rduwx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 850 line runs from just south of ILM to ATL for the event, will post the porn graphic from NCEP once the 18z run is up there, but this should give the general flavor as it is going to be pretty arousing for many! You're right, it was arousing... I haven't looked at the DGEX but it must have a been a good bit south of the euro and gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 You're right, it was arousing... I haven't looked at the DGEX but it must have a been a good bit south of the euro and gfs. It's a Christmas Miracle Charlie Brown! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 It's a Christmas Miracle Charlie Brown! That gives Cold Rain 10-12. I'm gonna have to go ahead and cash out here. It's been fun boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 It's a Christmas Miracle Charlie Brown! They made that map just for Eyewall lol....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I find myself feeling very much like the guy at the WSOP needing to hit a two-outer to stave off elimination. He says, over and over again: ONE TIME! ONE TIME! ONE TIME! Can you imagine this subforum if something like that came to fruition? The chance that a map like that verifies is why we have this passion. Anyway ... ONE TIME! ONE TIME! ONE TIME! It's a Christmas Miracle Charlie Brown! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 850 line runs from just south of ILM to ATL for the event, will post the porn graphic from NCEP once the 18z run is up there, but this should give the general flavor as it is going to be pretty arousing for many! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 850 line runs from just south of ILM to ATL for the event, will post the porn graphic from NCEP once the 18z run is up there, but this should give the general flavor as it is going to be pretty arousing for many! Hey WeatherNC I'll take just 1/2 of that! of both of those post's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Worst part about this is that tomorrow it will disappear ...then on Tuesday it will be back only for it to be suppressed to hell on Thursday. Haha we just can't help ourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 It's a Christmas Miracle Charlie Brown! LOL... Is that a clipper on roids? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 FWIW the JMA does not have much QPF anywhere but it does have the 850 freezing line running a little south of I-20 at 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I've had several white Christmas days, but nothing huge. I was here and alive in 1969 when there was 9.4 inches, but I don't remember it. Me too It doesn't count as much as an Atl. area snow for Christmas would MIght be centuries before the like would occur again, if it ever does the first time. I'm surprised Rosie never had one up there. I just thought Atl. and south was the only shutout. I've seen flurries on Christmas day in Atl., several times...but a shut down the streets snow I wouldn't bet on, lol. I was very surprised Larry said there had been ice storms. I'm holding more hope for a snowy New Years. Get an old front and a weak gulf low coming up into some reinforced cold air... that would be nice. T This is my hope also..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 18z GFS ens mean at day 6 & 7, pretty strong signal on the 7 day panel... Now if we can just get the suppression to hold, even a further south trend in the next 2-3 days would be good, as it would likely come north in the home stretch based on past experiences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 That sad thing about this winter is that we've had a record cold December, and this run of the DGEX is really the first model to even show a decent "fantasy" hit for my area. Normally at this point, the GFS has spit out at least 4 or 5 long range megastorms for the southeast. Whatever upgrades they did to the GFS last year, it definitely took the 240hr weenie eye candy out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Just noticed your signature.....very nice...hahaha. Me too This is my hope also..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 That's a nice looking model for the GFS.......'course 144/168 is out in fantasy land. What does the Euro say out that far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 That's a nice looking model for the GFS.......'course 144/168 is out in fantasy land. What does the Euro say out that far? A bit north, but in the ballpark. At least it's not 240 hrs away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Nobody mentioned the 12z UKMET. At 144hrs, it looks like it's going to produce a nice overrunning snow event for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I regard this storm with cautious optimism. It looks good now, but we'll see what happens. It's just hard to get too excited about a storm a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Nobody mentioned the 12z UKMET. At 144hrs, it looks like it's going to produce a nice overrunning snow event for us... And that is the model to watch imo... NCEP model bias lists the following for the UK http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.shtml Given verification stats, the EC is king by a close margin at 500mb day 5 in the NH, but the UKMET and GFS are not to far behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgarren Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 been out all day trying to read through the posts to see what the euro says about the christmas storm. anyone get me up to speed really quick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'm just glad that it is showing some potential for Christmas Day. For myself half the fun is tracking the storm. Of course most end in disappointment but I do love tracking them. There's nothing like a model coming in showing you in the sweet spot. It's my drug! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Me too This is my hope also..lol Class of 69! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgarren Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 well from what i read and have looked at all the models are close to bringing something this way. at least there is a storm to track. hate those winters where there is nothing to even look at on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 It's a Christmas Miracle Charlie Brown! I just had to save that DGEX snowfall map to see how it verifies.......... I'm not ready for weenie mode just yet, but if the models are showing something like this come Wednesday night/Thursday morning, I will not be worth a dime at work Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 well from what i read and have looked at all the models are close to bringing something this way. at least there is a storm to track. hate those winters where there is nothing to even look at on the models. The models will have way more visibility with this slp and its just a matter of pin pointing where it will exit the east coast. Pretty cut and dry west-east. If the block pushes just right, then alot of us will be in business. Block gets to overpowering then it's suppresion city, and vice versa if doent push down strong, then the storm will go north or west of us and waa will just give us rain.. Should have alot better consistency this week with this system in model land. Another old rule that use to get used is a storm system would exit the east coast at the same longitude it came in on the west coast within 3-4 days. Something to think about and test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'm just glad that it is showing some potential for Christmas Day. For myself half the fun is tracking the storm. Of course most end in disappointment but I do love tracking them. There's nothing like a model coming in showing you in the sweet spot. It's my drug! I couldn't agree more. Right or wrong, it's a winter addiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I thought I was going to get some snow on Christmas night in 2005 or 2006. They were calling for 4 to 6 inches but the lp system ended up farther east than modeled and I got flurries on 12/26. One of the many disappointing storms. I remember that. My family was up visiting from LUMBERTON, of all places. They had to leave early to beat the weather and we thought we might at least get some. Nada in CH, but a crippling ice storm on top of a couple of inches of snow for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Man...I am not scoring much IMBY yet, but I have had 3 (maybe 4?) token events. Today was the best yet for my area (covered the ground white w/ a dusting). Now we have something else to track. I have a feeling I am going to be in the "dawg house" soon fellas!! Cannot wait to see the 00z models tonight. This is way far out, but like someone said earlier in this thread...tracking the potential is HALF the fun and yes...a drug! EDIT: RDUWx stated the quote above about "half of the fun" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I just had to save that DGEX snowfall map to see how it verifies.......... I'm not ready for weenie mode just yet, but if the models are showing something like this come Wednesday night/Thursday morning, I will not be worth a dime at work Thursday. Have you ever seen a DGEX map verify? Seriously just curious, I know last year it was horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 would rather for it to snow Christmas Eve. It would not be fun having to plow on Christmas Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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