andyhb Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Nope to either 5/24/11 or 5/10/08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 16, 2013 Author Share Posted July 16, 2013 4/24/10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Not 4/24/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 11/29/10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 4/25/11? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 I've got two other guesses but the early timing of the watch and the CDT throws me off each time. Pretty big hail sizes too which goes along with CDT implying this was not a wintertime or early spring or fall event. OK, going to go out on a limb, even though I really do not remember a watch being issued so early -- 04/26/11? Something about the multiple bands of supercells feels so familiar to me... P.S. I do have one more guess in me if this is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Nope to any of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 16, 2013 Author Share Posted July 16, 2013 I never wrote a rule for what happens when everyone is out of guesses... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Hints perhaps after 24 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 16, 2013 Author Share Posted July 16, 2013 Hints perhaps after 24 hours? I googled the Discussion after my guess so I know what it is, haha. Hopefully Andy will think of something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Hmm, well it was a somewhat forgotten day of a very active year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Hmm, well it was a somewhat forgotten day of a very active year. If it's 5/25/11, you should give it to MetallicWx because I'm pretty sure that's what he meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 If it's 5/25/11, you should give it to MetallicWx because I'm pretty sure that's what he meant. Yeah, that's it. I didn't give it to 5/24 considering the location was not in the Plains (and I can't tell what people mean lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 I knew it was one of those dates. One of them was a high risk I believe. Correct me if I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK Xxxxx CDT xxx xxx x xxxx VALID xxxxxx - xxxxxxxx ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL SD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... THE PRIMARY BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES...TO THE N OF AN ELONGATED MIDLEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SWRN DESERTS TO SERN U.S. WITHIN THIS SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW REGIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC WILL PROGRESS ENEWD INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH THIS SYSTEM ATTENDED BY A BELT OF 50-60 KT FLOW AT 500 MB FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. ELSEWHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN SD WILL PROGRESS ESEWD TOWARD THE MIDWEST WHILE AN MCV OVER S-CNTRL NEB MOVES THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY INTO OH VALLEY. IN THE LOWER LATITUDES...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WWD ACROSS SRN TX. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CNTRL QUEBEC INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY WHILE SETTLING MORE SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM OH WNWWD THROUGH IA/NEB TO LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER SOUTH...A THERMAL LOW WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON OVER WRN KS WITH A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ...NRN PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC COAST... LATEST MESOSCALE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IN STORM EVOLUTION INVOF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS OF 12Z...RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE ELEVATED TSTMS ONGOING FROM WRN SD ESEWD THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF IL/IND. DCVA ATTENDANT TO ABOVE-MENTIONED NRN HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIKELY AIDING WRN SD STORMS WHILE LOW-LEVEL WAA APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FORCING REMAINDER OF ACTIVITY FROM THE MID MO VALLEY EWD. 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ENVIRONMENT ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS CHARACTERIZED BY LOWEST 100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF AROUND 17 G/KG AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 9 C/KM WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 4000-5000+ J/KG. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SPECIFIC DETAILS REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAIN UNCLEAR...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT MULTIPLE STORM CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP AND GROW UPSCALE INTO FORWARD-PROPAGATING SYSTEMS /POSSIBLE BOW ECHOES/ WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SPREADING SEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 6/29/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 16, 2013 Author Share Posted July 16, 2013 ^ Gotta be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 I knew it was one of those dates. One of them was a high risk I believe. Correct me if I am wrong. Both 5/24 and 5/25 were High. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Both 5/24 and 5/25 were High.Thanks for the correction. Yep you guys got it, 6/29/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Thanks for the correction. Yep you guys got it, 6/29/12. You were. I guess I'll do mine lol. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION _____ NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CDT ________________ AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN/ERN IL INTO INDIANA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID ________ - ________ TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS NEXT SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE TURNS THROUGH THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CYCLONE...ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE AIDING INITIATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AND...STRENGTHENING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS ILLINOIS/ INDIANA. MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 90+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB POLAR JET...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH 40 TO 50 KT 850 FLOW...LIKELY TO BACK FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THIS INCLUDES THE RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES. STORM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS MOST PROBABLE FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH THE INDIANAPOLIS IND AREA DURING THE 18/21Z- 19/00Z TIME FRAME. BUT...ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP NORTHWARD...EITHER SIDE OF THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER AREA...INTO THE GREATER CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA. ..KERR.. __________ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 17, 2013 Author Share Posted July 17, 2013 10/18/07? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 17, 2013 Author Share Posted July 17, 2013 Correct. I cheated though...sorta. You left the day of the week in the MD. So if mob1 wants to do one, since he never got a chance, he can go ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 I cheated though...sorta. You left the day of the week in the MD. So if mob1 wants to do one, since he never got a chance, he can go ahead.I'm on my phone now and it's kind off a pain to do it, someone else please post one... Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 I cheated though...sorta. You left the day of the week in the MD. So if mob1 wants to do one, since he never got a chance, he can go ahead. Ah damn, didn't see that in there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 I'm on my phone now and it's kind off a pain to do it, someone else please post one... Thanks Ok DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK xxx xx CDT xxx xxx xx xxxx VALID xxxxxx-xxxxxx ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN IL INTO NRN IND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN LA INTO THE UPPER TX COAST... ...IL/IND... PROGRESSIVE DERECHO-PRODUCING MCS APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING OVER NWRN IL AS OF 00Z WITH SYSTEM SITUATED ALONG A WNW-ENE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH EXTENDS INTO NRN IND. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...ENVIRONMENT IS STRONGLY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES 4000-6000 J/KG. AREA PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE 35-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN MCS ESEWD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE APEX OF THE EVOLVING BOW ECHO ACROSS N-CNTRL/NERN IL INTO NRN IND. MCS MAY CONTINUE SEWD INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER LATE TONIGHT OVER OH AS STRENGTHENING...NOCTURNAL LLJ MAINTAINS AN INFLOW OF THE STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO SYSTEM FROM THE W/SW. ...CNTRL PLAINS... SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ALONG/S OF WRN EXTENSION OF LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY OVER ERN CO WHERE MLCAPES ARE AROUND 500-1500 J/KG. TSTMS MAY TEND TO ORGANIZE A COLD POOL THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY PROPAGATING EWD INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ALONG IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY OVER SRN NEB/NRN KS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ...SERN TX AND SRN LA... TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE - SEE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NHC. AS CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. ..MEAD/GUYER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 8/4/08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 8/4/08. Yep that's it. Craziest storm I have ever been in. Power was out the entire night and I was scared something was gonna come crashing into the house during the storm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER ___ STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 521 AM CST _______________ THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHWEST ALABAMA EXTREME NORTHEAST LOUISIANA MISSISSIPPI EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 530 AM UNTIL 1100 AM CST. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI TO 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF MUSCLE SHOALS ALABAMA. REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO WATCH NUMBER ___. WATCH NUMBER ___ WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 530 AM CST. CONTINUE...WW ___... DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FROM NERN LA INTO NWRN MS IS MOVING EWD...WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CONTINUING IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE. VAD AND WIND PROFILER DATA SHOW VERY STRONG WINDS THAT VEER WITH HEIGHT...WITH 50-60 KT FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL. THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 11/29/2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.