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Christmas Storm

Cold Rain

By Cold Rain,
in Southeastern States

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

For the Triad where we stand in model world at the moment

0z Euro looks like Mix/Ice to snow as low exits off coast. Been this way since 12z yesterday

0z gfs ensembles look the best, probably all snow/ possibly some sleet issues my area

0z operational GFS = Dung

0z UKmet looks good, but thats the last frame posted above, definetly would be snow on backside on that frame, not sure what path it travels across the Carolinas on Sat on that model. Honestly right now strong consensus that a storm comes across TNor North AL/MS Friday into Saturday. The only model that has a different track is the Operational GFS, which has it up in WVA(NORTH)

Hopefully this consensus will hold serve and if its still going by Tuesday night/ Wednesday morning then its time to start barking. Like the met said on wxii this is the best hope weve had for a white Christmas storm in a long time. Love to see this storm come across central AL/MS and get everyone on this board in the game.

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted

Look at the position of the North Atlantic low. It's located too far North and east from the 50.50 spot. If we are going to get a decent snow out of this, that low has to retrograde........ In my opinion, this will be the most important feature to watch as the week unfolds. Looking at the 06z at 120h we see our low in central OK. We need that low to be in southeast TX. Lot's of changes will have to happen before we can get excited about this one. However, I am glad that we have a storm to track especially for Christmas.

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted

Here's your NON- White Christmas storm from JB this morning :thumbsdown: It's going to be well north of us snow that is.

The storm will dump heavy amounts in the plains and midwest. right now, I think if you take the I -70 corridor on the south and the I-80 corridor on the north, you have the axis of heaviest snow with this in the Thursday night-Sunday morning period, from the plains east, until the Appalachians. Then it looks like it switches to I-81, I 95 from northern va eastward. Its tempting to say, well look at this one and how it fell apart. True. But its also the idea the pattern will be more ripe for this, and unlike this storm which never got going to the west at all, this one should be showing its hand by Friday morning with major disruptive snows in the midwest and Ohio valley breaking out

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

Here's your NON- White Christmas storm from JB this morning :thumbsdown: It's going to be well north of us snow that is.

The storm will dump heavy amounts in the plains and midwest. right now, I think if you take the I -70 corridor on the south and the I-80 corridor on the north, you have the axis of heaviest snow with this in the Thursday night-Sunday morning period, from the plains east, until the Appalachians. Then it looks like it switches to I-81, I 95 from northern va eastward. Its tempting to say, well look at this one and how it fell apart. True. But its also the idea the pattern will be more ripe for this, and unlike this storm which never got going to the west at all, this one should be showing its hand by Friday morning with major disruptive snows in the midwest and Ohio valley breaking out

Take his specifics with a grain of salt. I am still looking for the TN Valley snows from his latest busted storm prediction. In fact, I have never seen him be right on a storm for the southern apps in the 5 years of following him. He's pretty good with pattern recognition, but to follow his or ANYONES specifics from a week out is not the wisest thing to do. IMHO

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted

Take his specifics with a grain of salt. I am still looking for the TN Valley snows from his latest busted storm prediction. In fact, I have never seen him be right on a storm for the southern apps in the 5 years of following him. He's pretty good with pattern recognition, but to follow his or ANYONES specifics from a week out is not the wisest thing to do. IMHO

Oh, I agree on the specifics this far out. I'm just showing what he said ! I'm not taking what he says on specifics as the gospel. I don't think that would be wise either !!! He thinks the slp tracks to our north, So if thats right then we know it's rain or possibly ICE here.

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

I wish this system was not modeled to hit on Christmas. With it being on that day alone tell me it will not happen.

Hoping it will but snow on Christmas is hard to come by in the south (outside the mountains)

Right now, I'm loving the odds that KCLT has it's 63rd consecutive non-white Christmas.

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weatherheels

weatherheels

Posted
Posted

Right now, I'm loving the odds that KCLT has it's 63rd consecutive non-white Christmas.

I'm with you on that. As long as we have this flat flow and no parent high to our N I can't get excited. I don't even think we get icey because the slp will probably track through VA or N. NC which will clearly warm us all up in the SE too much for anything wintry. Oh well, hopefully the slp ends up tracking through SC and we get a reliable cold air source that isnt gonna get shoved out of the way.

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jlewis1111

jlewis1111

Posted
Posted

I'm with you on that. As long as we have this flat flow and no parent high to our N I can't get excited. I don't even think we get icey because the slp will probably track through VA or N. NC which will clearly warm us all up in the SE too much for anything wintry. Oh well, hopefully the slp ends up tracking through SC and we get a reliable cold air source that isnt gonna get shoved out of the way.

Very possible

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Isopycnic

Isopycnic

Posted
Posted

My last white christmas was in the late 90's. There was a dusting across Lee, Chatham and Orange co's early morning. Also for a few years on either side of christmas day in the late 90's we had sleet or freezing rain events. One was so bad in 1998(?) that relatives were stuck at home in Winston Salem and we had 1/2" of ice/sleet in central Orangte co.

I never saw anything icy in December from 1983 - 1997(?) What ever happened to snowless Decembers. I would happly trade for a warmer december for snowy Marches. We used to get 14'+ snows here. Not since the late 90's.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

My last white christmas was in the late 90's. There was a dusting across Lee, Chatham and Orange co's early morning. Also for a few years on either side of christmas day in the late 90's we had sleet or freezing rain events. One was so bad in 1998(?) that relatives were stuck at home in Winston Salem and we had 1/2" of ice/sleet in central Orangte co.

I never saw anything icy in December from 1983 - 1997(?) What ever happened to snowless Decembers. I would happly trade for a warmer december for snowy Marches. We used to get 14'+ snows here. Not since the late 90's.

Other than Dec 1989 when we had lots still on the ground from the Dec 22 snow, this is the closest we have come......

it started to snow at 12:30 am had it started a hr earlier I could have at least said I have seen snow fall on Xmas day even if it was almost over. Also this storm was modeled several day out but disappeared/or was so weak as to not matter on the models in the mid range it wasnt till the overnight AFD on the 24th that it came back. In fact this was the same storm that gave the south Tx coast their surprise Xmas snow, it was the overperformance of the system there that setoff the warning bells for the local NWS office.

This thing was so close if only it had been 12 hrs sooner.......:rolleyes:

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Isopycnic

Isopycnic

Posted
Posted

Other than Dec 1989 when we had lots still on the ground from the Dec 22 snow, this is the closest we have come......

it started to snow at 12:30 am had it started a hr earlier I could have at least said I have seen snow fall on Xmas day even if it was almost over. Also this storm was modeled several day out but disappeared/or was so weak as to not matter on the models in the mid range it wasnt till the overnight AFD on the 24th that it came back. In fact this was the same storm that gave the south Tx coast their surprise Xmas snow, it was the overperformance of the system there that setoff the warning bells for the local NWS office.

This thing was so close if only it had been 12 hrs sooner.......:rolleyes:

I remember that shaft.

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted

Looking forward to a cold rain on Christmas. In all seriousness I don't think this one is done. Not by a long shot.

Agree........ but, I think we all have the fear that it will trend more north as we approach the event instead of south. As I mentioned in an earlier post, the feature that has my most attention is the North Atlantic low. I am not really concerned about the high pressure to the north....I believe it will be in a favorable position and have plenty of cold air. If I had to pin down one thing that stands between rain and snow for us east of the mtns, that 50/50 low would be it

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

Here are some pics from the white christmas in 1999 in Southern Pines and Pinehurst (A surprise localized event!), This was from the pre fail zone era! The snow actuall was falling on Christmas morning! My favorite winter ever in NC so far was 1999-2000!

post-139-0-27815100-1292778442.jpg

post-139-0-94103700-1292778451.jpg

post-139-0-12615400-1292778466.jpg

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