Severe Weather Text Product Game

[thewxmann]

This is really tough... the only major hint is the day of the week, which only eliminates a couple of days. I have two guesses, but for now I'm going to guess 06/04/05.

[mob1]

4/14/12?

(if it is, give it to the other guy, since I bet he was thinking of the 14th.)

Yeah, 4/13 was on a Friday.

[andyhb]

This is really tough... the only major hint is the day of the week, which only eliminates a couple of days. I have two guesses, but for now I'm going to guess 06/04/05.

 

You're right.

[brettjrob]

Damn, discovered this thread too late. Though it looks like there's no point trying against wxmann... he even knows the Plains days better than me, nevermind the rest.

[Thunder Road]

Damn, discovered this thread too late. Though it looks like there's no point trying against wxmann... he even knows the Plains days better than me, nevermind the rest.

 

Want to do the next one?  (If Andy's ok with it, of course.)

[andyhb]

Go right ahead (although wxmann won the last one).

[Thunder Road]

Go right ahead (although wxmann won the last one).

 

I can't even keep up with my own game.

[Superstorm93]

Not sure if you guys know about this site, but it might be a good resource for this game

 

High-Risk Days of the 1980s and 1990s

http://www.convectiveoutlook.com/highrisk/19801999/outlooks.htm

[Thunder Road]

Not sure if you guys know about this site, but it might be a good resource for this game

 

High-Risk Days of the 1980s and 1990s

http://www.convectiveoutlook.com/highrisk/19801999/outlooks.htm

 

It sure is news to me.  There used to be a 15Z outlook?

[andyhb]

It sure is news to me.  There used to be a 15Z outlook?

 

Yep, used to be 15z and 19z during the afternoon and 02z at night.

[tornadotony]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0258 PM CDT ### ### ## ####

VALID ##2000Z - ##1200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SPI SLO CGI JBR HOT PRX 35 SE SPS OKC END 40 ESE P28 ICT TOP FNB OMA OFK YKN OTG FRM ALO BRL SPI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N UIL 35 SSW CLM 35 ESE AST 15 SW EUG 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W BUF CXY 15 S ACY ...CONT... 15 ENE ECG 40 N RWI GSO 10 SE TRI 10 S LEX SDF MKL SHV 25 S CLL 25 E SAT 45 N HDO JCT 10 NE SJT 10 N SPS CSM GAG GLD DEN ASE PUC SLC TWF BOI 10 SSE LWS 10 ENE GEG 20 E FCA 10 WSW HVR SDY 40 W

[tornadotony]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0258 PM CDT ### ### ## ####

VALID ##2000Z - ##1200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SPI SLO CGI JBR HOT PRX 35 SE SPS OKC END 40 ESE P28 ICT TOP FNB OMA OFK YKN OTG FRM ALO BRL SPI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N UIL 35 SSW CLM 35 ESE AST 15 SW EUG 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W BUF CXY 15 S ACY ...CONT... 15 ENE ECG 40 N RWI GSO 10 SE TRI 10 S LEX SDF MKL SHV 25 S CLL 25 E SAT 45 N HDO JCT 10 NE SJT 10 N SPS CSM GAG GLD DEN ASE PUC SLC TWF BOI 10 SSE LWS 10 ENE GEG 20 E FCA 10 WSW HVR SDY 40 W P24 30 ENE MOT 65 NNW DVL ...CONT... 35 ESE RRT FAR ATY STC RHI 50 NNW ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....

...PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

LARGE-SCALE TROUGH...WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ...CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS EXIT REGION OF INTENSE HIGH-LEVEL JET PROGRESSES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ONGOING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH INITIAL SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE WHICH EXTENDS SOUTH OF SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY BECOMING FOCUS FOR MAXIMUM DESTABILIZATION/INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BY ##/00Z...DRY LINE APPEARS LIKELY TO EXTEND ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF THE INTERSTATE-35 CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. STRONG HEATING ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF LOWER 60S DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...PERHAPS 1500 J/KG...SUPPORTING VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM MIGRATING OUT OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

AS NOSE OF UPPER JET PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING...UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT ALONG/AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL WIND SHIFT ROTATING ACROSS THE OZARKS. AIDED BY MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT...SQUALL LINE MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS.

...MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...

ALTHOUGH CUT OFF FROM BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL IS POSSIBLE ALONG WARM FRONTAL ZONE NEAR/JUST EAST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

...UPPER OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...

WEAKENING MID/UPPER SPEED MAXIMUM ACCELERATING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION NOW SPREADING INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED ALONG/SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INTENSIFY FURTHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA...WHERE CAPE MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF HAIL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...IN DRIER...BUT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...A FEW STRONG GUSTS APPROACHING/BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN//CENTRAL/NORTHERN VIRGINIA.

..KERR.. ##/##/####

...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z

[metalicwx366]

5/7/2008? Just a wild guess.

[thewxmann]

Almost certainly 04/20/04.

 

I distinctly remember the isolated supercell in NE on this day, as well as the focus towards the dryline to the south. It being my first year tracking severe wx, I was absolutely excited for 2000 J/kg CAPE. Also, the events in this game are all significant... the outlook does not sound like it though... and the biggest underforecast event from the era where SPC used cities to define their risk areas was 4/20.

[tornadotony]

Almost certainly 04/20/04.

Yep.

[metalicwx366]

Easy one.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

xxxx xxx xxx xxx xx xxxx

VALID xxxxxx - xxxxxx

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM AR INTO WRN KY...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM

NERN TX INTO SWRN OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST

INTO CENTRAL OH...

...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY

FOR LONG-TRACK DAMAGING TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS LEADING EDGE OF IMPRESSIVE

LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH DRYLINE OVER TX.

CU FIELD IS EXPANDING/DEEPENING ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND SEVERAL

HEALTHY THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OVER THE HILL/ELLIS/DALLAS COUNTY

AREA. JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE...SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE IS NOTED

ALONG AN AXIS ROUGHLY 100 MI WIDE INTO SERN OK. AIRMASS IS WARMING

NICELY ACROSS THIS REGION WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW WELL INTO THE

70S. 18Z SOUNDINGS JUST DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE

CENTRAL GULF COAST SUGGEST STRONG CAP HAS WEAKENED AND LIFTED...PER

SHV/LZK/JAN. AS THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES IT APPEARS THIS

CAP WILL LIFT AND BECOME NEGLIGENT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS THAT EXIST

WITHIN THE BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS AR INTO NRN LA WILL DEEPEN

BECOMING DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WELL AHEAD OF THE

DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE SOME TIME...BUT IT

APPEARS BY EARLY EVENING THE SEVERE THREAT WILL PROVE

EXTENSIVE...STRETCHING FROM THE ARKLATEX...NEWD INTO WRN TN/KY...SWD

INTO NRN LA/MS. GIVEN THE 110KT H5 JET THAT WILL EJECT ACROSS THIS

REGION THIS EVENING...EXTREME VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL ENHANCE

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE

EXPECTED...STORM MERGERS AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SHOULD ENHANCE THE

POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF BOW-TYPE

STRUCTURES DEVELOP. THIS PROCESS MAY BECOME THE DOMINANT STORM MODE

LATE TONIGHT EAST OF THE MS RIVER. IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES AND

DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY SUPERCELLS MAINLY ACROSS

THE WRN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK.

..DARROW

[tornadotony]

2/5/08

[metalicwx366]

2/5/08

Yep that's it.

[tornadotony]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER ###

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

735 PM CDT ### ### ## ####

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS

EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 735 PM UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST OF BLOOMINGTON ILLINOIS TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF DANVILLE ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW ###...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS ARE DEVELOPING IN A BROKEN BAND ACROSS W/NW IL...WELL EAST OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND MIDLEVEL TROUGH IN IA. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF ASCENT/MOISTENING IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE /PER 00Z DVN SOUNDING/...THE STORMS SHOULD BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS IL. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.

...THOMPSON

[Hoosier]

6/5/2010

[tornadotony]

6/5/2010

I figured you would get it.

[andyhb]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0457

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0222 PM CDT _______________

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA...ERN AR...WRN AND MIDDLE TN...CNTRL AND

NRN MS AND AL...SERN MO...SRN IL...SRN IND AND WRN THROUGH CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH ___...___...

VALID ________ - _________

THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST

WITH STORMS MOVING THROUGH WRN AND MIDDLE TN INTO WRN AND CNTRL KY

NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM SRN IL INTO

SRN IND. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER S ACROSS PARTS

OF SERN AR...NRN LA INTO MS AND AL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE

STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE

HAIL ONCE THEY DEVELOP.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY

AND PARTS OF THE SERN U.S. WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG FROM

NERN LA...SERN AR INTO CNTRL AND NRN MS AND NRN AL. THE 18Z RAOB

FROM JACKSON STILL SHOWED SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE 850

MB-700 MB LAYER. WARMING AND MIXING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND

HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SEWD ADVANCING UPSTREAM VORT MAX

SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY

WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST WARM ADVECTION OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE

STRONG MID LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH

WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE POSITION RELATIVE

TO THE LOW LEVEL JET FOR VERTICAL SHEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS

WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. NEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL

LIKELY REMAIN DISCRETE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. KINEMATIC AND

THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR VERY

LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TORNADOES.

TORNADOES CONTINUE TO BE CONFIRMED WITH SUPERCELLS MOVING THROUGH

WRN AND MIDDLE TN AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL KY. THIS

ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND SHIFT ENEWD NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..DIAL.. __________

[metalicwx366]

4/7/2006????

[andyhb]

Yes

[Thunder Road]

since metalic isn't around, how about this one?

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER ___
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   730 AM CST ___ ___ __ ____
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          NORTHERN ARKANSAS
          WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
          SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN MISSOURI
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS ______ MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 730 AM UNTIL 300
   PM CST.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
   TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAINT
   LOUIS MISSOURI TO 20 MILES WEST OF RUSSELLVILLE ARKANSAS.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW ___...
   
   DISCUSSION...SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
   EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT NOW OVER WRN MO/ERN OK AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH NEG TILT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES NE ACROSS
   REGION.  WHILE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...STRENGTH OF
   SHEAR...CONTINUED MOIST INFLOW...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
   FRONT/EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SUGGEST POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
   SUSTAINED STORMS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE SUPERCELLS.  THESE COULD
   YIELD BRIEF TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
   GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
   MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.
   
   
   ...CORFIDI

[andyhb]

December 31st, 2010?

[Thunder Road]

December 31st, 2010?

 

Yup.

[andyhb]

Location and standard time were the ringers there.

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER ___   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1230 PM CDT _____________      THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF              CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS          MISSOURI BOOTHEEL          NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI          WESTERN TENNESSEE      EFFECTIVE THIS _________ AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1230 PM UNTIL   1000 PM CDT.      ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...      DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...   THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE   POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.      THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE   MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF LITTLE   ROCK ARKANSAS TO 50 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON TENNESSEE.    FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).      REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.      OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...______...______...______...______...     DISCUSSION...TSTM INITIATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO   HOURS WITHIN BROADLY CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS   AR.  HERE...AIR MASS IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF   2500 J/KG WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.    THIS INSTABILITY AXIS COINCIDES WITH A 60-70 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK   AND 40-50 KT LLJ...RESULTING IN VERY STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR   ACROSS THE BROAD WARM SECTOR.  CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ONE OR   MULTIPLE FAST-MOVING BANDS OF SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON   INTO EVENING WITH A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...SOME POTENTIAL STRONG TO   VIOLENT AND LONG-TRACKED...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.      AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.         ...MEAD

[thewxmann]

Wow, this is a surprisingly early watch. Got two guesses but the early time would favor 05/10/08.

[metalicwx366]

5/24/11