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Christmas Storm


Cold Rain

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850 line runs from just south of ILM to ATL for the event, will post the porn graphic from NCEP once the 18z run is up there, but this should give the general flavor as it is going to be pretty arousing for many! :popcorn:

You're right, it was arousing...:lol:

I haven't looked at the DGEX but it must have a been a good bit south of the euro and gfs.

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I find myself feeling very much like the guy at the WSOP needing to hit a two-outer to stave off elimination.

He says, over and over again:

ONE TIME! ONE TIME! ONE TIME!

Can you imagine this subforum if something like that came to fruition? The chance that a map like that verifies is why we have this passion.

Anyway ...

ONE TIME! ONE TIME! ONE TIME!

post-382-0-74990000-1292716134.jpg

:huh:

It's a Christmas Miracle Charlie Brown!

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I've had several white Christmas days, but nothing huge. I was here and alive in 1969 when there was 9.4 inches, but I don't remember it.:sun:

Me too :wub:

It doesn't count as much as an Atl. area snow for Christmas would :) MIght be centuries before the like would occur again, if it ever does the first time.

I'm surprised Rosie never had one up there. I just thought Atl. and south was the only shutout.

I've seen flurries on Christmas day in Atl., several times...but a shut down the streets snow I wouldn't bet on, lol. I was very surprised Larry said there had been ice storms.

I'm holding more hope for a snowy New Years. Get an old front and a weak gulf low coming up into some reinforced cold air... that would be nice. T

This is my hope also..lol :hug:

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That sad thing about this winter is that we've had a record cold December, and this run of the DGEX is really the first model to even show a decent "fantasy" hit for my area. Normally at this point, the GFS has spit out at least 4 or 5 long range megastorms for the southeast.

Whatever upgrades they did to the GFS last year, it definitely took the 240hr weenie eye candy out of it.

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Nobody mentioned the 12z UKMET. At 144hrs, it looks like it's going to produce a nice overrunning snow event for us...

And that is the model to watch imo... NCEP model bias lists the following for the UK

post-382-0-91524200-1292722566.png

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.shtml

Given verification stats, the EC is king by a close margin at 500mb day 5 in the NH, but the UKMET and GFS are not to far behind.

cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX_00Z.png

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I'm just glad that it is showing some potential for Christmas Day. For myself half the fun is tracking the storm. Of course most end in disappointment but I do love tracking them. There's nothing like a model coming in showing you in the sweet spot. It's my drug!

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well from what i read and have looked at all the models are close to bringing something this way. at least there is a storm to track. hate those winters where there is nothing to even look at on the models.

The models will have way more visibility with this slp and its just a matter of pin pointing where it will exit the east coast. Pretty cut and dry west-east. If the block pushes just right, then alot of us will be in business. Block gets to overpowering then it's suppresion city, and vice versa if doent push down strong, then the storm will go north or west of us and waa will just give us rain.. Should have alot better consistency this week with this system in model land. Another old rule that use to get used is a storm system would exit the east coast at the same longitude it came in on the west coast within 3-4 days. Something to think about and test.

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I'm just glad that it is showing some potential for Christmas Day. For myself half the fun is tracking the storm. Of course most end in disappointment but I do love tracking them. There's nothing like a model coming in showing you in the sweet spot. It's my drug!

I couldn't agree more. Right or wrong, it's a winter addiction.

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I thought I was going to get some snow on Christmas night in 2005 or 2006. They were calling for 4 to 6 inches but the lp system ended up farther east than modeled and I got flurries on 12/26. One of the many disappointing storms.

I remember that. My family was up visiting from LUMBERTON, of all places. They had to leave early to beat the weather and we thought we might at least get some. Nada in CH, but a crippling ice storm on top of a couple of inches of snow for them.

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Man...I am not scoring much IMBY yet, but I have had 3 (maybe 4?) token events. Today was the best yet for my area (covered the ground white w/ a dusting). Now we have something else to track. I have a feeling I am going to be in the "dawg house" soon fellas!! Cannot wait to see the 00z models tonight. This is way far out, but like someone said earlier in this thread...tracking the potential is HALF the fun and yes...a drug!

EDIT: RDUWx stated the quote above about "half of the fun"

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I just had to save that DGEX snowfall map to see how it verifies.......... I'm not ready for weenie mode just yet, but if the models are showing something like this come Wednesday night/Thursday morning, I will not be worth a dime at work Thursday.

Have you ever seen a DGEX map verify? Seriously just curious, I know last year it was horrible.

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