Severe Weather Text Product Game

[thewxmann]

Not 4/12/13 or 5/30/12.

[tornadotony]

Good guess, but nope.

Yeah as soon as I sent it, I realized what it was. I won't make the second guess, though.

[andyhb]

4/6/06 or 5/13/09?

 

And damn...I was going to guess 1/7/08 with the earlier one but my mind went "that was centered further SW and also in WI".

 

Er...wait, those two troughs don't match the second part there.

 

5/10/03 or 5/30/04?

[thewxmann]

Yupp, 5/30/04, although next time please only guess one date at a time. Your turn.

[andyhb]

This should be a pretty easy one.

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1111 AM CDT ___ __________      VALID _______ - ________      ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN KS/SWRN MO SWD THRU   ERN OK FAR WRN AR INTO PORTIONS OF NERN TX...      ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS  OF THE CENTRAL   AND SRN PLAINS INTO  PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...      ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...      ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED LATER THIS   AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...      DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER CO/NM WILL DEEPEN ENEWD INTO CENTRAL KS BY   TONIGHT AS POWERFUL UPSTREAM JET AND COLD ADVECTION ROTATE SEWD   ACROSS SRN ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW NWRN OK   DEEPENS NNEWD INTO KS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A SECONDARY LOW TAKES   SHAPE BY THIS EVENING SRN OK/TX BORDER IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF   THE UPSTREAM JET AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT.      PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR THE INITIATION OF THE FORECAST OUTBREAK OF   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ON THE DRY LINE BY MID/LATE   AFTERNOON.  FROM THE SURFACE LOW IN KS THE DRY LINE SHOULD MIX OUT   TO A POSITION FROM NEAR RSL SSEWD TO ABOUT ICT AND THEN VICINITY   I-35 INTO NRN TX.      THE ONLY QUESTION WILL BE THE MOISTURE RETURN BUT GIVEN THE VERY   STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL   DEVELOP WITH MLCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG NWD AHEAD OF DRY LINE INTO   CENTRAL/SERN KS.      DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE BY MID/LATE   AFTERNOON BENEATH STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER JET SPREADING ACROSS THE   DRYLINE. THE STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER   VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /NEAR 70 KT IN THE 0-8 KM LAYER/ WILL FAVOR A   FEW LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL DEVELOP RATHER   QUICKLY ONCE INITIATION OCCURS. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE ALSO   FORECAST TO ENLARGE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW LEVEL   JET BACKS AND INCREASES...WITH EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES INCREASING TO   200-400 M2 S-2. THIS SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC   SUPERCELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOS.      WITH THE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE RED RIVER THIS   EVENING...HIGH RES MODELS SUPPORT A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LONG LIVED   TORNADIC SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING ACROSS SERN OK. DEEPER MOISTURE AND   THE DIFFLUENCE OF THE APPROACHING 120KT UPPER JET MAX WILL BE   FOCUSING ON THIS AREA BY THIS EVENING AND IT WILL BE MONITORED FOR A   POSSIBLE UPGRADE IN THE AFTERNOON UPDATE IF THIS SCENARIO SEEMS   LIKELY TO PLAY OUT.      SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NWRN OK SWWD INTO TX PANHANDLE IS   FORECAST TO RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS ERN OK INTO WRN AR AFTER 00Z.   STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL LINEAR FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO AID   IN UPSCALE GROWTH TO A QLCS STRUCTURE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY   MOVE ACROSS AR AND SRN MO OVERNIGHT...POSING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING   WINDS. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH EMBEDDED   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.      ..HALES/STOPPKOTTE.. _________

[thewxmann]

04/14/11?

[andyhb]

Lol that was way too easy, damn.

[thewxmann]

Lol that was way too easy, damn.

 

Haha it did take some thinking. I was originally thinking 5/4/03 or 4/14/12 but then realized the geographical locations were incorrect.

 

The secondary low in SE OK did seem pretty familiar.

[thewxmann]

If anyone else wants to do one then go ahead. Otherwise, I'll post a new one tomorrow.

[Thunder Road]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1127 AM CDT ___ ___ __ _____

VALID __1630Z - __1200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR

PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

ON THE LARGER SCALE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE

CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THIS AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A

NEWD EJECTING SPEED MAX EMANATING FROM THE SRN GREAT BASIN. IN THE

LOW LEVELS...A WEAK LEE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN ACROSS ERN CO...WHILE

ANOTHER COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SWD INTO NRN NEB AND ERN WY. S OF THE

COLD FRONT AND N OF THE LEE CYCLONE...UPSLOPE FLOW OF LOW-MID 50S

BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINTAINED INVOF ANOTHER/WEAKER

BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NW KS/SW NEB NWWD INTO SE WY. SURFACE HEATING

W OF AN INITIAL CIRRUS BAND AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES

APPROACH 70-72 F IN SE WY AND 78-80 F IN NE CO...WITH INITIAL

DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FROM AREAS N OF THE PALMER DIVIDE TO THE

CHEYENNE RIDGE AND LARAMIE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION WILL THEN SPREAD

EWD THIS EVENING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY

/MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG/.

50-60 KT WLY FLOW ALOFT ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL ELY/ESELY FLOW WILL

RESULT IN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS /EFFECTIVE BULK

SHEAR OF 45-55 KT/. RELATIVELY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS COULD SUPPORT

STORM SPLITS INITIALLY...WHILE A TENDENCY FOR INCREASED CLOCKWISE

CURVATURE AND HODOGRAPH LENGTH WITH EWD EXTENT AND LATER THIS

EVENING SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED

VERY LARGE HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BY EARLY TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO

TRANSITION INTO MORE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS IN ASSOCIATION

WITH INCREASING WAA... WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT

CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO NEB.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE

UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL REDUCE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND SUPPORT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEE

TROUGH/DRYLINE FROM SW KS INTO TX PANHANDLE/W CENTRAL TX. MODERATE

INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR COULD BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR

HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND

STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.

...NE NC/SE VA THIS AFTERNOON...

A REMNANT MCV IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC TOWARD SE VA...ALONG

A STALLED NE-SW ORIENTED FRONT. A BAND OF 25-30 KT LOW-MID LEVEL

FLOW E/SE OF THE MCV AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE

FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS. AN

ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY

IN ADVANCE OF THE MCV FROM N CENTRAL/NE NC INTO SE VA THIS

AFTERNOON.

...NRN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...

SURFACE HEATING AND A BROAD REGION OF ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF A

SPEED MAX ROTATING AROUND THE CA/NV CLOSED LOW WILL PROMOTE

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM NRN

NV/UT NWD INTO SRN ID. THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE LOCATED

FARTHER E TOWARD NW UT AND SE ID WHERE CLOUDS WILL MORE LIKELY

INTERFERE WITH SURFACE HEATING...AND THE STRONGER SURFACE HEATING

WILL OCCUR FARTHER W/NW TOWARD S/SW ID WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE

WEAKER. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG

OUTFLOW WINDS...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY

MARGINAL AND/OR ISOLATED.

..THOMPSON/SMITH..

[tornadotony]

6/7/12

[thewxmann]

This one's tough. Going to blindly guess the mother of all high plains upslope days -- 06/05/09 (Lagrange, WY tornado).

[Thunder Road]

This one's tough. Going to blindly guess the mother of all high plains upslope days -- 06/05/09 (Lagrange, WY tornado).

 

Yup.

 

I'm evil, but I'm not that evil that I'd give you a completely nondescript upslope day and expect you to get it.

[thewxmann]

Here's an MD. I figure this shouldn't take too long for you guys to figure out.

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ____
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 PM CDT ____________

AREAS AFFECTED...NE AR/SE MO/WRN TN/NRN MS/WRN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH ___...

VALID __0034Z - __0230Z

A DANGEROUS TORNADO SITUATION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT
FROM NE AR INTO WRN TN THIS EVENING. VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
/0-3 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 500 M2/2/ AND A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR
MASS COEXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NE AR AND WRN TN. STORMS
FORMING IN AR WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND
MOVE EWD INTO WRN TN. ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL...A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LONG-LIVED/INTENSE TORNADOES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.


THE HIGH RISK AREA WILL BE EXTENDED EWD INTO WRN TN IN THE 01Z
OUTLOOK UPDATE.

..THOMPSON.. _________


ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...

[southmdwatcher]

2/5/08

[tornadotony]

5/4/03

[thewxmann]

5/4/03

Yes, that's the one.

[metalicwx366]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION xxx

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0256 PM CDT xxx x xxxx

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF MS/AL INTO SOUTHERN TN AND NORTHWEST GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH xxx...xxx...

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION /PDS/ TORNADO WATCHES xxx/xxx

CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z/03Z RESPECTIVELY. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR

LONG-TRACK STRONG/PERHAPS VIOLENT TORNADOES INTO THIS EVENING AS A

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ONLY INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE/RISK.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION CONTINUES TO

UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PART OF MS/AL...WITH ADJACENT

PORTIONS OF TN/NORTHWEST GA ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME A CONCERN LATE

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...REASONABLY

SUPPORTED BY EXPERIMENTAL HRRR GUIDANCE...IMPLY THAT SCATTERED

SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM IN BROKEN NNE-SSW ORIENTED

CORRIDORS OF SUBTLE CONFLUENCE AHEAD /EAST/ OF MORE

STORMS/SUPERCELLS THAT ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-COLD FRONTAL

TROUGH/DRYLINE GENERALLY NEARING I-55 IN MS.

THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS HAS AGGRESSIVELY DESTABILIZED THIS AFTERNOON

AMID NEAR 70F/LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...REFERENCE SPECIAL 18Z

OBSERVED RAOBS FROM JACKSON MS/BIRMINGHAM AL...WITH A WIDE/HIGHLY

SHEARED MOIST SECTOR IN PLACE ALONG/SOUTH OF A MODIFYING WEST-EAST

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /NOW AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT/ ACROSS FAR NORTHERN

PORTIONS OF AL/MS. EXTREME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...VIA LONG/CURVING LOW

LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...WILL REMAIN HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS

CAPABLE OF LONG-TRACK STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES INTO THIS EVENING

AMID 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-500 M2/S2 OR GREATER /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE

AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN MS AND AL BOUNDARY/.

..GUYER..

[andyhb]

4/27/11, probably the strongest worded MCD I've ever seen, and rightly so.

[metalicwx366]

4/27/11, probably the strongest worded MCD I've ever seen, and rightly so.

Yep that's right.

[andyhb]

Had to take out a part of the text as it may have gave it away.

 

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ____   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0442 PM CDT ______________      AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN KS...MUCH OF OK...SWRN MO...NWRN AR      CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH ___...___...      VALID _______ - _______      THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH ___...___...CONTINUES.     >Omitted text was here.      RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SCNTRL KS INTO NERN   OK AHEAD OF SFC LOW ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WEST OF PNC.  FOCUSED   PRESSURE FALLS ARE NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH 2 HOUR   FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 4-7MB.  NEEDLESS TO SAY SHEAR AND   THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE UNUSUALLY STRONG AND VERY SUPPORTIVE OF   VIOLENT TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.  LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST EARLIER   ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS NOW MORE CONCENTRATED AND FOCUSED ALONG SURGING   DRYLINE WITH AT LEAST HALF A DOZEN STRONG TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING   SUPERCELLS...A FEW WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES...FROM   KINGMAN COUNTY KS...ARCING TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF OKC IN SWRN   OKLAHOMA.      LATEST THINKING IS SPEED/MOVEMENT OF CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL REQUIRE   AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH TO BE ISSUED OVER SERN KS/SWRN MO/NERN   OK/NWRN AR SHORTLY.      ..DARROW.. _________

[tornadotony]

5/24/11

[Thunder Road]

5/8/03?

[Hoosier]

I've got one if y'all let me go next.

[andyhb]

Nope to 5/8/03 or 5/24/11.

[Thunder Road]

I've got one if y'all let me go next.

 

Sure.  Once we figure out Andy's.

[thewxmann]

05/10/10?

[andyhb]

05/10/10?

 

Bingo.

[Hoosier]

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

VALID __1630Z - __1200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ERI

PIT CRW CSV HSV 50 SW CBM 20 SW GWO 55 SW MEM 20 SW CGI LAF AZO

10 E OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE GLS 50 NW ESF

20 NE PBF 25 SW POF 40 WSW SPI DBQ LNR 10 NE GRB ANJ ...CONT...

HUL MWN ALB CXY DAN GSO SPA AGS 20 SSE SAV.

...LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO GREAT LAKES...

UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM LOW IN NWRN IA INTO ERN TX.

UPSTREAM VIGOROUS TROUGH MOVING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS SWRN CANADA WILL

PROVIDE KICKER TO FORCE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH NEWD ACROSS MID MS

VALLEY AND WRN OH VALLEY BY THIS EVENING.

STRONG...GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH AND

SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. COLD FRONT AT 15Z EXTENDED FROM WRN

IL...SSWWD INTO SWRN AR WITH A WEAK SURFACE WAVE ON FRONT SRN IL.

THE SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF FRONT IS VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS AOA

70F EXTENDING NWD INTO SRN MI. LAPSE RATES IN THIS AIRMASS IS

RATHER WEAK....5-6C/KM...HOWEVER WHERE HEATING IS ABLE TO OCCUR

MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 1500 J/KM SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON.

WHILE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY WILL BE WIND DAMAGE IN THE STRONG 40-60

KT FLOW AT MID LEVELS...THERE IS SUFFICIENT TURNING IN THE BOUNDARY

LAYER TO SUPPORT THREAT OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY WRN

TN AND OH VALLEY WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID

80S.

GIVEN ONLY A WEAK CAP...SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FAST STORM MOTION AROUND 40KT WILL ENHANCE

WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO LINES FROM WRN

KY/TN WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. WITH THE LOW LFC'S OF AROUND 1KM

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP AS

HELICITIES IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF FRONT WILL BE FROM 100-200 J/KG.

FURTHER N CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND PCPN ACROSS MI/IN INTO NWRN

OH SHOULD RESULT IN A REDUCED THREAT OF SEVERE MUCH OF AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY FROM FURTHER S LIKELY WILL

DEVELOP RAPIDLY NEWD INTO THIS AREA WITH A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE

INTO THIS EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA.

..HALES..

[Thunder Road]

05/10/10?

 

 

Bingo.

 

Damn it!  This was my first guess, but for some reason I didn't remember Kansas being as much in play.

 

Just curious, what's the give-away statement that you had to omit?