Severe Weather Text Product Game

[metalicwx366]

11/27/05

[andyhb]

Nope to those.

[thewxmann]

Wild guess -- 01/01/11?

[andyhb]

Wild guess -- 01/01/11?

 

Nope.

 

It is an older event.

[Thunder Road]

I had to do a bit of research for this one since I don't remember many old events except for the big May outbreaks.

 

4/6/05?

[metalicwx366]

I had to do a bit of research for this one since I don't remember many old events except for the big May outbreaks.

 

4/6/05?

CST

[Thunder Road]

CST

I know.  Back then wasn't the time change in early April?

 

I'll admit I'm perplexed by the combination of 45-knot storm motions, 50 kft tops, and CST.

[andyhb]

Nope, not 4/6/05.

[thewxmann]

Ah, 4/6/05 is a really good guess. 11/24/01?

[andyhb]

Ah, 4/6/05 is a really good guess. 11/24/01?

 

We have a winner.

 

I would've said there was a violent tornado in MS in the early morning but that probably would've gave it away. This was actually Alabama's largest single day outbreak on record until 4/27/11 of course.

[thewxmann]

Man, that was a tough one. Went with the only "old" date I knew with tornadoes in MS.

 

Another fairly old one:

 

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1046 AM CDT ___________

VALID __1630Z - __1200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE
OLU 10 ESE OMA 20 NW LWD 40 SW IRK 20 ENE SZL 10 N JLN 40 ENE ABI 30
NNW ABI 75 NW ABI P28 HLC EAR 25 ENE OLU.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S
MRF 25 E MAF 40 WSW CSM 25 W P28 30 W HLC MCK 25 ESE MHN 15 SE MHE
30 NW MKT 35 WSW DLH RHI MKE 10 SE SBN 30 NE DAY 15 S CMH UNI 30 SE
5I3 40 NNE TYS 40 SE BWG 30 SW CGI HRO FSM 10 ENE DUA FTW 20 SSE
DRT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 30
SW JAX 35 NNW AYS 15 SW AHN 10 WSW AND 30 N CAE 15 SW CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW GGW 30 WNW ISN
20 NNE DVL RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ERI 30 SE MGW
25 NNE CLT 30 NNE FLO 20 S ILM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S CRP LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW MRF 30 NNW CDS
30 N GAG GCK 40 N LAA 15 NE MTJ 20 W PUC 10 SE SLC 25 NNW EVW 30 NNW
RWL 30 WNW DGW 45 N CPR 40 W 3HT 55 NNE MSO 60 NW FCA.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MIDWEST THRU OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN GA AND SC...

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES THIS
FORECAST PERIOD COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER
SRN MANITOBA THRU WRN MN INTO ERN NEB THEN WWD INTO CENTRAL CO.
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER WRN KS WHERE COLD FRONT INTERSECTS DRY
LINE. DRY LINE THEN TRAILS SSWWD ACROSS ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN
TX.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES ESEWD FROM NRN IA ACROSS
OH VALLEY AND THEN SEWD AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ALONG SC/NC
BORDER.

VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM HAVE SPREAD ACROSS PLAINS
AND COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUED STRONG FLUX OF GULF MOISTURE HAVE PUT
IN PLACE AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF PLAINS TO E
OF DRY LINE AND SE OF COLD FRONT.

ADDITIONALLY A MDT TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS COVERS AREA ALONG AND S
OF FRONTAL BAND ACROSS OH VALLEY INTO SERN STATES.

...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...
EXAMINING 12Z RAOBS AND MODEL RUNS THE AIR MASS BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS E AND SE OF DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT.
MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUPPORT EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS BY
MID AFTERNOON. WITH THE MID LEVEL COOLING AND UPWARD MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS THE CAP WILL
WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SWRN
TX NWD THRU CENTRAL PLAINS.

HAIL MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH ANY
SUPERCELL OVER THE MDT RISK AREA. TORNADIC POTENTIAL ATTM SEEMS
HIGHEST IN THE AREA OF BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND WEAKEST CAP OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PLAINS E OF DRY LN AND NEAR COLD FRONT. GIVEN
THE EXTREME AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE VIOLENT TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHER DOWN DRYLINE THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WINDS. HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACH OF MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX SRN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN NM ATTM...SHEAR
COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED
RELATIVELY HIGH BASES.

...MID WEST INCLUDING OH VALLEY...
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA. ONGOING ACTIVITY AND WEAKER LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO CONCENTRATE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG AND A RELATIVELY WEAK CAP...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WHERE STORMS CAN FOCUS EITHER ON
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR VICINITY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE.

...CAROLINAS...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SWD INTO SC WILL BE NRN LIMIT OF
ANY THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. S OF FRONT SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE
ALONG BOTH THE SEA BREEZE AND COLD FRONTS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE MLCAPES TO NEAR 3000
J/KG.

..HALES/BANACOS.. __________

[greg ralls]

Probably not this old, but why not.  5/3/1999?

[metalicwx366]

4/26/05

[thewxmann]

No to both of the above.

[brettjrob]

Hmm. Has to be older than 2006, since I don't recall ever seeing Banacos during my chasing days. Wild guess is 5/22/04.

[thewxmann]

Nope, not 5/22/04.

[andyhb]

6/12/04.

[Thunder Road]

6/12/04.

 

Must be.  The surface map matches perfectly with the discussion.

 

[andyhb]

This was the Mulvane day.

[tornadotony]

We have a winner. I would've said there was a violent tornado in MS in the early morning but that probably would've gave it away. This was actually Alabama's largest single day outbreak on record until 4/27/11 of course.

Close. Try 4/15/11 (45 tornadoes), then 4/27/11 (62 tornadoes).

[thewxmann]

6/12/04.

 

Yep that's it. Mulvane day.

[andyhb]

Close. Try 4/15/11 (45 tornadoes), then 4/27/11 (62 tornadoes).

 

Erm...yeah. I always forget about 4/15 and how raked AL got in that event.

[andyhb]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ____

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1148 AM CST _______________

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS...CNTRL AND SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE THROUGH

NRN AND CNTRL GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH ___...___...

VALID ________ - _________

CORRECTED TO CHANGE REFERENCE TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES TO

TORNADO WATCHES

THREAT FOR LONG TRACK STRONG TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AND

WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM SERN MS THROUGH SRN AND

CNTRL AL...THE FL PANHANDLE AND EVENTUALLY INTO CNTRL AND NRN GA.

NUMEROUS STORMS INCLUDING DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE DEVELOPING

WITHIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN WEAKLY

CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST REGION. STRONGEST

STORMS ARE CURRENTLY FROM SERN MS...SRN AND CNTRL AL INTO THE FL

PANHANDLE AND ARE MOVING NE. THE STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET IS

ADVECTING MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NWD THROUGH THE WARM

SECTOR...AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NWD DESTABILIZATION THIS

AFTERNOON DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 500

TO 1000 J/KG EXISTS ACROSS PARTS MS INTO AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE.

LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN

EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 PERSISTS OVER A LARGE AREA...AND THIS WILL

MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS NEXT

SEVERAL HOURS.

STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NRN GA CURRENTLY APPEAR ELEVATED. THE STRONG

LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NWD DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME AS FAR N

AS NRN GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN

INCREASING TORNADO THREAT AS STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED.

..DIAL.. _____________

[Thunder Road]

3/1/07?

[andyhb]

Yup, I figured that would be a pretty fast one.

[Thunder Road]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER ___

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1130 AM CDT ___ ___ __ ____

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

SOUTHEAST KANSAS

SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS _______ MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1130 AM UNTIL

700 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF

BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF HARRISON ARKANSAS.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW ___...

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS ELEVATED STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD SOME OF THE

WATCH AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL

WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING LARGE SCALE PATTERN. MOST

GUIDANCE SUPPORT RAPID NEAR-SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION IN THE

WAKE OF THIS INITIAL ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION AND ADDITIONAL

STORMS ARE ILKLEY TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT BY

MID-LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR

UPDRAFT ROTATION AND HAIL PRODUCTION...WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER

COINCIDENT WITH THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

FURTHERMORE...STRONG LOW LEVEL SRH NEAR THE LOW AND ALONG THE WARM

FRONT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL AND

PERSISTENT STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY LATER

THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.

...CARBIN

[thewxmann]

5/10/08? Looks right geographically, and I remember the Picher-Neosho watch being issued by Carbin for some reason (maybe I'm wrong though). Timing seems to be a bit early though... whatever, but it WAS an early watch. Ongoing elevated convection seems right too.

[andyhb]

5/10/08? Looks right geographically, and I remember the Picher-Neosho watch being issued by Carbin for some reason (maybe I'm wrong though). Timing seems to be a bit early though... whatever, but it WAS an early watch. Ongoing elevated convection seems right too.

 

Mean storm motion vector also seems right as well.

[Thunder Road]

5/10/08? Looks right geographically, and I remember the Picher-Neosho watch being issued by Carbin for some reason (maybe I'm wrong though). Timing seems to be a bit early though... whatever, but it WAS an early watch. Ongoing elevated convection seems right too.

 

Yup.  One of the first events I remember closely following.  Such an odd combination of emotions to see Picher get hit, realize that it's a ghost town because of Tar Creek and hope no one was hurt, but then realize that there were still some people living there and start to think "how can life get any worse for these people."

[Thunder Road]

Anyone alive out there?

 

Try this one...I guess...

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 AM CDT ___ ___ __ ____
   
   VALID __1630Z - __1200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
   EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO NORTHWEST KANSAS AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
   NEBRASKA INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK AREA
   FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI
   RIVER VALLEY...
   
   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   LATE MORNING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS AT LEAST THREE LOW CENTERS ACROSS
   THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN LEE/SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGHING
   FROM WRN SD TO ERN CO. OUTFLOW SURGE IN THE WAKE OF ERN NEB/WRN IA
   MCS WAS EVIDENT IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EXTENDS ACROSS
   NWRN KS TO SERN CO. LOW CLOUDS ARE PERSISTING TO THE NORTH OF THIS
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM NERN CO ACROSS MUCH OF SRN NEB ATTM. EXPECT
   THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WIND SHIFT AND WEAK COLD POOL TO GRADUALLY
   DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL/DIABATIC PROCESSES AND
   SYNOPTIC FORCING INCREASE IN DOMINANCE.
   
   DIURNAL HEATING OF VERY MOIST AND CAPPED WARM SECTOR AIRMASS /SFC
   DEWPOINTS 65-70F/ WILL CONTRIBUTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO
   LOCALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 3000 J PER KG/ LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON FROM WRN KS INTO SRN NEB. MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT HEIGHT
   FALLS WITH APPROACH OF WRN U.S. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID LEE-SIDE
   CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS ERN CO. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RESPONDS TO THIS
   DEVELOPMENT...AND RECOVERS IN THE WAKE OF DECAYING OUTFLOW SURGE
   ACROSS NERN CO...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
   UPSLOPE FLOW FROM NERN CO ACROSS SERN WY.
   
   SYNOPTIC LIFT AND WEAKER INHIBITION ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE STRONG
   TO ISOLD SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN CO AND
   ERN WY BY 20-21Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH 40-50 KT
   SW MID LVL FLOW AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT
   PERSISTENCE AND HAIL PRODUCTION. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO
   SUPERCELLS THAT WILL THEN MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO INCREASINGLY
   STRONG/MOIST LOW LVL ELY FLOW TO THE N OF CONSOLIDATING LEE-SIDE SFC
   LOW.
     
   THROUGH THE EVENING....THE CONTINUATION OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR
   UPWARD MOTION AND SFC INTENSIFICATION OF LOW...DRYLINE AND WARM
   FRONT...SHOULD RESULT IN ROBUST STORM DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN
   STORM COVERAGE FROM NERN CO INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NEB/KS THROUGH
   THE EVENING. STRENGTH OF CAPPING INVERSION/EML WITH SWD EXTENT
   SUGGESTS EITHER A SHARP CUT-OFF TO SEVERE THREAT...OR MORE
   ISOLD/DISCRETE STORMS SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE.
   
   MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL GIVEN
   MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.
   ENHANCED LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL EXIST NEAR AND NORTH OF
   THE SURFACE LOW...AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ALONG/NEAR
   THE NEB/KS BORDER. THIS IS AN AREA WHERE TORNADOES...POSSIBLY
   STRONG...APPEAR LIKELY INTO THE LATE EVENING.
   
   UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT WITH AN
   MCS OR TWO EVOLVING AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...SUSTAINED
   BY 40-50KT LLJ. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY FEEDING THIS ACTIVITY TO
   THE NORTH OF THE CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR HAIL
   AND WIND DAMAGE EWD TO PARTS OF MN AND IA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
   
   ..CARBIN/ROGERS..