strongwxnc Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 In my dream man! That man is ever so sweet for a lot of folks!! Great disco folks!!! Have you ever seen a DGEX map verify? Seriously just curious, I know last year it was horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Have you ever seen a DGEX map verify? Seriously just curious, I know last year it was horrible. Only time I seen it verifiy was for the Mid Atlantic area last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Have you ever seen a DGEX map verify? Seriously just curious, I know last year it was horrible. I've seen the DGEX be the first long range model to show a threat that panned out... however, i'm sure it was more by random chance more so than by model accuracy. In the long range, I like to look at all the bad models just to show me a range of potential outcomes, b/c we all know that even the "good" long range models are generally way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 I just had to save that DGEX snowfall map to see how it verifies.......... I'm not ready for weenie mode just yet, but if the models are showing something like this come Wednesday night/Thursday morning, I will not be worth a dime at work Thursday. I was thinking the exact same thing earlier. I might not be worth a dime on Wednesday either! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I've seen the DGEX and UKMET catch on the earliest on some storms in the 7 day range although the specifics weren't exact..like where the rain/snow line would be and such. But for both to show this kind of potential is noteworthy and very interesting to me. And FWIW the Dr aint too bad at this point IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 If this is the case......No problem for me. Off starting Tuesday afternoon! I was thinking the exact same thing earlier. I might not be worth a dime on Wednesday either! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 One thing that I do really, really, really, really like about this potential so far is that virtually every model has what? A very nice High Pressure of respectable potency dropping into the upper Plain states. It's trended stronger today. We may ultimately end up cold and dry, but if a lot of us are going to have the chance to be in business, we have GOT to have that feature present. That's the main reason, IMO at least, that this is probably our best 7 day out storm to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I just had to save that DGEX snowfall map to see how it verifies.......... I'm not ready for weenie mode just yet, but if the models are showing something like this come Wednesday night/Thursday morning, I will not be worth a dime at work Thursday. That map = WOW! I only have three days of work this week, and we are not going to be doing much anyway. Good thing cause if this is still on the table Monday, it looks like I'll be on here 24/7 the rest of the week. I would love a white Christmas so much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 If this is the case......No problem for me. Off starting Tuesday afternoon! I'm off for the next 9 days and then work 2 days and off for 5 more. I'm ready track and post baby! Just hope it stays positive...need the GFS to start a cooling trend for that time frame. Which model did the best in the short range on today's ordeal? I was never in the mix so didn't pay a lot of attention to it? Was the NAM garbage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Well. After sitting at 34 and rain all day I decide to look at other threads and see this one with the DGEX porn, holy smokes. Time to waste away my week before xmas tracking this bad boy, if this verified Im not sure I would be able to handle the happiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Well. After sitting at 34 and rain all day I decide to look at other threads and see this one with the DGEX porn, holy smokes. Time to waste away my week before xmas tracking this bad boy, if this verified Im not sure I would be able to handle the happiness. Yeah, I would faint if we got that much snow on Christmas. But I would be excited just to see and inch stick to the ground on Christmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I don't know if anyone noticed the individual ensemble members from 18z GFS, but most were south of the OP. This combined with the other modeling might lead you to think this still has a chance to come in even more south than currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Another thing to keep in mind folks, this monster HP crashing into the northern plains is not of Arctic origins. This is our east based -NAO coupled with the negative Arctic oscillation, and retrograding through central and southern Canada. While not a true source of cold air like we are used to, it should do the trick in funneling moderate cold down along the EC on a stiff northerly flow aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The chance for backside snow showers is interesting. For my area, the low must be much further south for anything on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Another thing to keep in mind folks, this monster HP crashing into the northern plains is not of Arctic origins. This is our east based -NAO coupled with the negative Arctic oscillation, and retrograding through central and southern Canada. While not a true source of cold air like we are used to, it should do the trick in funneling moderate cold down along the EC on a stiff northerly flow aloft. That's probably the most encouraging detail yet! Thx for your thoughts and disco WeatherNC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 That's probably the most encouraging detail yet! Thx for your thoughts and disco WeatherNC! The hp is encouraging. However, we should keep in mind that this is not an ideal setup for us. Lp coming from the west is usually tricky at best. If it were to track east through the gulf coast states (norther gom would be best) instead of coming across missouri tennessee, etc. On the other hand, I've seen numerous systems give us 2-4" events with similar setups. NAM looks awfully warm @ 84. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Just noticed your signature.....very nice...hahaha. It made my day on Friday...Thank you Have you ever seen a DGEX map verify? Seriously just curious, I know last year it was horrible. It did pretty good with the Feb storm that put down almost 9" imby But a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then too...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 No mets in here tonight? Bummer! Well, at 108, looks like 0z GFS is holding the energy back in the intermountain west, compared to 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I tell you what, that's one bad-ass 850 low over the midwest -- 3 closed contours with a 1007 surface low over Oklahoma. This run looks about 6-12 hours slower than the 18z -- not sure what that means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GFS not buying what the DGEX is selling -- 850 low over WVa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GFS not buying what the DGEX is selling -- 850 low over WVa. The GFS brings the low farther north than any other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The GFS brings the low farther north than any other model. I'd be willing to bet the ensembles are south of the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'd be willing to bet the ensembles are south of the operational. Im sure they are. We know how the GFS likes to phase storms in this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Plenty of model runs to go, hopefully this was just a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Hmmmm. I thought the GFS's bias was oversuppression? (Maybe that's only when it shows storms to our south?) Anyway, long way to go --- anything can happen. Good night, all. Im sure they are. We know how the GFS likes to phase storms in this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Hmmmm. I thought the GFS's bias was oversuppression? (Maybe that's only when it shows storms to our south?) Anyway, long way to go --- anything can happen. Good night, all. It depends on the pattern. When it suppressed storms last year with a strong STJ then yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 0z GFS ens mean, 156 and 168 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Snippet from GSP: SHALLOW L/W RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ON FRIDAY...MODELS ARE BACK TO INDICATING A DIGGING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID CONUS WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA EARLY CHRISTMAS EVE. PREFERRING THE ECMWF...THE PEAK PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SFC TEMPS...PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SN ACROSS THE MTNS AND RA ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND CAA MAY SUPPORT NW FLOW SNOW ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS STORM REMAINS LOW DUE TO MODEL RUN TO RUN CHANGES. This is perfect wording. With the pattern we are in and the run-to-run changes, this is the best approach to wording. At least they admit (based on that wording) that the cards are still on the table and this could swing either way... I am off work the next couple of weeks (except for one 1/2 day this week and a couple of days next week), so hoping that this thing stays alive, so I can track a "play by play" from all my friends here at American Southeast forum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GGEM is further north tonight also. Still a ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I am going to go out on a limb and say rain for my area . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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