kanc2001 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I am amazed that JB is sticking with his I-70 to I-80 snowstorm........then up the coast, in light of all the data trending south. IMO there is a lot bigger chance of a snowfall south of I-70(and it's looking like I-20 to I-40 becoming more likely. It's not like it will be his first miss though I guess. shouldn't be shocking as that is were most of accufail's paying clients are located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 p.s. Cold Rain needs to start our new thread once this one gets too big, as he is the one who guaranteed us this storm and it would be bad Karma imo for it not to carryover to the next thread. This is done. Question for the field: Is this one of those situations where we're going to have to watch for potential moisture-robbing convection along the Gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 If it continues to look the same as it does now. he will have to change it. No Doubt he will. I am amazed that JB is sticking with his I-70 to I-80 snowstorm........then up the coast, in light of all the data trending south. IMO there is a lot bigger chance of a snowfall south of I-70(and it's looking like I-20 to I-40 becoming more likely. It's not like it will be his first miss though I guess. Good question. As Hky posted above, that system robbed some folks! This is done. Question for the field: Is this one of those situations where we're going to have to watch for potential moisture-robbing convection along the Gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 You guys are hilarious, it is true about their disco's. :gun_bandana: FFC is certainly not impressed. Let's withhold judgment for a bit, it's still early in the game... .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... DRY INTO FRIDAY WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING FROM THE PLAINS BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OUR WAY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING IT MOVING SWIFTLY THROUGH...WITH THE LOW INTO SC BY MIDDAY DAY SATURDAY... AND THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE LITTLE WRAP MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR MASS PUSHING IN COULD PRODUCE SOME SNOW FLAKES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY CLEARING AND COLDER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 shouldn't be shocking as that is were most of accufail's paying clients are located. Amazed is a poor choice of words i guess, as I know where his "base" is located. He mentions the Dec of 69 storm in his vids, but you'd think he'd want to stay on top of this once since he busted pretty badly last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 With a brief break in our reverie... There's no doubt that if this trend continues, we're going to have an unholy number of "How much for me?" posts And they're going to cheese most of us off. Is there anyway we could create a "how much for me?" thread once things really get cooking? It would satisfy the folks who have only that question, and keep them from clogging the superb on-going discussion in here. I think we all recall the days when all we worried about was how much was going to fall in Bunnlevel or Round O or Bug Hill or Nellie's Nipple. And if it can't be done, such is life. But the SE being the most accommodating folks in all of weatherdom, perhaps we can help these folks out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Nothing could be better for Xmas in Nashville than what is be depicted. I guess us here in TN have our own region What is that brown area ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Lame ass disco from FFC as usual. Long term /Thursday through Monday/... dry into Friday when the next system dropping from the plains brings the next chance of precipitation our way Friday night into Christmas morning. Models currently showing it moving swiftly through...with the low into SC by midday day Saturday... and the front well south of the County Warning Area. However...the little wrap moisture and colder air mass pushing in could produce some snow flakes for portions of the County Warning Area Saturday night. Sunday into Monday clearing and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepSouthSC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Where's your neck of the woods? You need to update your settings and input your location! I live in Columbia, SC. Good idea, Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 FFC is certainly not impressed. Let's withhold judgment for a bit, it's still early in the game... .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... DRY INTO FRIDAY WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING FROM THE PLAINS BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OUR WAY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING IT MOVING SWIFTLY THROUGH...WITH THE LOW INTO SC BY MIDDAY DAY SATURDAY... AND THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE LITTLE WRAP MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR MASS PUSHING IN COULD PRODUCE SOME SNOW FLAKES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY CLEARING AND COLDER. They are going by the last run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I would place those in the general SE thread. With a brief break in our reverie... There's no doubt that if this trend continues, we're going to have an unholy number of "How much for me?" posts And they're going to cheese most of us off. Is there anyway we could create a "how much for me?" thread once things really get cooking? It would satisfy the folks who have only that question, and keep them from clogging the superb on-going discussion in here. I think we all recall the days when all we worried about was how much was going to fall in Bunnlevel or Round O or Bug Hill or Nellie's Nipple. And if it can't be done, such is life. But the SE being the most accommodating folks in all of weatherdom, perhaps we can help these folks out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Love it!!! Right on! Here is how it works on AmericanWx and with the HPC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 What is that brown area ? Tennessee Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Tennessee Valley So part of Georgia is in the Tennessee Valley ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Tennessee Valley HMMM, no offense Rob, but that map needs some work.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 If it continues to look the same as it does now. he will have to change it. No Doubt he will. Good question. As Hky posted above, that system robbed some folks! We better not have to deal with that this time! Anyway, JB should be excited to change his forecast...he's been honking a white Christmas very far south this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Also, I saw GSP's discussion earlier and they really haven't updated much since the model trends. They mentioned if the Euro is followed.. there may have to be a significant forecast overhaul. NOAA has to be really careful around Atlanta, CAE, CLT, etc because this isn't a normal time period for a chance at Winter weather around. They have to stay conservative and make sure things are looking more certain before they pull the Winter word even in their discussion. This has the chance to make a lot of people upset/mess their plans up if there is a forecast bust on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 With a brief break in our reverie... There's no doubt that if this trend continues, we're going to have an unholy number of "How much for me?" posts And they're going to cheese most of us off. Is there anyway we could create a "how much for me?" thread once things really get cooking? It would satisfy the folks who have only that question, and keep them from clogging the superb on-going discussion in here. I think we all recall the days when all we worried about was how much was going to fall in Bunnlevel or Round O or Bug Hill or Nellie's Nipple. And if it can't be done, such is life. But the SE being the most accommodating folks in all of weatherdom, perhaps we can help these folks out? I think a thread with only solid analysis/model data from mets, forecasters and educated posters would be better. This would let people know how much for their area while educating them so they can better determine how much they'll get in future situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 FFC is certainly not impressed. Let's withhold judgment for a bit, it's still early in the game... .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... DRY INTO FRIDAY WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING FROM THE PLAINS BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OUR WAY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING IT MOVING SWIFTLY THROUGH...WITH THE LOW INTO SC BY MIDDAY DAY SATURDAY... AND THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE LITTLE WRAP MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR MASS PUSHING IN COULD PRODUCE SOME SNOW FLAKES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY CLEARING AND COLDER. FFC not being impressed is the norm. No surprise there. They blew it last week too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Also, I saw GSP's discussion earlier and they really haven't updated much since the model trends. They mentioned if the Euro is followed.. there may have to be a significant forecast overhaul. NOAA has to be really careful around Atlanta, CAE, CLT, etc because this isn't a normal time period for a chance at Winter weather around. They have to stay conservative and make sure things are looking more certain before they pull the Winter word even in their discussion. This has the chance to make a lot of people upset/mess their plans up if there is a forecast bust on Christmas. Well late December/Early January is about as favorable for snow in Atlanta as any other time of year (which isn't saying a lot). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 HMMM, no offense Rob, but that map needs some work.... There are several depictions. Better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 If the Euro and Canadian are right, some of us might need to add a snow shovel to our Christmas lists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 HMMM, no offense Rob, but that map needs some work.... The map represents the Tennessee River drainage which does, in fact drain most of North Georgia. The Little Tennessee River actually begins between in North Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 FFC not being impressed is the norm. No surprise there. They blew it last week too. Yeah, I don't want to take this thread off on a tangent but FFC and the SE gang aren't closest of friends...lol Where are you at by the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Well late December/Early January is about as favorable for snow in Atlanta as any other time of year (which isn't saying a lot). What I meant was the days this would happen. Atlanta has only ever had 2 storm of greater than a trace of snow on Christmas. I haven't even looked at Columbia and Charlotte, but honestly. White Christmas down this far South is thought to be a myth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I think a thread with only solid analysis/model data from mets, forecasters and educated posters would be better. This would let people know how much for their area while educating them so they can better determine how much they'll get in future situations. As a rule, you're absolutely right! I imagine most of us learned to be fluent, or at least conversational, by reading and digesting here. My concern is more pragmatic. If this system develops into a full-blown winter cavalcade, we may not be able to manage the flood of imby folks. We all know they don't mean ill, but they would be coming. I'm just wondering if it wouldn't serve us all better to have a "kiddie pool" for them to splash in, rather than bogging down the deep end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah, I don't want to take this thread off on a tangent but FFC and the SE gang aren't closest of friends...lol Where are you at by the way? Huntsville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 18z NAM rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 What I meant was the days this would happen. Atlanta has only ever had 2 storm of greater than a trace of snow on Christmas. I haven't even looked at Columbia and Charlotte, but honestly. White Christmas down this far South is thought to be a myth. I know there was a White Christmas in North GA in 1989. That's the only time I remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Also, I saw GSP's discussion earlier and they really haven't updated much since the model trends. They mentioned if the Euro is followed.. there may have to be a significant forecast overhaul. NOAA has to be really careful around Atlanta, CAE, CLT, etc because this isn't a normal time period for a chance at Winter weather around. They have to stay conservative and make sure things are looking more certain before they pull the Winter word even in their discussion. This has the chance to make a lot of people upset/mess their plans up if there is a forecast bust on Christmas. Here is the updated discussion for GSP .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY INTERESTING OVER THE MID-SOUTH FOR CHRISTMAS. ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A STRONG SHORT WAVE TO THE CA COAST LATE WED. THE WAVE THEN TRACKS ESE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...GRADUALLY BEING PUSHED SOUTH BY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NERN CONUS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE CUT-OFF WITH THE SHORT WAVE THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS. BEING SLOWER...IT ALSO PHASES THE SRN STREAM WAVE WITH MORE NRN STREAM ENERGY WHICH DROPS INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A STRONGER SFC LOW THAT CROSSES SOUTH OF THE FA ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE SHIELD OF PCPN...MUCH OF WHICH WOULD FALL AS SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY. WHAT/S INTERESTING IS THAT THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN NEARLY IDENTICAL IN THIS REGARD. THE GFS/S SHORT WAVE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MORE OPEN...AND THE NRN STREAM ENERGY TENDS TO FLATTEN THE WAVE RATHER THAN AMPLIFY IT. IT/S ALSO THE WARMER SOLUTION. HOWEVER...IT STILL GENERATES SNOW OVER THE MTNS AND A MIX OUT INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS. THE CANADIAN IS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE...THOUGH IT TOO WOULD IMPLY MORE OF A SNOW THREAT ACROSS A GOOD BIT OF THE FA. THIS EVENT IS STILL A LONG WAYS OUT. THE WAVE THAT GENERATES THE PCPN WON/T EVEN BE ON THE WEST COAST UNTIL MID-WEEK. IT/S SIMPLY NOT POSSIBLE TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FINER DETAILS OF THE FORECAST YET. THE DEVELOPING MODEL CONSENSUS IN A MORE SLY SOLUTION CERTAINLY IMPLIES GREATER CHANCES OF WINTER WX OVER PARTS OF THE FA...BUT IT WILL STILL BE A WHILE UNTIL WE HAVE A HANDLE ON PCPN TYPE AND AMOUNTS. AS THE LOW DEEPENS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...ACCUMULATING NW FLOW SNOW IS A GOOD BET SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT OVER THE NC MTNS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THE SAT-MON PERIOD.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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