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Severe Weather Text Product Game

Thunder Road

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thewxmann

thewxmann

Posted
Posted

This could be very easy or very hard; given the caliber of the participants ITT, I'm leaning towards the former :P

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER ___
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   200 AM EST _____________
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
          MUCH OF INDIANA
          WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
          WESTERN OHIO
          WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
          LAKE ERIE
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING FROM 200 AM UNTIL 700 AM EST.
   
   HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
   TOLEDO OHIO TO 35 MILES EAST OF MEMPHIS TENNESSEE.  FOR A COMPLETE
   DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
   PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
   WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
   WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
   TORNADOES.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW ___...
   
   DISCUSSION...MID MS VLY SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENE AT 45+
   KTS.  WHILE LINE WILL BE MOVING INTO SOMEWHAT WEAKER SURFACE-BASED
   INSTABILITY ...EMBEDDED STORMS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR HIGH
   WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS 75 KT UPSTREAM MID LEVEL WIND MAX
   SWEEPS ENEWD.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 24050.
   
   
   ...CORFIDI
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andyhb

andyhb

Posted
Posted

Ok.

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER ___   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   240 PM CDT_____________________      THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF              PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA          LARGE PART OF NORTHEAST KANSAS          MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA      EFFECTIVE THIS ________ AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ___ _ UNTIL   ____ PM CDT.      ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...      DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...   THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE   POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.      THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF   NORFOLK NEBRASKA TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF MANHATTAN KANSAS.  FOR A   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).      REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.      OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE..._____..._____..._____...      DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN BOTH NUMBER AND   INTENSITY ACROSS CENTRAL NE/KS AS AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE.    VERY FAVORABLE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT TORNADIC   SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THRU THE EVENING.    SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL OF STRONG/LONG TRACK   TORNADOES.      AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE   WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO   600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.         ...HALES
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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER ### NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 930 AM CDT ___ ### ## ####

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN ALABAMA

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS ______ AND AFTERNOON FROM _____ UNTIL ___ CDT. ...

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF NASHVILLE TENNESSEE TO 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3)

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION

DISCUSSION ...A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEEPENING FROM N-CNTRL MS NWD TO E OF MKL IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO TSTMS LATE THIS MORNING WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED AND WARMING/DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. THE COMBINATION OF EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2...MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE DISCRETE STORM MODES SUGGEST A THREAT LONG-TRACKED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.

...MEAD

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Thunder Road

Thunder Road

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER ### NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 930 AM CDT ___ ### ## ####

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN ALABAMA

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS ______ AND AFTERNOON FROM _____ UNTIL ___ CDT. ...

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF NASHVILLE TENNESSEE TO 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3)

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION

DISCUSSION ...A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEEPENING FROM N-CNTRL MS NWD TO E OF MKL IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO TSTMS LATE THIS MORNING WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED AND WARMING/DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. THE COMBINATION OF EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2...MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE DISCRETE STORM MODES SUGGEST A THREAT LONG-TRACKED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.

...MEAD

 

btw, I always paste products into the Code <> option so that the formatting doesn't get all messed up.

 

And as for a guess, April 10, 2009?  I had to look up the date, but I'm thinking it could be the Murfreesboro, TN tornado?

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Indeed, it is. What surprised me most about this watch was the forecaster who issued it (Corfidi), as he is one of the most bullish at SPC with regards to issuing tornado watches.

Your turn.

The interesting thing about that is that there were only a few tornadoes in that watch box area, which you would normally say is a pretty good call. Of course one of them killed 24 people.

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

btw, I always paste products into the Code <> option so that the formatting doesn't get all messed up.

And as for a guess, April 10, 2009? I had to look up the date, but I'm thinking it could be the Murfreesboro, TN tornado?

I'll do that next time. I had the formatting all messed up lol.

Nope, it wasn't April 10,2009.

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

10/26/10 (i.e. Octobomb)? By the way, for watches, try to keep it to ones that effectively verified (i.e. for a PDS tornado watch, a more substantial event then a few F/EF0s or F/EF1s occurred within the watch box).

Yeah that's it. This was the only PDS watch I could find that day. There were none in the high risk area.
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tornadotony

tornadotony

Posted
Posted

This one should be pretty easy.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER ###

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 235 PM CST ### ### # ####

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHEAST IOWA

MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS

SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST INDIANA

LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL 900 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PEORIA ILLINOIS TO 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF MEIGS FIELD ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW ###...

DISCUSSION...WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS WATCH AREA AND THE VERY STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NRN IL. IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THREAT...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE DISCRETE UPDRAFTS NOW DEVELOPING NERN MO AND NWRN IL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.

...

HALES

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thewxmann

thewxmann

Posted
Posted

Yep. I knew this would be easy. I even replaced the watch numbers with three pound signs each because I figured knowing they were single-digit numbers would be a dead giveaway.

 

Haha, didn't even notice that. The CST and the "unseasonably warm and moderately unstable air mass" combined with the max tops to 450 were the giveaways to me that this was a wintertime event. 

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thewxmann

thewxmann

Posted
Posted

New one:

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ____
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0940 AM CDT SUN ____________

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK THROUGH MUCH OF MO/SE IA/W CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID __1440Z - __1715Z

SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE BY/SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. ONE OR MORE
TORNADO WATCHES LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT MAY TRANSITION RAPIDLY TO
EVOLUTION OF SQUALL LINE...BUT THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES
EXISTS.

LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OUT
OF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND IS TAKING ON INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT.
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTENING/LIFT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...ROUGHLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM WEST SOUTHWEST OF MCALESTER OK
INTO AREAS WEST OF KIRKSVILLE MO. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS
FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WEAKENS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATE TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE...WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG
. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY WITH LITTLE TO IMPEDE SURFACE
HEATING. WARM SECTOR SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS BELT OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY NEXT FEW HOURS.

WHILE LINEAR FORCING MAY SUPPORT QUICK EVOLUTION OF SEVERE SQUALL
LINE...TORNADOES WILL BE A THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN
LINE...AS WELL AS WITH ANY SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF
LINE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION...NOW JUST EAST OF
KANSAS CITY MO...MAY POSE MOST SIGNIFICANT INITIAL THREAT FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELL FORMATION. STRONGER 2 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS HAVE
BECOME EVIDENT NEAR THIS WAVE...WHICH MAY SUPPORT INITIATION BY/
SHORTLY AFTER 18Z SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF CHILLICOTHE MO INTO AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF KIRKSVILLE.

..KERR.. _________


ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OUN...
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tornadotony

tornadotony

Posted
Posted

New one: 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ____
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0940 AM CDT SUN ____________

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK THROUGH MUCH OF MO/SE IA/W CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID __1440Z - __1715Z

SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE BY/SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. ONE OR MORE
TORNADO WATCHES LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT MAY TRANSITION RAPIDLY TO
EVOLUTION OF SQUALL LINE...BUT THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES
EXISTS.

LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OUT
OF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND IS TAKING ON INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT.
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTENING/LIFT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...ROUGHLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM WEST SOUTHWEST OF MCALESTER OK
INTO AREAS WEST OF KIRKSVILLE MO. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS
FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WEAKENS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATE TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE...WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG
. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY WITH LITTLE TO IMPEDE SURFACE
HEATING. WARM SECTOR SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS BELT OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY NEXT FEW HOURS.

WHILE LINEAR FORCING MAY SUPPORT QUICK EVOLUTION OF SEVERE SQUALL
LINE...TORNADOES WILL BE A THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN
LINE...AS WELL AS WITH ANY SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF
LINE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION...NOW JUST EAST OF
KANSAS CITY MO...MAY POSE MOST SIGNIFICANT INITIAL THREAT FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELL FORMATION. STRONGER 2 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS HAVE
BECOME EVIDENT NEAR THIS WAVE...WHICH MAY SUPPORT INITIATION BY/
SHORTLY AFTER 18Z SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF CHILLICOTHE MO INTO AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF KIRKSVILLE.

..KERR.. _________


ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OUN...

4/2/06

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Thunder Road

Thunder Road

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  • Author
Posted

The early start time and region outlined makes me think 4/12/13, but not that much happened that day (so far as I remember), so I'm hesitant to make it my guess.

 

Ah what the hell?  I'll go with it.  4/12/13.

 

 

D'oh, I mean 4/17.

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