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Christmas Storm


Cold Rain

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No doubt, Even though we had a WAA and the county schools were closed on Thursday, it was a non event for me.

A thin coat of fr. What a waste of cold air.....

I'm getting a little tired of having all this cold with nothing to really to show for it. A little freezing rain and flurries is all I've managed to get.

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Friday...Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain. Windy. Highs in the mid 40s.

Friday Night...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain and snow. Windy. Lows around 30.

Christmas Day...Mostly sunny. Windy. Highs around 40.

At least snow in mentioned!:snowman:

This one should be a fun one to track this week! Could be a north ga/ nw sc/ western nc special. Need some changes in our favor this week and I got a bad feeling this is it for these areas.

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In my 41 years I have never had a white Christmas but I have to admit this has possibilities. Nice to see the euro has shifted a little south. By the looks of things temps might be an issue but plenty of time to see how it all works out.

In my 38 years I've been skunked on Christmas as well. This has the look at least on the Euro of a CHANCE which rarely we have.

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In my 41 years I have never had a white Christmas but I have to admit this has possibilities. Nice to see the euro has shifted a little south. By the looks of things temps might be an issue but plenty of time to see how it all works out.

I beat you by 18! I will keep wishing and hoping though.

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I am 45 years old and I have seen 2 days here with accumulating snow on Christmas. One was 1969, and the other was 1993. I did see flurries on Christmas a few more times. one in particular was Christmas Day 1980........... My dad has a picture from the 1947 Christmas Day snow that covered a lot of areas around the SE.

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I am younger than most of you and have probably seen more white Christmases than most here because I spent the first 10 years of my life in NE Massachusetts :guitar:.

I"m 35 and had one in SC ('89) and 3 in NH, lived up there 2000-2003. The one in 2000 was actually on the Summit of Mt. Washington when I interned at the Observatory for winter 2000-01.

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I am younger than most of you and have probably seen more white Christmases than most here because I spent the first 10 years of my life in NE Massachusetts :guitar:.

It doesn't count as much as an Atl. area snow for Christmas would :) MIght be centuries before the like would occur again, if it ever does the first time.

I'm surprised Rosie never had one up there. I just thought Atl. and south was the only shutout.

I've seen flurries on Christmas day in Atl., several times...but a shut down the streets snow I wouldn't bet on, lol. I was very surprised Larry said there had been ice storms.

I'm holding more hope for a snowy New Years. Get an old front and a weak gulf low coming up into some reinforced cold air... that would be nice. T

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Ok folks....the 18z run of the GFS has trended much better.....farther south and colder. Still not the perfect track for snow, but one more southward jog like this one and were in business :snowman:

edit....at 144h the LP track went from Kentucky to upstate SC in one run

Healthy upslope after that. (of course, I got nothing from the last upslope) But, good for SnoJoe maybe and our Tn. border friends.

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18z gfs has a nice 1038 hp in the northern plains as well much better looking setup than the last. if we could get the pna to spike around this time we will be in business.

actually it is currently forecast to head towards positive right around the time of the storm.

pna.sprd2.gif

so with that said i could see this turning into and ice scenario at the very least if things pan out. but after this weekend system being modeled so terrible i would be very cautious. because all of the flip flopping

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Healthy upslope after that. (of course, I got nothing from the last upslope) But, good for SnoJoe maybe and our Tn. border friends.

You got any snow left on the ground over there? It's all gone over here after today. except what is left on the side of the roads from the plows. I would just be happy with some light snow on Christmas.

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18z gfs has a nice 1038 hp in the northern plains as well much better looking setup than the last. if we could get the pna to spike around this time we will be in business.

actually it is currently forecast to head towards positive right around the time of the storm.

pna.sprd2.gif

It looks like the theme for this year is for storms at this range to trend south, getting suppressed fromthe blocking. With no strong STJ this year, It's hard for anything to come north, unlike last year.

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Healthy upslope after that. (of course, I got nothing from the last upslope) But, good for SnoJoe maybe and our Tn. border friends.

I'm thinking this will trend more southward with time and be good for folks east of the mtns as well. The high pressure is much stronger this run and looks to be supressing the system as it tracks east. As was mentioned in an earlier post....all the players are on the field. This might just be our best shot at a big one. QPF is 0.50"-0.75" for the event.. Let's just hope it's still there in later runs.

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I'm thinking this will trend more southward with time and be good for folks east of the mtns as well. The high pressure is much stronger this run and looks to be supressing the system as it tracks east. As was mentioned in an earlier post....all the players are on the field. This might just be our best shot at a big one. QPF is 0.50"-0.75" for the event.. Let's just hope it's still there in later runs.

Looks closer to the euro and the GFS ensemble mean. Not as far south as the CMC. Im not wanting a big one with this being Christmas.A fresh 3-5 would be nice.:snowman:

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It looks like the theme for this year is for storms at this range to trend south, getting suppressed fromthe blocking. With no strong STJ this year, It's hard for anything to come north, unlike last year.

Oh yes i agree. But the block i supposed to start relaxing, so that needs to be watched as well. But we really need this thing to stay suppresed to have a better chance of getting the cold air in here.But overall i feel that this has a much better shot for something significant, Than this last system with more players on the field. Looks like more of a classic winter storm signal on all of the modeling for the more of the southeast. would like to here a mets opinion though.

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Oh yes i agree. But the block i supposed to start relaxing, so that needs to be watched as well. But we really need this thing to stay suppresed to have a better chance of getting the cold air in here.But overall i feel that this has a much better shot for something significant, Than this last system with more players on the field. Looks like more of a classic winter storm signal on all of the modeling for the more of the southeast. would like to here a mets opinion though.

This looks like a classic west to east wave. Don't have to worry about any phasing issues with this one. It's nice to see that the models are trending south.

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Those "patterns" however, tend to screw the MA and NE, and it looks like we are in one currently, at-least from this end climo speaking. :snowman:

SOMETIMES that is true! OTHER times, patterns can bring snow further South, and not North. Think 1979-80.

This post lacks clarity and accuracy, as stating sometimes that is true, when in fact most of the time, this is the case. Furthermore, "other times" when the patterns brings snow further south, like the March 1980 event, is inaccurate as this illustrates a favorable pattern for the SE as whole, which is a VA south hit.

accum.19800302.gif

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DGEX gives almost all of NC a white Christmas....also upon further inspection, most of SC too.

850 line runs from just south of ILM to ATL for the event, will post the porn graphic from NCEP once the 18z run is up there, but this should give the general flavor as it is going to be pretty arousing for many! :popcorn:

18zdgexp72192.gif

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