PRX CNU 15 ENE TOP 50 SSE P35 55 S UIN 10 SSW CGI 10 NNE MEM 40 ESE ELD 30 NW SHV 40 NNW TYR 35 ENE DAL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE CHS 15 WSW LUL 25 NNW POE 15 SSW LFK 25 SSE CLL 35 SW AUS 30 SSE BWD 35 WNW MLC 40 W TUL 20 WNW HUT 30 NE RSL 35 SW LWD 35 SSE IND 15 SE CMH 25 SSE JHW 20 W SYR 20 SSE BGM 15 WSW SSU 15 SW ROA 35 NE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BVE 30 W MSY 35 NE LCH 30 NNW HOU 45 N NIR 10 S SAT 15 NE JCT 40 WNW MWL 25 SE FSI 25 WNW OKC 20 W END 40 NNE AMA 35 NNW TCC 30 N SAF 30 WSW FMN 35 N 4BL 30 ENE CNY GJT 35 S CAG 40 SSW LAR 30 NNE SNY 15 NW BBW 25 SSW SUX 45 SSW FOD 15 E ALO 15 SSW MSN 35 ESE MKE 15 SW JXN 15 SSE DTW ...CONT... 25 NE PBG 30 SSE AUG ...CONT... MLB 50 WNW PBI 45 ENE FMY 35 E SRQ 55 NNE PIE 25 NW GNV 35 SSE VLD 25 W TLH 10 W PFN.

...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SWRN CO/WRN NM IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED 60-70KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS OK INTO MO AND SRN IL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET NOSES EWD ACROSS TX INTO OK DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW INVOF WRN OK AT 12Z WILL RAPIDLY MIGRATE NEWD ACROSS NERN KS AND INTO W-CNTRL MO BY xxxxx AND THEN INTO CNTRL IL BY xxxxxx . QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN OK LOW NEWD INTO WRN NY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY AS WAA REGIME INCREASES AHEAD OF DEVELOPING CYCLONE. ATTENDANT DRYLINE WILL BEGIN TO MIX EWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LOW PLAINS BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...ERN END OF BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS NY/NEW ENGLAND BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING.

...ERN KS/ERN OK/MO/AR... ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BEGIN TO SURGE NWD INTO ERN KS AND MO THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. THIS RICH MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-8 C/KM/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FROM SRN MO SWD THROUGH ERN OK/AR WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 3000-5000 J/KG. FARTHER N ACROSS CNTRL MO MLCAPES SHOULD INCREASE TO 1500 TO 2500 J/KG.

TSTMS MAY INITIATE RATHER EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS CNTRL KS ALONG AND BEHIND SURFACE COLD FRONT AS FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY THEN OCCUR SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM SERN KS/SWRN MO SWD INTO ERN OK. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND 50-55KTS OF 0-6KM AGL SHEAR... SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. THE GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS NERN OK/NWRN AR INTO SWRN/CNTRL MO WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS IMMEDIATELY E AND NE OF SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF 150-300 M2/S2. A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME.

FARTHER S ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER SERN OK INTO N/NERN TX... TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND WEAK FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO ONE OR TWO MCS/S LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND MOVE EWD INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THE GREATEST THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AT THIS TIME WILL BE FROM ERN MO INTO IL AHEAD OF 60-70KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

[andyhb]

5/6/03.

[Thunder Road]

I thought 5/6/03 was a good guess, but I guess not.  I'll have to do some poking around later.

[metalicwx366]

Yeah that was it. My bad.

[Thunder Road]

SPC AC ______

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID __1630Z - __1200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PROTIONS OF OH...PA...NY...

WV...KY AND TN TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW CSV 40 SSW CKV 20

N HOP 35 SSW SDF 35 ENE LUK 15 SSW MFD 20 SW CLE 15 WSW ERI 20 NNE

JHW 45 SE BUF 20 SSE ELM 25 ESE IPT HGR 25 E EKN BKW 45 SW BLF 30

NE TYS 50 WSW CSV.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM

20 NNE ECG 20 NNW SOP 45 E RMG 30 SW CBM 35 NNW HEZ 40 S ELD

20 SSW PBF 35 NNE MEM 35 S PAH 10 SSW OWB 45 NNE SDF 20 ESE DAY

35 W CLE ...CONT... 30 WNW SYR 25 ENE BDR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW ART

10 SSE PSM ...CONT... 20 S CHS AUO 20 WSW LUL 30 E POE 30 S CLL

30 S AUS 45 W TPL 25 NNW ACT 30 N TYR 25 WSW HOT 55 SW JBR

35 N DYR 35 WSW OWB 30 NW SDF 25 WNW LUK 45 NNW MFD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE SUX 15 SSW FOD

25 SW LWD 10 WNW TOP 15 S EAR 35 SSE IML 10 WSW AKO 40 SSW 4FC

55 NW GJT 40 E SLC 45 ESE EKO 20 SSW TWF 40 NW JAC 55 S GCC

35 SSE RAP 35 N BUB 35 NE SUX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S OTH 55 NNW LMT

30 NNW RNO 35 E SCK 45 S UKI.

...SYNOPSIS...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD FROM THE GREAT

LAKES EASTWARD INTO NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT

WILL PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MID/ATLANTIC STATES AS STRONG

PRESSURE RISES SWEEP EASTWARD...BUT FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWER SEWD

THROUGH THE TN/MID MS VALLEY AS UPPER SUPPORT PASSES WELL NORTH OF

THE AREA.

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE EXPECTED THIS

AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO/TN

VALLEYS...

...OH AND TN VALLEYS AND PA...

MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT

A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OH AND

TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE STRONGER

FROM OH EWD INTO PA AND 70-80 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WOULD SUPPORT MORE

WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND SOME GUSTS GREATER THAN 80 MPH. STORMS

ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INITIALLY AS DISCRETE STORMS FROM OH SWWD

INTO KY. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50-60 KT AND 0-1 KM SRH HELICITY

NEAR 300 M2/S2 WOULD ALSO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.

...NY SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...

CLOUDS HAVE HELD DOWN TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS MORNING...BUT

RAPID CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW IS

FORECAST TO TRACK THROUGH SRN NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.

EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WITH A

THREAT OF MAINLY WIND DAMAGE.

...SERN AR EWD INTO NRN AL...

AIR MASS WILL BE STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OVER 3000 J/KG. 30

KT DEEP LAYERED SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE...BUT FORCING

WILL BE WEAK AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SLIGHTLY.

HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING

WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

..IMY..

[metalicwx366]

Somewhere around 4/29/02 with the rare La Plata tornado.

[Thunder Road]

Somewhere around 4/29/02 with the rare La Plata tornado.

 

Meh, close enough.  4/28 actually, but I think the thread has finally run out of steam.

[RCNYILWX]

BBC

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 4 Beta