andyhb Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Well actually it was more a repetitive statement that is at the bottom of the text as well (which I missed), although I thought the location of the new watch might give it away. ...NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF SERN KS...SWRN MO...NERN OK...NWRN AR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK VALID __1630Z - __1200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ERI PIT CRW CSV HSV 50 SW CBM 20 SW GWO 55 SW MEM 20 SW CGI LAF AZO 10 E OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE GLS 50 NW ESF 20 NE PBF 25 SW POF 40 WSW SPI DBQ LNR 10 NE GRB ANJ ...CONT... HUL MWN ALB CXY DAN GSO SPA AGS 20 SSE SAV. ...LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO GREAT LAKES... UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM LOW IN NWRN IA INTO ERN TX. UPSTREAM VIGOROUS TROUGH MOVING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS SWRN CANADA WILL PROVIDE KICKER TO FORCE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH NEWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY AND WRN OH VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. STRONG...GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. COLD FRONT AT 15Z EXTENDED FROM WRN IL...SSWWD INTO SWRN AR WITH A WEAK SURFACE WAVE ON FRONT SRN IL. THE SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF FRONT IS VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS AOA 70F EXTENDING NWD INTO SRN MI. LAPSE RATES IN THIS AIRMASS IS RATHER WEAK....5-6C/KM...HOWEVER WHERE HEATING IS ABLE TO OCCUR MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 1500 J/KM SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON. WHILE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY WILL BE WIND DAMAGE IN THE STRONG 40-60 KT FLOW AT MID LEVELS...THERE IS SUFFICIENT TURNING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT THREAT OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY WRN TN AND OH VALLEY WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S. GIVEN ONLY A WEAK CAP...SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FAST STORM MOTION AROUND 40KT WILL ENHANCE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO LINES FROM WRN KY/TN WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. WITH THE LOW LFC'S OF AROUND 1KM ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP AS HELICITIES IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF FRONT WILL BE FROM 100-200 J/KG. FURTHER N CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND PCPN ACROSS MI/IN INTO NWRN OH SHOULD RESULT IN A REDUCED THREAT OF SEVERE MUCH OF AFTERNOON. HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY FROM FURTHER S LIKELY WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY NEWD INTO THIS AREA WITH A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE INTO THIS EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. ..HALES.. Tough one...gonna guess 9/20/02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Tough one...gonna guess 9/20/02. That's it. I thought the old formatting (svr storms right of a line etc) would be a hint that it was an older event. For those who may not be familiar, this was the day of the 100+ mile long tornado that went through Indy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT ### ### ## #### VALID ##1630Z - ##1200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN SD...EASTERN NEB...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN...MUCH OF IA...AND WESTERN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHERN IL INTO MS/AL... ...UPPER MIDWEST... A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING OUT OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 60-70 KNOT MID LEVEL JET MAX NOSING INTO MN. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SURGING EASTWARD ACROSS SD/NEB...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER TODAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS ACROSS EASTERN SD/NEB AND PORTIONS OF MN/IA WHERE AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000+ J/KG ARE EXPECTED. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT OVER EASTERN SD AND NORTHEAST NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH SHEAR VECTORS PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT SUGGESTING DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. SUFFICIENTLY LOW LCL HEIGHTS FURTHER INDICATE THAT A FEW TORNADOES /POSSIBLY STRONG/ MAY OCCUR DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENT. VERY LARGE HAIL IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ACROSS CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN/CENTRAL IA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WITH TIME...LINEAR FORCING MECHANISMS WILL PROMOTE A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MOST LIKELY THREAT ACROSS EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI. ...MID MS AND TN VALLEYS... A COUPLE OF REMNANT MCSS ARE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY GRADIENT FROM SOUTHERN IL INTO MIDDLE TN. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREA WILL HELP STORMS INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DESPITE RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. ...TX PANHANDLE... MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NM/WEST TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE HOT/MOIST ENVIRONMENT... STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THREAT IS UNCERTAIN...SO WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..HART/GRAMS.. ##/##/#### Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 8, 2013 Author Share Posted July 8, 2013 6/24/03? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 6/17/10?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 6/17/10?? This one. One of the more underbilled tornado outbreaks I can remember... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 8, 2013 Author Share Posted July 8, 2013 This one. One of the more underbilled tornado outbreaks I can remember... And not a single tornado in SD or NE either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 9, 2013 Author Share Posted July 9, 2013 metalicwx seems to be MIA, so here's one: DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 AM CDT ___ ___ __ ____ VALID __1300Z - __1200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NWRN TX...ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK...WRN/CENTRAL KS...SWRN/CENTRAL NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TX BIG BEND/SWRN TX NWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SD AND FAR ERN WY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO PART OF THE CAROLINAS... ...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE DRY LINE WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND LIKELY EXTEND FROM A LOW OVER FAR NERN CO SWD JUST EAST OF THE KS/CO BORDER INTO THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE AND FAR SWRN TX BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THOUGH SMALL SCALE DETAILS ARE DIFFERENT...OPERATIONAL MODELS ALONG WITH SREF AND HIGH-RESOLUTION WRFS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN PARTS OF THIS REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER/SUPERCELLS. IMPRESSIVE EML EVIDENT ON MORNING SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE OVER WRN HALF OF THE SRN PLAINS BY LATER TODAY...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NWD INTO WRN NEB. MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IS FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL MODELS JUST EAST OF DRY LINE INTO WRN KS...WITH AXIS OF NEARLY 1000 J/KG MLCAPE NOSING NNWWD TOWARDS NWRN NEB. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ALONG THE WRN PLAINS DESPITE STRONGEST MID LEVEL JET EXTENDING NNEWD BEHIND THE DRY LINE OVER ERN CO. AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE...COMPLEXITIES REMAIN REGARDING EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF INITIATION AND IN OVERALL MODE OF STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION. CAPPING EVIDENT ON MORNING SOUNDINGS WILL AID IN NNWWD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND RETARD DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS THROUGH THE MORNING. OVERNIGHT NAM AND GFS WERE BOTH SEVERAL DEGREES TOO COOL AT H85 AND FAIL TO ACCURATELY DEPICT CAP AT AMA ACCORDING TO THE 12Z SOUNDING. HOWEVER...BOTH DID WELL AT DDC AND NAM-KF WAS ACCURATE AT AMA AND DDC. STRONGEST ASCENT AND MODEST HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT INITIAL DEVELOPMENT INTO WRN NEB AND NWRN KS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG NOSE OF 90+ KT H5 JET. MODELS SUGGESTING RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN BROAD AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE INTO WRN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN TX BETWEEN 21-00Z AS CAP WEAKENS. HOW LONG ACTIVITY REMAINS IN THE FORM OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS REMAINS HARD TO SAY ATTM...AS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO LINEAR STRUCTURES AS IT EVOLVES ENEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING HAIL AND STRONG TORNADOES INTO THE EARLY-MID EVENING WITH DISCRETE STORMS. WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AS LINEAR ORGANIZATION BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT THIS EVENING. LACK OF EWD PROGRESSION WITH OVERALL SYSTEM AND NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS...SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL SD/NE/KS/OK LATER THIS EVENING. NAM AND GFS ARE ALSO INDICATING SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND LARGE UPPER LOW AND INTO THE NERN NM/SERN CO LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER MCS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...OVER WRN TX INTO WRN OK/SWRN KS OVERNIGHT. ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO NC... COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM SERN VA INTO CENTRAL KY WILL SAG SSWWD AS A BACK-DOOR FRONT INTO NC AND EXTEND ROUGHLY E-W FROM ERN NC INTO SWRN VA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR UNDER EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 35-45 KT MID LEVEL JET NOW OVER KY/TN WHICH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY. NAM-KF SOUNDINGS NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT INDICATE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AS AIR MASS BECOMES MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP ESEWD INTO THE EVENING...THOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. ..EVANS/LEVIT.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 3/28/07? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 3/28/07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 9, 2013 Author Share Posted July 9, 2013 3/28/07? You beat Tony by 4 minutes! (Sorry Tony.) Your turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 This one should be really easy. BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER ___ STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 PM CDT _______________ THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS WESTERN LOUISIANA EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL 700 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 1/2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 125 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST OF COLLEGE STATION TEXAS TO 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA. REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION... CONTINUE...WW ___...WW ___... DISCUSSION...VERY LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /CAPE TO 5000 J/KG/ OVER REGION. ANY TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS GIVEN COMPARATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 1/2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020. ...CORFIDI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 5/27/97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Yes, figured it'd be really easy. Your turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 9, 2013 Author Share Posted July 9, 2013 Yes, figured it'd be really easy. Your turn. Where did you get a WW from 1997? My first (and only) instinct was Jarrell, but I thought it couldn't be because it was from the 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT _____________ VALID ________ - ________ ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS ERN AR...NRN LA...WRN TN AND NWRN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS ATTENDANT 90-100 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS THIS OCCURS...THE ZONE OF STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES. FARTHER S...STRONGLY DIFFLUENT REGION BETWEEN CYCLONIC POLAR JET STREAK AND ANTICYCLONIC SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK FROM NRN MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MAINTAIN A BROAD ZONE OF ASCENT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MID SOUTH. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN IA THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NNEWD INTO SERN MN BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND INTO NRN WI OR THE WRN UP OF MI BY SATURDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM MI SWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MOIST PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS /DEWPOINTS OF 65-70F/ BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /EML/ ORIGINATING OVER THE SRN PLATEAU REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WITH AIR MASS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG. NOCTURNAL...QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /QLCS/ REMAINS CLOSELY TIED TO SYNOPTIC-SCALE COLD FRONT FROM AR SWWD INTO ERN TX. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REINTENSIFY TODAY AS FRONT PROGRESSES EWD AND ENCOUNTERS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ADDITIONAL...MORE DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR GRAVITY WAVE WHICH HAS PROPAGATED AHEAD OF QLCS...EXTENDING FROM THE MS DELTA REGION SWWD INTO NERN LA AS OF 1530Z. AREA VWPS/PROFILERS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG ACROSS WARM SECTOR /ALONG SRN EXTENSION OF 40-50 KT LLJ/ WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 200-350 M2/S2. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSE BOWING AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES /A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG/...CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY... NRN EXTENSION OF NOCTURNAL QLCS MENTIONED ABOVE HAS PROGRESSED WELL E OF SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO WRN KY/SRN IL WITH AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF TSTMS INTENSIFYING FROM HOP NWD INTO WRN IND AS OF 1530Z. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT 45-55 KT LLJ WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES TODAY: 1) SUPPORTING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION...AND 2) RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. AS SUCH...EXPECT ONGOING STORMS TO INTENSIFY WHILE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY FROM VICINITY OF OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW SWD ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM ERN IA/SRN WI SWD ACROSS ERN MO AND IL. CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD TEND TO RESTRICT DAYTIME HEATING...THOUGH THE COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT WEAK TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCUR...THE STRONGLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW SUGGEST THAT A CORRIDOR OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE ___ ___. ..MEAD/DIAL.. _________ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Where did you get a WW from 1997? My first (and only) instinct was Jarrell, but I thought it couldn't be because it was from the 90s. It was from the SPC cool images page. Thought it would be interesting so I posted it here knowing everyone would get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Really not confident about Andy's latest one -- but the fact that a QLCS is already impinging upon the MDT risk suggests 05/02/08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Really not confident about Andy's latest one -- but the fact that a QLCS is already impinging upon the MDT risk suggests 05/02/08. Apparently you should be more confident...cuz that's right lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Haha, nice. Someone else do the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 10, 2013 Author Share Posted July 10, 2013 It seems the game may have worn itself out, but I'll post one more and see if we can keep it going. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT ___ ___ __ ____ VALID __1630Z - __1200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN SD...SRN MN AND EXTREME WRN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN DELMARVA... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN ND WILL SHIFT EWD INTO NRN MN TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW OVER WRN SD AND ASSOCIATED N-S COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS/CENTRAL NEB BY EARLY EVENING..AND THEN INTO MN/WRN IA TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW MOVING SHOULD MAINTAIN CURRENT POSITION OF WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM EAST CENTRAL SD ESEWD ACROSS FAR SRN MN TO NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER. CONVERGENCE ALONG WARM FRONT SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY STRONG HEATING SOUTH AND CLOUDS/COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG EWD EXTENSION OF FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ...NRN PLNS INTO UPR MS VLY... WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT AND POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE DAKOTAS WILL REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF HEATING ACROSS THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN ND IN ASSOCIATION WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING. DESPITE STABLE BOUNDARY...EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 50 KT AND MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...AS OBSERVED ON BIS MORNING SOUNDING...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS TO MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS TOWARD SERN ND/NRN SD. DESPITE RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE DEGREE OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE HAIL/WINDS. OTHER ELEVATED STORMS ARE ALSO LOCATED ACROSS SERN MN/WRN WI IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF WARM FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY ALSO FAVOR SEVERE HAIL/WINDS WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY GRADUALLY MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD. SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS ERN SD/SWRN MN WHERE STRONG HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 14-16C SHOULD KEEP THIS AREA CAPPED MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH THIS LAYER WILL COOL AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS INTO THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO FIRST DEVELOP N OF THE BOUNDARY AS THE CAP SHOULD ERODE MORE RAPIDLY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THOUGH THESE STORMS WOULD BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...THE STORMS MAY QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO A LINE/BOW AND THEN MOVE ESEWD. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. EVENTUALLY...SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND 60 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS. ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT CAN BE MAINTAINED NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL INGEST A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 25-30 KT 1 KM SHEAR...WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING ...THE SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LINE/BOW AND MOVE ESEWD ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN MN AND INTO WI...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BECOMING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH SOME POSSIBLY EXTREME. ...NEB... HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG SRN EXTENSION OF COLD FRONT FROM SERN SD SWWD ACROSS NEB LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KT AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 50F WOULD SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...DELMARVA... ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WAS PREVALENT ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVING EWD THROUGH THE AREA...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ..IMY/TAYLOR.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 August 24th, 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 5/24/10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 10, 2013 Author Share Posted July 10, 2013 August 24th, 2006. Only took you 4 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 lol DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 AM CDT SAT _____________ VALID ________ - ________ (Took out the outlook coordinates) ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEB...SOUTHWEST IA...EASTERN KS...AND WESTERN MO... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHERN OK NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX INTO MN/WI... ...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS FORECAST TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. TWO WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE ROTATING THROUGH THIS REGION. THE FIRST TROUGH IS NOW OVER NORTHWEST MO AND WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY. THE SECOND TROUGH WILL ROTATE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE THIS EVENING. ...ERN NEB/IA/ERN KS/MO... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF OK/TX AND WESTERN AR...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF KS/MO...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT STEADILY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS REGION. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AT AND ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL HELP TRANSPORT MARITIME AIR MASS NORTHWARD TODAY...WITH HIGH THETA-E AIR EXPECTED INTO MUCH OF EASTERN NEB AND IA BY MID AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS REGION AFTER MORNING CLOUDS ERODE...RESULTING IN AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG POSSIBLE/. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A RATHER STRONG CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...CAP IS EXPECTED TO ERODE ALONG SURFACE DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN NEB INTO EAST-CENTRAL KS. EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST IN THIS AREA. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY...WILL PROMOTE THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN IA AND WESTERN MO DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA SHOW EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KNOTS...AND EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2 DURING THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. COMBINATION OF VERY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PARAMETERS...LOW LCL HEIGHTS...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND EXTREME INSTABILITY INDICATE THE THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES THIS EVENING. ...OK/TX... SURFACE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTH CENTRAL OK INTO CENTRAL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. FULL SUNSHINE...AMPLE MOISTURE...AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG AND EAST OF DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. PRIMARY DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL BE FROM SOUTHERN KS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE REACHED ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF TX/OK...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG OK PORTION OF DRYLINE...WHERE STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL BE PRESENT. STORMS IN THIS REGION MAY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING DUE TO LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT. ...CENTRAL NEB/EASTERN SD/MN... MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE OVER WESTERN NEB THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS PROGD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEB INTO SOUTHEAST SD. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ACTIVITY MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF MN THIS EVENING. ..HART/BANACOS.. __________ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 5/29/04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Nope to 5/29/04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 4/13/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 10, 2013 Author Share Posted July 10, 2013 4/14/12? (if it is, give it to the other guy, since I bet he was thinking of the 14th.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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