eyewall Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Beautiful scenes......... here's to another one this year. Thank you and I hope so! I am not overly optimistic but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 12z gfs would give frosty a couple inches of snow. Real close call. Cad if your 50/50 would have held its ground, then this would have put alot people in the 1-3 inch. 850 hangs tough along northern tier NC counties, then gets everyone with some very light backlash possibly. Good to see the gfs operational come south & in line with it's 0z ensemble. Just one of many runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Not too bad on the models today from what i've seen. A long way to go as many have said. One thing i did see that surprised me is the -NAO forecast to re-strengthen into the first week of January. Wow is this thing ever gonna give up? Dam I dread seeing the next 2 gas bills! And no snow to show for it! It's gotta line up right with all this cold air sooner or a little later, right? C'mon Ma Nature the SE is dying for you to bury us, we're prepared to deal with a paralyzing snowstorm!! Now it's football time-tied for first in fantasy and it's our final week and my by Aaron Rogers is out!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I honestly see nothing good about the 12z GFS run. Looks to me like another cold air chase scenario on the back end. That damn PAC low is shafting us and the pattern just doesn't amplify nearly enough. Phasing occurs over IL and IN with shortwaves from the upper midwest and another coming out of CO. This is all just too far north. When all of a sudden done it is a nice hit for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I honestly see nothing good about the 12z GFS run. Looks to me like another cold air chase scenario on the back end. That damn PAC low is shafting us and the pattern just doesn't amplify nearly enough. Phasing occurs over IL and IN with shortwaves from the upper midwest and another coming out of CO. This is all just too far north. When all of a sudden done it is a nice hit for New England. The Pacific is so damn close to being decent, but that GOA low keeps popping in to visit the PacNW, which keeps things to far east for us to get anything good. If that low would settle southwest in the NW Pacific, we'd be in business, easy. Maybe in January that'll happen and we can finally get a real snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Not too bad on the models today from what i've seen. A long way to go as many have said. One thing i did see that surprised me is the -NAO forecast to re-strengthen into the first week of January. Wow is this thing ever gonna give up? Dam I dread seeing the next 2 gas bills! And no snow to show for it! It's gotta line up right with all this cold air sooner or a little later, right? C'mon Ma Nature the SE is dying for you to bury us, we're prepared to deal with a paralyzing snowstorm!! Now it's football time-tied for first in fantasy and it's our final week and my by Aaron Rogers is out!! That is surprising to me. I just hope it doesn't imply a torch during prime climo time. I honestly thought we might torch for New Years but if the NAO has anything to say about it that may not occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The Pacific is so damn close to being decent, but that GOA low keeps popping in to visit the PacNW, which keeps things to far east for us to get anything good. If that low would settle southwest in the NW Pacific, we'd be in business, easy. Maybe in January that'll happen and we can finally get a real snowstorm. Widre, I gotta say...this positive attitude of yours is surely a sign. It really must be gonna snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 What's impressive to me is that all of the models have this storm and in the same general time frame, 6 days + out. And they're all fairly consistent with their track and placement. The signal is there for a storm. We can gripe about the modeled track from seven days out all day long, but it's not too far away from being something good. We're not talking about a Lakes Cutter or a storm suppressed down to the FL Keys. We're talking about a storm that is modeled by virtually every long range model to occur and track just a little bit too far north....from 6 days out! We've finally got a nice HP in a decent spot, the Pacific isn't great, but it's not as bad as it gets, the 50/50 low isn't perfect....yet, and all models show the storm (plus the 12Z CMC came south a little bit). Surely timing of phasing, fast E/W flow, orientation of HP will all play a role, but 6 days out, we're really not in that bad a shape. If every model still has the storm north by Wed., then we can probably throw in the towel, but there are a lot of things that can change for the better....or worse. Give it time, and enjoy the fact that there's something to track, rather than having nothing at all like so many previous Winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 This is looking like it has the potential to be a nasty ice storm for those south of the 850mb line with that HP in the Midwest. 1036mb high on the 12z GFS op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 This is looking like it has the potential to be a nasty ice storm for those south of the 850mb line with that HP in the Midwest. 1036mb high on the 12z GFS op. My thoughts exactly for the CAD areas of NC. Not sure how much qpf there will be. Anyone have Euro precip for the southeast? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 sounds like a cold rain on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Has anybody seen what the Euro does after 168hrs? I can't find a working link to show the 00z run or the 12z run past 168hours. It looks like that wave coming onto the coast of California at 168hrs could get interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 sounds like a cold rain on the way the 850's off the euro day 5 and day 6 never get higher than +1 from immediate triad back up to frosty. In fact Frosty hardly gets above 0. The euro 12 z says ice is more likely for you then cold rain or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 There is my New Years storm again. It needs to stay cold and need some blocking, but I think that is a good time frame for a storm. 40 here. The fog has burned off. Got 1/2 inch of cool rain. T I'm paying more attention to this one around 12/28 also. Looks like a better scenario for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 the 850's off the euro day 5 and day 6 never get higher than +1 from immediate triad back up to frosty. In fact Frosty hardly gets above 0. The euro 12 z says ice is more likely for you then cold rain or snow. If I read the euro correctly, I get .28 qpf with 850 and 2mm temps at or below freezing ? So not much QPF with the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 the 850's off the euro day 5 and day 6 never get higher than +1 from immediate triad back up to frosty. In fact Frosty hardly gets above 0. The euro 12 z says ice is more likely for you then cold rain or snow. I am just saying models not accurate lately. I believe when i gets closer the temperatures will not be in our favor. As much as I love winter precep I don't want to be plowing on Christmas Day. Unless we have a good set up I am not getting excited over this track. Looks like North of us wins on this storm. Even Frosty don't like cold rains. after seeing what the models did with this last one I don't think they can be taken serious until very late in the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 12z ECMWF at day 6 and 7 from Plymouth... Interesting that on day 7 there is a slug of 700mb RH through central NC with 850's below 0, not sure if any of that is reflected at the surface. SLP tracks through VA, from extreme western VA on day 6 to off the Delmarva at day 7. We are going to need a sig southward trend to have a chance with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 We are looking good for Northern Va as a plowable event. I hate that it will be eve and Christmas and the day after! But you make hay while the Sun Shines.. Jason your welcome to comr play up north.. I am just saying models not accurate lately. I believe when i gets closer the temperatures will not be in our favor. As much as I love winter precep I don't want to be plowing on Christmas Day. Unless we have a good set up I am not getting excited over this track. Looks like North of us wins on this storm. Even Frosty don't like cold rains. after seeing what the models did with this last one I don't think they can be taken serious until very late in the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 12z ECMWF at day 6 and 7 from Plymouth... Interesting that on day 7 there is a slug of 700mb RH through central NC with 850's below 0, not sure if any of that is reflected at the surface. SLP tracks through VA, from extreme western VA on day 6 to off the Delmarva at day 7. We are going to need a sig southward trend to have a chance with this one. And I would say chances for a south trend is slim to none ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Just watched JB's BIG DOG - Anyone remember the Christmas 1969 storm ? I think I heard it was white around here. And Christmas 2002 storm ? JB thinks this storm should be a blend between the two . Whatever that's means in sensible weather here ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'm paying more attention to this one around 12/28 also. Looks like a better scenario for me. Yep...lots of times the GFS will morph two or more of the fantasys at this long range into one real storm. Climo is right for us. Just have to wait and see if the cold reloads, or if it is a transition into a warmer period in Jan. I'm betting on continued cold. To bad what is good for N.C. is most often cold rain for us. I'd be more interested in Christmas if the energy was south of you and me. Warm sun out..46,48 ,and 49 at near 3pm. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Christmas of 1969 remember it well!! Poss snow flurries that turned into 27 inches on the ground in Troy NY.. Just watched JB's BIG DOG - Anyone remember the Christmas 1969 storm ? I think I heard it was white around here. And Christmas 2002 storm ? JB thinks this storm should be a blend between the two . Whatever that's means in sensible weather here ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Just watched JB's BIG DOG - Anyone remember the Christmas 1969 storm ? I think I heard it was white around here. And Christmas 2002 storm ? JB thinks this storm should be a blend between the two . Whatever that's means in sensible weather here ? Well, there was 9.4 inches of snow downtown Christmas 1969 and a trace in 2002, so I will look forward to my 4.7 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 the 12Z Euro has light snow beginning around dark Christmas eve night in the northern Mtns and spreads across I-40 and north for north central NC overnight, with a low on the other side of the Apps. The 2M temps are mid 30s in CLT and southern NC with cold rain but with a little bit of damming that could be colder and mix or icy somewhere nearby. This is a 5.5 day prog, but it does have a snowy Christmas eve in parts of NC, so you can't beat that. At 144hr the low is jumping the Apps and redeveloping in the Piedmont of SC or so, with moisture plentiful in the Carolinas and temps dropping rapidly so a transition to snow over the western Carolinas for many on Christmas morning. By midday its deepening over eastern NC and goes up the coast, with snow wraparound and the Upper Low dynamics crossing the state would probably be a nice big of snow for many in the Carolinas and northern Ga.and eastern Tn. Still plenty of time to watch this, but its nice to see a slight south trend. If it trended a little more south yet, it would get more folks in the front end snow, meaning a snowstorm throughout. On Christmas, which would be practically unbelivable in some places outside the mountains, where snow is so rare anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 Ukie looks to remain south with a track just south of TN and through SC. Still plenty of options for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Foothills, you thinking snow in eastern and central Carolina also? I was thinking of heading to Va. but based on your comments ? I need to be home and yes it's still 140 plus out I understand that... the 12Z Euro has light snow beginning around dark Christmas eve night in the northern Mtns and spreads across I-40 and north for north central NC overnight, with a low on the other side of the Apps. The 2M temps are mid 30s in CLT and southern NC with cold rain but with a little bit of damming that could be colder and mix or icy somewhere nearby. This is a 5.5 day prog, but it does have a snowy Christmas eve in parts of NC, so you can't beat that. At 144hr the low is jumping the Apps and redeveloping in the Piedmont of SC or so, with moisture plentiful in the Carolinas and temps dropping rapidly so a transition to snow over the western Carolinas for many on Christmas morning. By midday its deepening over eastern NC and goes up the coast, with snow wraparound and the Upper Low dynamics crossing the state would probably be a nice big of snow for many in the Carolinas and northern Ga.and eastern Tn. Still plenty of time to watch this, but its nice to see a slight south trend. If it trended a little more south yet, it would get more folks in the front end snow, meaning a snowstorm throughout. On Christmas, which would be practically unbelivable in some places outside the mountains, where snow is so rare anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 When you are discussing individual model runs, could you also post the map you are referring to. Unless it is a pay site! This will help folks out. Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Foothills, you thinking snow in eastern and central Carolina also? I was thinking of heading to Va. but based on your comments ? I need to be home and yes it's still 140 plus out I understand that... this storm isn't etched in stone yet, the options are plenty. Could phase just north of us, or on us, or just south of us, or just west of us. I'd think just south of us or On us would be better, both would crash heights over NC and bring the cold air in while the precip is just started. Verbatim, its all snow in NW and n Central NC and most of the mtns just north of AVL, and that cold air works through western NC overnight and morning with precip steady as the dynamics jump the mtns to near CLT by morning. During the day, it develops over NC and goes up the coast, with so much energy sweeping over NC during early Christmas morning, that would be wringing out snow showers all over the Carolinas esp. from CAE north. This is the op. ECMWF. The GFS is close to this but a hair north overall. The trick is going to be where the northern stream phases with it (or not) and how it pushes the initial low or captures it west of the Apps. I'd like to see another trend south, but we don't know yet until the system gets onshore in California. Who knows this could end up being much further north than shown, or even further south. This could trend so many ways I wouldn't count on any snow yet, but just keep watching the trends. I guess we'll know in a few days unless the models keep your area right on the line until the storm arrives, but I think it will trend solidly in one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 When you are discussing individual model runs, could you also post the map you are referring to. Unless it is a pay site! This will help folks out. Thanks!! I can't post the JMA (pay site) but it has light QPF over most of NC and 850 temps below 0 over most of NC and even N GA and norther SC. It would be a nice light snow for most on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 12z UKMET at 144, this would probably be a best case scenario as far as track for the SE as a whole... and it has support from the 12z JMA at said time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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