jburns Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I have to say...your sig is hilirious!!!! Thanks. I tend to have a weird sense of humor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Robert: This one is in your hands brother! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 18z GFS ens mean, south of the 12z mean, and not even close to the 18z op run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I have a hard time understanding how we are to get a major snowstorm from a low that tracks right over us. The UKMET looks like the only model showing major snow for the SE outside of the mountains. This doesn't look to be a storm that digs and goes across the gulf building steam as it goes. I really don't want a major ice storm. Is that even on the table? I know there is talk of a High pressure being able to funnel down more cold air. By the way, did anyone see the EURO ensembles? The past few runs most of the ensembles have been further south of the operational but I haven't heard about the afternoon run. If they are further south then they would be more in line with the UKMET. I guess I'll have another week hanging on every model run. Who's with me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 God, that fat man is going to get stranded at my house again. Last time he drank all my liquor and hit on the wife for 3 straight days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 WeatherNC, Looking at the GFS you posted, is that a phased storm at that point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 18z GFS ens mean, south of the 12z mean, and not even close to the 18z op run... Without looking at the text output, that seems to signal an ice to snow situation here in the northern Piedmont. That could be nasty on Christmas. Got a nice 1038mb high in the Midwest. Next panel: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Without looking at the text output, that seems to signal an ice to snow situation here in the northern Piedmont. That could be nasty on Christmas. Got a nice 1038mb high in the Midwest. It's Christmas...we got no place to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 I have a hard time understanding how we are to get a major snowstorm from a low that tracks right over us. The UKMET looks like the only model showing major snow for the SE outside of the mountains. This doesn't look to be a storm that digs and goes across the gulf building steam as it goes. I really don't want a major ice storm. Is that even on the table? I know there is talk of a High pressure being able to funnel down more cold air. By the way, did anyone see the EURO ensembles? The past few runs most of the ensembles have been further south of the operational but I haven't heard about the afternoon run. If they are further south then they would be more in line with the UKMET. I guess I'll have another week hanging on every model run. Who's with me? I'll be right there with you. Like you said, we won't get a major widespread SE snowstorm from a low that tracks right over us. But it hasn't tracked anywhere yet, so we're still in good shape. How many times have you seen a low progged to take the perfect track 6 days out, only to end up screwing everyone? I'm fine not being in the bulls eye right now, and there's enough variance in the modeling to leave virtually any possibility on the table at this point. Like I said before, we're not in bad shape for 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Yeah, but most have been through this enough to know they'd sure prefer to see this thing tracking over SC or Ga, right now as they "generally" trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'd prefer the low to track as south as possible to give just about everyone in the SE a White Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 A track like this is generally a mixed bag if there is a wedge. We really need that HP over the Dakotas to slide in a little sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I would like to call the 18z run garbage....but I can see why it takes our storm north. The 50/50 blocking starts out looking better that the 12z run only to high-tail it northeast as the storm is begining to take shape. This opens up a weakness...... and our storm cuts north. Question is......... will that happen?? While it is quite plausible, I am not buying it yet. On to the 0z run.....By the way, the cold following the storm looks like it means business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 As others have stated, this one definitely does have potential. All sort of possibilities here. Will be interesting to follow this one this week, and since it is on Christmas, it makes the potential really neat. As for bringing this one home, I am going to make it Robert's personal responsibility to reel this one in.....Get out the 30lb test and make it happen. +1 lol this is all on Robert if we don't get the then off to the squad he goes as a sacrifice to the NINA. Robert: This one is in your hands brother! Whoever starts the thread is the one to bring it in, and that wasn't me Its too far out to speculate which is why I wouldn't get too far ahead and get hopes up yet. One thing going for it is the strong blocking, the ability of things coming into Cali. to stay far south, and the cold air ability to overperform lately or atleast be in a close by position. The front late Tuesday and Wednesday could bring in enough dry and cold, and have HP to the north, so the next question will be how far south the southern California system takes. If it takes a further south track than shown, then that would mean its' phasing with the northern stream might happen too late, and get "shunted" a little to the south, meaning light precip for the Southeast and Tenn. Valley, but probably a colder solution so that would possibly be light mix or snow, depending where you are. But if it is like the vast majority of the 12z runs, then the phasing is occurring right on top, so the Euro solution looks ok to me, but there's room for it to trend north more so than progged. Honestly , most years this type of event would trend a lot north of whats being shown right now. The block though has changed things, so its hard to say. Be thankful the block is there and we're in a very strange, continuously cold pattern, because if it were any other pattern, that Cal. system would probably be straight through the Ohio Valley and/or a Lakes cutter. I wouldnt' be surprised to see this ramp up stronger and more phased right over the Tenn. Valley which would mean more warm advection in NC, but with it going and developing further south on Saturday, meaning a changeover east of the mountains.. But its all just guesswork yet. There's a lot of good potential with this, more than shown I thnk, but also lot of bad potential , meaning it could go furthern north, even in the face of the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Everybody relax. It's guaranteed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Whoever starts the thread is the one to bring it in, and that wasn't me Its too far out to speculate which is why I wouldn't get too far ahead and get hopes up yet. One thing going for it is the strong blocking, the ability of things coming into Cali. to stay far south, and the cold air ability to overperform lately or atleast be in a close by position. The front late Tuesday and Wednesday could bring in enough dry and cold, and have HP to the north, so the next question will be how far south the southern California system takes. If it takes a further south track than shown, then that would mean its' phasing with the northern stream might happen too late, and get "shunted" a little to the south, meaning light precip for the Southeast and Tenn. Valley, but probably a colder solution so that would possibly be light mix or snow, depending where you are. But if it is like the vast majority of the 12z runs, then the phasing is occurring right on top, so the Euro solution looks ok to me, but there's room for it to trend north more so than progged. Honestly , most years this type of event would trend a lot north of whats being shown right now. The block though has changed things, so its hard to say. Be thankful the block is there and we're in a very strange, continuously cold pattern, because if it were any other pattern, that Cal. system would probably be straight through the Ohio Valley and/or a Lakes cutter. I wouldnt' be surprised to see this ramp up stronger and more phased right over the Tenn. Valley which would mean more warm advection in NC, but with it going and developing further south on Saturday, meaning a changeover east of the mountains.. But its all just guesswork yet. There's a lot of good potential with this, more than shown I thnk, but also lot of bad potential , meaning it could go furthern north, even in the face of the blocking. Thanks for the update Robert! Keep the Grinch away Brotha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Everybody relax. It's guaranteed cold rain! Well, I guess freezing rain really is cold rain until it makes contact with the surface, so maybe we can still have an ice storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Well, I guess freezing rain really is cold rain until it makes contact with the surface, so maybe we can still have an ice storm! I'll pass on that. A cold dark Christmas is not in my plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Everybody relax. It's guaranteed! put your money where your mouth is? Whats at stake? Self ban for 60 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 put your money where your mouth is? Whats at stake? Self ban for 60 days? I hate to lose a good poster. How about just having ncjoaquin is the greatest in his signature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Great disco folks! Trying far hard not to get worked up about this system. But after a few days of tracking that last SOB, I am jonesing for another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Trying to ignore this one until Tues as the models are sure to run good and bad runs for us as this all comes together. If the storm si still on the models on Tues I will start getting interested, luckily I have the next couple of days off and plan to spend them in the woods hunting away from the PC and the models...... I fear by Friday some folks up here might end up drooling and repeating "but the 18Z GFS nailed us at 120 hrs" over and over and over again as the guys in white jackets haul em off to their padded room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 As others have stated, this one definitely does have potential. All sort of possibilities here. Will be interesting to follow this one this week, and since it is on Christmas, it makes the potential really neat. As for bringing this one home, I am going to make it Robert's personal responsibility to reel this one in.....Get out the 30lb test and make it happen. I got the 100 lb test AND 180 pound Marlin wire, with 3 - Ultra 4 X extra strong/ Sharp Eagle claw Treble hooks,K-Mackral rig & Anchor hooked into this one to bring it on South, believe ME!.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'll pass on that. A cold dark Christmas is not in my plans. Agree with burns here. Lazy glazey is fine by me, but disastrous and dark?...No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Well, I guess freezing rain really is cold rain until it makes contact with the surface, so maybe we can still have an ice storm! Haha! Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 put your money where your mouth is? Whats at stake? Self ban for 60 days? C'mon. Don't act like a mid-Atlantic poster. J/K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 I hate to lose a good poster. How about just having ncjoaquin is the greatest in his signature? Terms accepted. Well, I guess we should define the terms first. If X doesn't happen, then "ncjoaquin is the greatest" will go in my sig for the rest of the Winter. You define X.....fairly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 JFYI, even with the euro sfc track, 2m temps are below 0c for most of NC through the storm except the southern portion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I would like to call the 18z run garbage....but I can see why it takes our storm north. The 50/50 blocking starts out looking better that the 12z run only to high-tail it northeast as the storm is begining to take shape. This opens up a weakness...... and our storm cuts north. Question is......... will that happen?? While it is quite plausible, I am not buying it yet. On to the 0z run.....By the way, the cold following the storm looks like it means business A student met over on the accu forum last night predicted this very thing. The 50/50 was definitely going to weaken this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The 0z NAM is running... Let the fun of the 0z models begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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