Christmas Storm

[Shawn]

As a rule, you're absolutely right! I imagine most of us learned to be fluent, or at least conversational, by reading and digesting here.

My concern is more pragmatic. If this system develops into a full-blown winter cavalcade, we may not be able to manage the flood of imby folks. We all know they don't mean ill, but they would be coming.

I'm just wondering if it wouldn't serve us all better to have a "kiddie pool" for them to splash in, rather than bogging down the deep end.

Forum software like this can let you create threads that only certain users have permission to post in. I think making one for Mets as we get closer to the event and it looks like reality.. would be the best idea. Then direct everyone else to a "discussion on the met thread" type deal.

[strongwxnc]

I recall talking AT LENGTH about that issue for that system.

Hate that..

We better not have to deal with that this time!

[Itunis]

As a rule, you're absolutely right! I imagine most of us learned to be fluent, or at least conversational, by reading and digesting here.

My concern is more pragmatic. If this system develops into a full-blown winter cavalcade, we may not be able to manage the flood of imby folks. We all know they don't mean ill, but they would be coming.

I'm just wondering if it wouldn't serve us all better to have a "kiddie pool" for them to splash in, rather than bogging down the deep end.

I see your point. If any mets have the time this could help unclog the disco thread, but American does have a strong "anti-weenie" policy, especially in "storm mode".

[georgiawx11]

Best of luck to everyone. It'd be nice if everyone could have a White christmas. I think the hardest part is just waiting. 5 days away seems like forever.

[fig]

ILM disco...lame

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ONFRI WILL INDUCE A SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES EAST. WARM FRONT SOUTH OFTHE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT AND IS QUICKLYFOLLOWED BY SFC LOW/COLD FRONT LATE SAT. WORTH NOTING THAT THE 12ZECMWF/CANADIAN PASS THE SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT ANDNEVER BRING THE WARM FRONT THROUGH. BOTH THE CURRENT FORECAST ANDTHE ALTERNATE SOLUTION RESULT IN PRECIP DEVELOPING SAT MORNING ANDLASTING INTO SAT NIGHT. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WOULD BE THE NATURE OFTHE PRECIP...STRATIFORM VS CONVECTIVE. NEXT ARCTIC AIR MASS STARTSTO BUILD IN SUN WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVING SUN NIGHT ORMON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW TO WELL BELOW CLIMOTHROUGH THE PERIOD.

[Cold Rain]

I recall talking AT LENGTH about that issue for that system.

Hate that..

Yeah, and if I'm not mistake, Allan has some research that he posted showing how one type of convection robs the moisture, whereas if it's configured a different way, it can actually enhance moisture transport. When all this is still on the table on Thursday, maybe someone can post that stuff. I also seem to remember that if the convection is oriented N/S, it has more of a tendency to rob moisture transport than if it's oriented E/W.

[RevDodd]

I see your point. If any mets have the time this could help unclog the disco thread, but American does have a strong "anti-weenie" policy, especially in "storm mode".

It would be tough for mets to deal with the newby stuff when in Storm Mode. Just trying to figure a viable solution before it all hits. Of course, given what would lead to the influx, it's a great problem to have!

Best of luck to everyone!

[kanc2001]

ILM disco...lame

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ONFRI WILL INDUCE A SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES EAST. WARM FRONT SOUTH OFTHE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT AND IS QUICKLYFOLLOWED BY SFC LOW/COLD FRONT LATE SAT. WORTH NOTING THAT THE 12ZECMWF/CANADIAN PASS THE SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT ANDNEVER BRING THE WARM FRONT THROUGH. BOTH THE CURRENT FORECAST ANDTHE ALTERNATE SOLUTION RESULT IN PRECIP DEVELOPING SAT MORNING ANDLASTING INTO SAT NIGHT. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WOULD BE THE NATURE OFTHE PRECIP...STRATIFORM VS CONVECTIVE. NEXT ARCTIC AIR MASS STARTSTO BUILD IN SUN WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVING SUN NIGHT ORMON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW TO WELL BELOW CLIMOTHROUGH THE PERIOD.

there are some 'hints" in there, not terrible for this far out and we know that your area will be the last to see a changover if there even is one. Ive seen people comparing this setup to Jan '88, there was some measurable snow at both ILM and Myrtle for that event. Luckily I'll be at my folks in suburban Columbia, SC (Irmo) for the event, hopefully better chance there.

[WeatherNC]

ILM disco...lame

I just read that and thought it was pretty good. Main thing to take away from this is the point in bold above... That is a sig trend in the right direction for the ILM CWA. RAH did not even update there Long Term this afternoon. Not sure if they are going to run the early am one for 24 hrs, or update later this afternoon. However, considering they just updated everything else, makes me think they will wait till the overnight shift to update the long term, once more guidance is in.

there are some 'hints" in there, not terrible for this far out and we know that your area will be the last to see a changover if there even is one. Ive seen people comparing this setup to Jan '88, there was some measurable snow at both ILM and Myrtle for that event. Luckily I'll be at my folks in suburban Columbia, SC (Irmo) for the event, hopefully better chance there.

you beat me to it, pretty good disco at this range

[burgertime]

I see nothing wrong with local AFD's not wanting to pull the trigger. This is 5 days out, they should wait until Wed. before they start honking. Putting things out now does nothing really, in fact it hurts if come Christmas this storm is well north or OTS, so it's actually a smart move.

[UNCCmetgrad]

Yeah, and if I'm not mistake, Allan has some research that he posted showing how one type of convection robs the moisture, whereas if it's configured a different way, it can actually enhance moisture transport. When all this is still on the table on Thursday, maybe someone can post that stuff. I also seem to remember that if the convection is oriented N/S, it has more of a tendency to rob moisture transport than if it's oriented E/W.

If my memory serves me correctly convection that runs quickly out ahead of an area of low pressure is more likely to disrupt moisture transport north than a line of convection that moves slower in relation to the low.

[eyewall]

RAH is taking their time on the long term. I am sure it will be mentioned but with a high amount of caution and a conservative approach (the right move at this juncture).

[fig]

I just read that and thought it was pretty good. Main thing to take away from this is the point in bold above... That is a sig trend in the right direction for the ILM CWA. RAH did not even update there Long Term this afternoon. Not sure if they are going to run the early am one for 24 hrs, or update later this afternoon. However, considering they just updated everything else, makes me think they will wait till the overnight shift to update the long term, once more guidance is in.

you beat me to it, pretty good disco at this range

Good point. I guess I was hung up on the fact that they don't want to change the forecast and are leaving us at 55 for Xmas day. I guess they want more confidence on whether that warm front is really going to come up here or not. As much as I'd love a white xmas, I'm not too worried, as I'll be in PA a few days later, and they'll almost surely have some snow for me

[griteater]

Yeah, and if I'm not mistake, Allan has some research that he posted showing how one type of convection robs the moisture, whereas if it's configured a different way, it can actually enhance moisture transport. When all this is still on the table on Thursday, maybe someone can post that stuff. I also seem to remember that if the convection is oriented N/S, it has more of a tendency to rob moisture transport than if it's oriented E/W.

From what I recall from reading Allan's research, if the line of convection moves way out ahead of the sfc low / cold front south of the sfc low, it robs the moisture transport moreso than if the convection stays close to the sfc low / close to the cold front south of the sfc low

[Cold Rain]

If my memory serves me correctly convection that runs quickly out ahead of an area of low pressure is more likely to disrupt moisture transport north than a line of convection that moves slower in relation to the low.

Yes that's it! I couldn't remember the distinction, but that's it exactly. Thanks!

[Cold Rain]

RAH is taking their time on the long term. I am sure it will be mentioned but with a high amount of caution and a conservative approach (the right move at this juncture).

Yeah, every time there is an interesting forecast period, they release that one significantly later than the other periods. It'll be interesting to hear what they have to say, that's for sure.

[FoothillsNC]

the 18Z NAM is very far south at 48 hours, about like the Euro. Negative tilt too, so it may cutoff (also like the Euro).

[keithinala]

From Jackson, Ky(nice for us in the Tenn. Valley to hear the part about south of Kentucky

THE FORECAST BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH QUITE A BUSY LONG TERM FORECAST

IN STORE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN

IS IN A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGH OVER THE EAST TYPE PATTERN.

UPPER LEVELS HINT AT A NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN AS WELL AND

THESE SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OS SHARING ENERGY AND WILL BECOME BIG

PLAYERS IN A POTENTIALLY MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND

INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. OVERALL FOR THE SYSTEM...PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS

HAVE BEEN FAIRLY AGREEABLE. HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN AND CONTINUE

TO BE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRENDS. 12Z RUNS FOR THE

GFS...EC...AND GEM HAVE ALL TAKEN A JAUNT SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM. THE

MOST RECENT RUN OF THE EURO HAS TAKEN A SIGNIFICANT TURN SOUTH WITH

THE QPF BULLSEYE GOING SOUTH WITH IT MAKING THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW

NOT VERY LIKELY (for Kentucky) GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND WHAT THE RUNS HAVE SHOWN

PREVIOUSLY...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE STRONG WORDING BUT WILL HOLD

OFF ON A ACTUAL NUMBER OF SNOWFALL

[magpiemaniac]

There are several depictions.

(snip photo)

Better?

While you can make the argument that the Tennessee River drainage basin can be the basis for defining the Tennessee Valley, I prefer to consider relative elevation above sea level. As a result, Mount Mitchell, North Carolina is most definitely NOT in the Tennessee Valley. My weekend cabin (elevation 2,630 feet) in western NC (or any of western NC for that matter) is also not in the Tennessee Valley. Look at a topo map and you'll see why.

Anyway, back on topic.

[UpStateCAD]

the 18Z NAM is very far south at 48 hours, about like the Euro. Negative tilt too, so it may cutoff (also like the Euro).

Any chance of this thing getting "too" supressed?

[Cheeznado]

Not in love with the Euro ensemble mean- faster and farther north, it has a weak surface low over central GA Xmas at 12Z. Still would be OK for NC, GA and SC not so much. As stated before, a long way to go, let's not wish forecast.

[Rob]

Not in love with the Euro ensemble mean- faster and farther north, it has a weak surface low over central GA Xmas at 12Z. Still would be OK for NC, GA and SC not so much. As stated before, a long way to go, let's not wish forecast.

Where is the Low situated at in AL?

[buckeyefan1]

Wonder if we will break a record if the models continue to show this potential?

159 User(s) are reading this topic

111 members, 43 guests, 5 anonymous users

[beanskip]

At 54 hours 18z NAM actually looks even slower than 12z NAM at 60 hours.

[FoothillsNC]

Any chance of this thing getting "too" supressed?

in the weather world, you can never really say never. Each and every year we get systems that many folks say there's no way it can head into the Lakes or northeast, or Midatlantic for various reasons, yet they most of the time have done just that. I cant count the number of times NC thought it was a lock at 5 days out, only to hit DC and NYC. Theres always the chance this shears out , which wouldn't be good for anybody, then bombs off new england I suppose. I like our chances though right now. The NAM has the trough just east of LAX at 60 hours. Just comparing how it is to the Euro. So far, so good.

[NEGa]

This is done.

Question for the field: Is this one of those situations where we're going to have to watch for potential moisture-robbing convection along the Gulf?

i always hope for the best and assume the worst with winter weather in the se. so many times things look great right up to the end. its always a concern that convection robs our moisture - but for me to be really convinced, its nowcasting when i see the precip lighting up over the GOM or alabama and start streaming this direction. last jan comes to mind with the first part of the storm (the snow part). the moisture just never materialized (at least in n ga)

[eyewall]

NAM has nice placement of the shortwave along the CA/AZ border at 60 hours. On a side note shouldn't cross thread trolling always be banned? Even when we are not in "storm mode"?

[Wow]

the 18Z NAM is very far south at 48 hours, about like the Euro. Negative tilt too, so it may cutoff (also like the Euro).

wow... very much so

[beanskip]

Your vortex is stronger on the NAM (like Euro). I'm beginning to think sheared out is a bigger concern than too far north with this baby.

in the weather world, you can never really say never. Each and every year we get systems that many folks say there's no way it can head into the Lakes or northeast, or Midatlantic for various reasons, yet they most of the time have done just that. I cant count the number of times NC thought it was a lock at 5 days out, only to hit DC and NYC. Theres always the chance this shears out , which wouldn't be good for anybody, then bombs off new england I suppose. I like our chances though right now. The NAM has the trough just east of LAX at 60 hours. Just comparing how it is to the Euro. So far, so good.

[NEGa]

I know there was a White Christmas in North GA in 1989. That's the only time I remember.

may have been, but it wasnt all that widespread (ie., not in athens that year )