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Christmas Storm

Cold Rain

By Cold Rain,
in Southeastern States

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Wow

Wow

Posted
Posted

I'm pretty amazed at how close most of the models are now at days 4 through 6. Its almost unbelievable to have this much agreement. A few miles is to be expected but they're really clustered tight that the Southeast and Tenn Valley is in for a snowy Christmas (Christmas Eve in part of Tenn/ky/Miss/Ark). If the 5H holds up like the Euro suggest, i'd expect the Qpf to really ramp up. Theres great divergence ahead of it, and very far north, unlike this past weekend weak wave event, so the breakout of overrunning moisture could be a lot faster than progged. Also, the last Jan30 storm did this same thing. Well ahead of schedule. Of course the dry slot came in for western SC and southern NC too quick. Lets keep convection out of this one.

Ah yes that was a fun one to track. I remember we happened to hit that streak of precip ahead of and put down a couple inches before most had even seen a flake! Unfortunately, the sleet arrived later that evening and killed our accumulations. And then the convection issue too.

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Itunis

Itunis

Posted
Posted

I'm pretty amazed at how close most of the models are now at days 4 through 6. Its almost unbelievable to have this much agreement. A few miles is to be expected but they're really clustered tight that the Southeast and Tenn Valley is in for a snowy Christmas (Christmas Eve in part of Tenn/ky/Miss/Ark). If the 5H holds up like the Euro suggest, i'd expect the Qpf to really ramp up. Theres great divergence ahead of it, and very far north, unlike this past weekend weak wave event, so the breakout of overrunning moisture could be a lot faster than progged. Also, the last Jan30 storm did this same thing. Well ahead of schedule. Of course the dry slot came in for western SC and southern NC too quick. Lets keep convection out of this one.

I'm trying not to be a weenie here...but do you notice that more powerful/significant storms tend to be picked up and "locked on" to by the models earlier on? I heard some discussion on this last year, basically the consensus seemed to be the greater the disturbance, the more likely the models are to cluster around a solution.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

HPC final extended disco... A lot appears to be cut and paste from the prelim this morning. And also, one has to love there affection towards the SE, almost like the main-side model threads in that winter only exists north of the VA-NC boarder...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

147 PM EST MON DEC 20 2010

VALID 12Z THU DEC 23 2010 - 12Z MON DEC 27 2010

SOUTH AND EAST...

THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOW/MORE CLOSED THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC

GUIDANCE WITH ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN

PLAINS...WITH LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF THE OVERALL 00Z GLOBAL

ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING ITS SOLUTION...IMPLYING IT IS TOO

SLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS

SYSTEMS PROGRESSION...SO SOME SLOWING WAS MADE TO THE MORNING

PRESSURES. TELECONNECTIONS FARTHER NORTH IMPLY STRONGER ENERGY

SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY RATHER

THAN THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHICH SHOULD ABSORB THE SOUTHWESTERN

ENERGY AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. EITHER WAY...A

SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

INTO/NEAR THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MUCH OF THE

EASTERN SEABOARD. THE BIGGER QUESTION IS HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW

ENGLAND COAST THIS CYCLONE WILL TRACK. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST

NORTHWESTERLY OF THE GUIDANCE AT THE SURFACE...AND IF THIS SURFACE

LOW WERE MOVING UP THE EAST SIDE OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH RATHER

THAN A PROGRESSIVE CLOSED CYCLONE...A MORE COASTAL TRACK FOR NEW

ENGLAND WOULD MAKE SENSE. SINCE THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE

CASE...AND THE 12Z ECMWF BACKED OFF THIS IDEA SOMEWHAT...THE 00Z

ECMWF CYCLONE TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST IS PROBABLY TOO FAR

NORTHWEST/TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST. OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE

ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS...MOVE THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE GULF

STREAM...A NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE/AREA OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT

OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST...WHICH APPEARS MORE LIKELY CONSIDERING

THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THE 12Z CANADIAN/12Z NOGAPS MOVE IT DUE

EAST AS IT EMERGES INTO THE ATLANTIC...TAKING NEW ENGLAND OUT OF

THE PICTURE. DETAIL ISSUES WITH MID-LEVEL CYCLONE PLACEMENT HAVE

LED TO INCREASED SPREAD OF THE LOW TRACK AS IT LEAVES THE EAST

COAST. PER PREFERENCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WEST LATE IN THE

PERIOD...STARTED WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN HERE...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z

ECMWF/00Z GEFS MEAN/12Z GFS ARE REASONABLE ALTERNATIVES. EITHER

WAY...WINTER WEATHER SHOULD SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS

EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC

STATES...AS WELL AS SNOW SHOWERS UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL

LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE IMPACT OF THIS

SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A

QUESTION MARK... AS THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY DRIED OUT OF THE

MID-ATLANTIC STATES YET INCREASED AMOUNTS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST

NEW ENGLAND. FOR THE TIME BEING THE MORE NORTHWESTERN 00Z ECMWF

TRACK AND THE SLOW PACE OF THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION APPEAR TO BE

LOWER PROBABILITY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS.

ROTH

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
Posted

When I said here, I meant my house in the heart of the city. The NE burbs are certainly in play on these runs. I may not have to drive far, but lets tone down the excitement for now, a lot of time/model runs to go.

What area do you consider the NE burbs? As an Atlanta native myself I always think of Spaghetti junction and points NE as the NE burbs.

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NEGa

NEGa

Posted
Posted

I'm pretty amazed at how close most of the models are now at days 4 through 6. Its almost unbelievable to have this much agreement. A few miles is to be expected but they're really clustered tight that the Southeast and Tenn Valley is in for a snowy Christmas (Christmas Eve in part of Tenn/ky/Miss/Ark). If the 5H holds up like the Euro suggest, i'd expect the Qpf to really ramp up. Theres great divergence ahead of it, and very far north, unlike this past weekend weak wave event, so the breakout of overrunning moisture could be a lot faster than progged. Also, the last Jan30 storm did this same thing. Well ahead of schedule. Of course the dry slot came in for western SC and southern NC too quick. Lets keep convection out of this one.

well holy snowmobile :lol: just had a chance to check the board for the first time since early morning. i figured something was up with 236 new replies but had no idea what it was. holy cow - this is unbelievable, and i cant believe i am being sucked in yet AGAIN lol. however, the bold part is what really got my attention. we are less than a week out and there is some consensus? i am scared :scooter: i still do not believe it is going to snow saturday (irregardless of whether its christmas or not :scooter: ) but i will be paying attention the next few days to see

this would be an unimagineable event for the se peeps :thumbsup: if the consensus of the models stay together its going to be an interesting end of the week

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

They make me want to throw up with their VA north bias. I've boycotted reading their discos.

HPC final extended disco... A lot appears to be cut and paste from the prelim this morning. And also, one has to love there affection towards the SE, almost like the main-side model threads in that winter only exists north of the VA-NC boarder...

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HKY_WX

HKY_WX

Posted
Posted

Canadian qpf:

HKY/iNT/GSO/IGX/RDU/RWI: .5 roughly

BNA/TYS/TNB/ATL/AVL/GSP/CLT/FAY: .5-.75

AHN/AGS/CAE/FLO/MYR/ILM: .75-1.00

The amounts on the mods seem kinda low to me given the setup. The strength and size of the 500mb vort on the euro at day 5 sitting in TX would argue for a pretty big precip shield. There will certainly be a noticeable UL vortex in TX on the Water vapor in a few days if the mods are right.

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rosie

rosie

Posted
Posted

ONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

/ISSUED 610 AM EST MON DEC 20 2010/

UPPER RIDGE HOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE

MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. GFS HAS THE

FRONT CROSSING THE STATE FRIDAY WITH DRYING ON SATURDAY. NEW ECMWF

HAS DIFFERENT SOLUTION IN BRINGING THE SHORT WAVE INTO THE

SOUTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS...HAVE

CHOSEN TO STAY WITH ORIGINAL GFS AT THIS TIME AND LET LATER SHIFTS

LOOK AT THE NEXT MODEL RUNS.

Love this last statement!

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Wow

Wow

Posted
Posted

The amounts on the mods seem kinda low to me given the setup. The strength and size of the 500mb vort on the euro at day 5 sitting in TX would argue for a pretty big precip shield. There will certainly be a noticeable UL vortex in TX on the Water vapor in a few days if the mods are right.

Give it a couple days until we're within 72. As you know QPF estimates from the models is one of the least accurate parameters, especially beyond a couple days prior.

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Itunis

Itunis

Posted
Posted

ONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

/ISSUED 610 AM EST MON DEC 20 2010/

UPPER RIDGE HOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE

MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. GFS HAS THE

FRONT CROSSING THE STATE FRIDAY WITH DRYING ON SATURDAY. NEW ECMWF

HAS DIFFERENT SOLUTION IN BRINGING THE SHORT WAVE INTO THE

SOUTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS...HAVE

CHOSEN TO STAY WITH ORIGINAL GFS AT THIS TIME AND LET LATER SHIFTS

LOOK AT THE NEXT MODEL RUNS.

Love this last statement!

How things changed...I can't wait for their afternoon disco. They'll probably play things down for now since we're still far out and this is a relatively recent trend, but this is shaping up to be a fun week for our WFOs...:popcorn:

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