Thunder Road Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 I figured it might be fun to start some kind of game to get us through the July doldrums. I would post some or all of either an AC, MD, WW, or AFD, and then everyone would guess the event. Text products only though, no maps. Before I waste my time laying down rules and looking for the first case...would anyone be interested in playing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 Sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 Down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 Count me in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 I'm in How far back can we dig into the archives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 4, 2013 Author Share Posted July 4, 2013 Anyone will be allowed to jump in at any time. I will post either a snippet or all of a Convective Outlook, Mesoscale Discussion, Weather Watch, or Area Forecast Discussion that pertains to a significant severe weather event (most will be tornadoes or derechoes but there might be some flash flooding thrown in as well). Archives of such products are only available back to 2002-2004 or so, and AFDs only since 2009, so these will all be relatively recent events. Obviously, dates will be blacked out in the products. I am looking for a guess that is the correct date - day, month, and year. If you think you know the case, but you're not sure what day it happened on, you may look up the actual date. (For example, if you know it's the Andover, KS tornado but you don't know the date, you could Google it and find April 26, 1991, submit it, and win.) However, you are not allowed to go into the archives and check any text products of that day to "check" if you're right before submitting. That's cheating. And while there's really no way to enforce it, keep in mind that the game is really only fun if everyone plays fairly. I will not post intentionally-misleading products. I will not post any significant forecast busts (such as the forecast the day of the Washington, DC derecho). I will also not post irrelevant products, like an MD from Maine the same day as tornado outbreak in Nebraska. First one to correctly guess is the winner. So as not to clutter the thread, I will only post when someone guesses correctly. Edited: The winner then picks the next product for everyone to guess on. Sound good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 4, 2013 Author Share Posted July 4, 2013 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 AM CDT _______________ VALID _______ - _________ ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MN...WESTERN WI...AND EXTREME WESTERN UPPER MI... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHEAST NEB...NORTHWEST MO...AND SOUTHWEST IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST TX...ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG AN AXIS FROM NORTHERN WI INTO KS... ...MN/WI/WRN UP... DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE DRAWING MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH THE 60S OVER IA/EASTERN SD/SOUTHWEST MN. THIS AREA SHOULD SEE RATHER STRONG HEATING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE...LEADING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP INTO MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF WI AND INTO WESTERN UPPER MI DURING THE EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS AREA SUGGEST A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES /SOME POSSIBLY STRONG/. ...KS/NEB/MO/IA... A LARGE COMPLEX OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED HEAT BURSTS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING PARTS OF OK/KS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY HAS DISRUPTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO KS. NEVERTHELESS...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG. SCATTERED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE DRY/TROUGH LINE AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE MOIST AXIS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /SUCH AS SEEN ON 12Z AMA SOUNDING/ AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LOW/DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AFTER 21Z WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR MCS DURING THE EVENING AND ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KS AND SOUTHEAST NEB...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MO AND SOUTHWEST IA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FROM THE OK PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST TX...FULL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS AXIS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR NEAR THE DRYLINE BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER DARK. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. ..HART/GRAMS.. Let's start off with a (hopefully) easy one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 I'll give it a shot... 06/01/2013. Great game BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 May 25, 2008? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 May 4, 2007? Great game, by the way - probably not a great guess, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 5, 2013 Author Share Posted July 5, 2013 May 25, 2008? Correct! Although I could've sworn you originally had the 24th, which is why I waited so long. EF-5 hits Parkersburg, IA. Next one coming up early Friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 5, 2013 Author Share Posted July 5, 2013 Next one! MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ____ NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CDT ___ ___ __ _____ AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL SD AND ND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID __1851Z - __2015Z A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WRN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY MID AFTERNOON. AT 18Z...WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WERE LOCATED IN ERN MT AND SWRN SD...WITH A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH CONNECTING THE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. FROM THE LOW IN SRN SD...A WARM FRONT STRETCHED EWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED IN NRN ND IN REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION. THE UPDRAFT OF THIS STORM IS SITUATED AROUND 850 MB AND GIVEN THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS IT MOVES NEWD. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW AN UPPER WAVE AND JET MAX WILL BE MOVING NEWD FROM WY INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE FEATURES SHOULD AID IN CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN WY AND THEN SPREADING INTO THE WRN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE AIR MASS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE PRE-MENTIONED FRONTS WAS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY PLUS EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 60 KT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS. THOUGH VERY LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY NWD TOWARD THE SD/ND BORDER..WILL SUPPORT TORNADOES. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST NORTH OF WARM FRONT AND THOUGH THIS MAY LIMIT THE NWD EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER SOMEWHAT...ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO EXPECTED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. ..IMY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 May 22, 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 May 24 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 5, 2013 Author Share Posted July 5, 2013 May 22, 2010? Very good! Harder one coming up next, later on this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 Very good! Harder one coming up next, later on this afternoon. Thanks! Saw the Dakotas mentioned and immediately though of Bowdle. I've watched this video many times, though it's much sadder now after El Reno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 5, 2013 Author Share Posted July 5, 2013 I left one big clue in. Shouldn't be too bad. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ____ NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CST ___ ___ __ _____ AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND...SRN LWR MI...NW OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID __1735Z - __1930Z WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED IN TONGUE OF 60F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AS FAR NORTH AS LOWER MICHIGAN. RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS OCCURRED PAST HOUR OR SO JUST AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO PROGRESSION OF UPPER FORCING...TOWARD THE SOUTH BEND IND AREA. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...FURTHER EVOLUTION INTO SQUALL LINE APPEARS LIKELY NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT DAMAGING WINDS IN 40 TO 50 KT MEAN FLOW ENVIRONMENT. NARROW LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE FORT WAYNE IND... TOLEDO/FINDLAY OH...AND DETROIT MI AREAS BY THE 21/22Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. Think back a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 November 10th, 2002 (which eventually went nuts in OH with the F4 in Van Wert, etc.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 5, 2013 Author Share Posted July 5, 2013 November 10th, 2002. Indeed it is. Maybe the MDs are too specific... Next one coming up in about an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 11/10/02? I feel like the big hint is that SPC seems to be leaning towards inevitable evolution towards squall line while overlooking the potential ceiling if discrete supercells did develop. But then of course Van Wert happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 Dangit! I spent only 2 minutes writing my answer. Shoulda made it one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 5, 2013 Author Share Posted July 5, 2013 11/10/02? I feel like the big hint is that SPC seems to be leaning towards inevitable evolution towards squall line while overlooking the potential ceiling if discrete supercells did develop. But then of course Van Wert happened. Actually the big hint that I was thinking of is that the time was CST, not CDT, indicating it was a late-season event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 5, 2013 Author Share Posted July 5, 2013 Disclosure: I had to black out one sentence that would otherwise be a dead giveaway. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1049 AM CDT ___ ___ __ ____ VALID __1630Z - __1200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NC AND SRN VA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NC INTO THE DELMARVA/CHESAPEAKE... ...NERN NC ACROSS NC INTO VA... SITUATION BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. [omitted] ...EXTREME SHEAR PROFILES ARE IN PLACE WITH 50-60 KT SLY H5 WINDS /40-50 KT AT H85/ OVERSPREADING ESELY SFC WINDS AND A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. RESULTANT OBSERVED AND FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE QUITE LARGE AND YIELD SR-HELICITIES IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED DRY INTRUSION MOVING INTO ERN SC/CENTRAL NC/SWRN VA. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING ENEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF ENHANCED ASCENT...CLEARING/THINNING OVERCAST IS SUPPORTING MODEST HEATING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURES AT 15Z ARE ALREADY WELL INTO THE 80S FROM ERN SC INTO CENTRAL/ERN NC AND SRN VA WITH FURTHER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. NET RESULT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINEAR STRUCTURES WELL INTO THE EVENING FROM CENTRAL NC/NERN SC NORTHEASTWARD. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WHERE HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THOUGH DESTABILIZATION WILL BE SLOWER TO OCCUR AND MORE MARGINAL NWD INTO THE CHESAPEAKE/DELMARVA ...PRESENCE OF LOWER TO MID 70F DEW POINTS AND ENHANCED SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES MAY SPREAD INTO THIS AREA AS WELL. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA WITHIN PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ELEVATED ABOVE A RELATIVELY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER...THROUGH THE MID MORNING OVER ERN KS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO WEAKENING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CAPPING LIKELY SUPPRESSING DIURNAL STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AS LLJ INCREASES AFTER DARK...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO FAR ERN KS/WRN MO AFTER 06Z. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 Ummm....guess but 9/17/04? (Evans and Crosbie don't work at SPC anymore and there haven't been a ton of mods in the Carolinas/VA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 5, 2013 Author Share Posted July 5, 2013 Ummm....guess but 9/17/04? (Evans and Crosbie don't work at SPC anymore and there haven't been a ton of mods in the Carolinas/VA) You're good, my friend. It would help if you knew the omitted sentence was: REMNANTS OF IVAN WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NEWD INTO CENTRAL VA BY TONIGHT. EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 5, 2013 Author Share Posted July 5, 2013 Just a thought...would it be more fun if whoever gets it right posts the next one? Or should I keep doing them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 6, 2013 Author Share Posted July 6, 2013 One more for now... URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER ___ NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 345 PM CDT ___ ___ __ ____ THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROKEN BOW NEBRASKA TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF OMAHA NEBRASKA. REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW ___...WW ___...WW ___...WW ___... DISCUSSION...VERY POTENT SITUATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/IA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN. EXTREME INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE OVER WATCH AREA...AND SHOULD LEAD TO EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL APPEAR LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AS WELL. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035. ...HART No more give-aways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 5/22/04? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Ummm....guess but 9/17/04? (Evans and Crosbie don't work at SPC anymore and there haven't been a ton of mods in the Carolinas/VA) Damn, you're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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