Weather Czar Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The Ukie is really far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 this should be a red flag to everyone because the ukie is normally the most phased is it not? as well as the jma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 the 12Z Euro has light snow beginning around dark Christmas eve night in the northern Mtns and spreads across I-40 and north for north central NC overnight, with a low on the other side of the Apps. The 2M temps are mid 30s in CLT and southern NC with cold rain but with a little bit of damming that could be colder and mix or icy somewhere nearby. This is a 5.5 day prog, but it does have a snowy Christmas eve in parts of NC, so you can't beat that. At 144hr the low is jumping the Apps and redeveloping in the Piedmont of SC or so, with moisture plentiful in the Carolinas and temps dropping rapidly so a transition to snow over the western Carolinas for many on Christmas morning. By midday its deepening over eastern NC and goes up the coast, with snow wraparound and the Upper Low dynamics crossing the state would probably be a nice big of snow for many in the Carolinas and northern Ga.and eastern Tn. Still plenty of time to watch this, but its nice to see a slight south trend. If it trended a little more south yet, it would get more folks in the front end snow, meaning a snowstorm throughout. On Christmas, which would be practically unbelivable in some places outside the mountains, where snow is so rare anytime. From what I'm reading, this sounds like a step in the right direction from the 12z Euro solution. We just need to continue that southward trend, as you stated. Course, we've all been down that road just recently, so there will be bumps along the way lol. This is beginning to have a deja vu kind of feeling regarding our recent event when it was predicted a while back by the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 From what I'm reading, this sounds like a step in the right direction from the 12z Euro solution. We just need to continue that southward trend, as you stated. Course, we've all been down that road just recently, so there will be bumps along the way lol. This is beginning to have a deja vu kind of feeling regarding our recent event when it was predicted a while back by the Euro. the euro had already lost the storm ots by now for WNC for the last threat around day 6 or 7. with all of the consistency out of all models for a storm. i think the question is when does it phase which will determine the outcome whether its rain or snow. right now for nw nc through north central nc the euro is a nice hit. if we see a south trend the next few days it would be a bigger hit for more of the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Yep...lots of times the GFS will morph two or more of the fantasys at this long range into one real storm. Climo is right for us. Just have to wait and see if the cold reloads, or if it is a transition into a warmer period in Jan. I'm betting on continued cold. To bad what is good for N.C. is most often cold rain for us. I'd be more interested in Christmas if the energy was south of you and me. Warm sun out..46,48 ,and 49 at near 3pm. T Ah, now, Christmas is interesting even without snow. Seriously, I've noticed that James Spann has backed off his extreme warm up prediction for January. Maybe the -AO/-NAO can hold on into Jan/Feb? Would make for equal chances for normal temps hopefully and at least give us a chance at something frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Just watched JB's BIG DOG - Anyone remember the Christmas 1969 storm ? I think I heard it was white around here. And Christmas 2002 storm ? JB thinks this storm should be a blend between the two . Whatever that's means in sensible weather here ? Christmas 2002 was a warm rainstorm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Well my local forecast from NWS does mention snow for Christmas THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. .FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SLEET AND RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. .FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. .CHRISTMAS DAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. .SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 10 ABOVE IN THE MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 this should be a red flag to everyone because the ukie is normally the most phased is it not? as well as the jma? The ukie has the highest verification/ accuracy score when compared to other models, particulary the gfs in regards to phased storms. Someone posted the chart done from a study.in our last thread for the wekend event. I also heard this news as well several times last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 We will see if it does come farther south if the I-40 snow wall holds or if I manage flakes down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 As others have stated, this one definitely does have potential. All sort of possibilities here. Will be interesting to follow this one this week, and since it is on Christmas, it makes the potential really neat. As for bringing this one home, I am going to make it Robert's personal responsibility to reel this one in.....Get out the 30lb test and make it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Considering I'll be in S. Illinois for Christmas I'm pretty certain the SE will score a big one out of this. As the wave moves across STL and Illinois Thursday-Friday I'll go outside and blow really hard to try and move it a little more south for you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 As others have stated, this one definitely does have potential. All sort of possibilities here. Will be interesting to follow this one this week, and since it is on Christmas, it makes the potential really neat. As for bringing this one home, I am going to make it Robert's personal responsibility to reel this one in.....Get out the 30lb test and make it happen. LOL. Good one Matthew! Yes, I agree with Matthew Robert. This is YOUR BABY!! Disect this one for all its worth. Oh...I have 100lb test if you need some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 It would be really neat to see some flakes fly on Christmas Day.. or Christmas Eve for that matter. Still a ways out, but like others have said it definitely bears watching! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Well my local forecast from NWS does mention snow for Christmas THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. .FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SLEET AND RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. .FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. .CHRISTMAS DAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. .SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 10 ABOVE IN THE MORNING. RAL has rain and 47 for here on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Just saw the Euro and it looked good. If the Euro is right, temps won't be too much of a problem it would be a similar setup like this weekend but with more moisture to work with as far as I could tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 RAL has rain and 47 for here on Christmas. But their AFD introduces the possibility of snow while acknowledging the overall uncertainty of the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Just saw the Euro and it looked good. If the Euro is right, temps won't be too much of a problem it would be a similar setup like this weekend but with more moisture to work with as far as I could tell. Wouldn't it be a problem temp wise for areas further south of you though? I'm hoping it tracks further south this time to get more folks involved in it in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 As others have stated, this one definitely does have potential. All sort of possibilities here. Will be interesting to follow this one this week, and since it is on Christmas, it makes the potential really neat. As for bringing this one home, I am going to make it Robert's personal responsibility to reel this one in.....Get out the 30lb test and make it happen. +1 lol this is all on Robert if we don't get the then off to the squad he goes as a sacrifice to the NINA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Wouldn't it be a problem temp wise for areas further south of you though? I'm hoping it tracks further south this time to get more folks involved in it in the SE. Yes, it could be a problem for us in CLT verbatim as Robert pointed out. CLT north would certainly be in the fail zone for sure. We'll just keep praying for a more southern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Wouldn't it be a problem temp wise for areas further south of you though? I'm hoping it tracks further south this time to get more folks involved in it in the SE. EDIT....burger answered...lol CAE.... Christmas Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 51. Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 lolz 18z is sending it to Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 EDIT....burger answered...lol CAE.... Christmas Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 51. Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 51. If we are lucky we'll get 33 and rain here! YEA!!!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 lolz 18z is sending it to Ohio. No love from the 18Z Dgex either. Fortunately Rule #3 precludes me from worrying too much about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 No love from the 18Z Dgex either. Fortunately Rule #3 precludes me from worrying too much about it. Looked ok for the Mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Looked ok for the Mtns How about the foothills, Czar man ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 How about the foothills, Czar man ? Looks like your flirting with mixing most of the time. It's still far out, The solution will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Bing says it best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 But their AFD introduces the possibility of snow while acknowledging the overall uncertainty of the situation. True. Of course there is a good chance their PM 12/24 AFD will do the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Considering I'll be in S. Illinois for Christmas I'm pretty certain the SE will score a big one out of this. As the wave moves across STL and Illinois Thursday-Friday I'll go outside and blow really hard to try and move it a little more south for you guys Please be sure and chew a breath mint before you do that, peferably 'winter fresh' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 True. Of course there is a good chance their PM 12/24 AFD will do the same thing. I have to say...your sig is hilirious!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.