QC_Halo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 beat me to it.... they mentioned during the lunch news that there was potential to see some flakes flying around. Not surprising. I would suspect the local station that talks about a Christmas snow could expect a spike in viewers, no? I imagine they will al start to at least mention it. They cant afford not to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Unbelievable run....The perfect track for the SE crew and plenty of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I am just looking at the 6 hour QPF increments here at home. I will let somebody else that has the cumulative data try and answer that..... Can you give us a general idea on the QPF the Euro paints? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I wouldnt' sweat the QPF amounts. Even in .50 to .75" amount liquid, theres going to be some good ratios on the north sheild. During 1988 (colder aloft I know) the storm only dropped about .25" or so if I recall, yet that was widespread 10" to 15" amounts. If youre in the north side, the amounts are going to be good I think. The models continue getting colder beause the NF vortex is so strong. The wave in the Southwest coming into Texas is due east the whole track. Its a golden setup, great overunning, and great qpf maker, even though its not labeled as that yet, It will be over time I think. Excellent divergence as well. Still the biggest question is the northenr stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 one very important feature is the speed of that s/w if its just a little faster last run then it would have phased a little sooner which would be good or bad depending on where your at in the se. if its slower then its probably further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 This Euro is looking very similar to the CMC- would be snow for a lot of folks including far north and NE Georgia, probably just a very close miss here. If this is true a Xmas road trip up to the NE part of the state seems in order... It really does look like we're on the razor's edge here. We need this thing to come just a bit farther south to give us a bit of a margin to work with. Still very encouraging signs on the 12Z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 This was a terrific run indeed. Much better than what I thought the 12z would do. If we were a tad closer to the date of the event, I would get pretty excited about this, but for now, let's be glad that it's still being shown here. We have a lot on the table to work with, and it seems to be all coming together for what could be a nice snowy hit for parts of the SE during Christmas. Let's see what the 18z runs of the other modeling has to say about this, shall we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'll take this is a dream run. Love the track of all teh features involved, and for LOTS of the southeast, you' cant beat this. of course not every single location wil hit the jackpot, but this is the best setup to give many of us the most possible. A greatest common denominator. I'd say the snow DOES get to ATL but they re ont eh line verbatim, the trend though is a little colder. With the surface low so far south, their in the Game but a safer bet now is the I-20 and north. Its overall very remininscent of Jan 88 but without a jetstreak ahead of the overrunning, dont know haven't seen that yet. The GGEM had the looks for sure. Great run, we can worry about amounts later. If the phase is later and not aas strong, then it won't be a big time dumping snow, but some places getting over 6" is a good snowstorm in my opinion. The fact it starts in less than 5 days is great as well. Hopefully things trend better and better. You' can't ask for a better past 24 hours of model watching, ever , probably for the Southeast. When is Atlanta not on the line ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 It really does look like we're on the razor's edge here. We need this thing to come just a bit farther south to give us a bit of a margin to work with. Still very encouraging signs on the 12Z models. At face value the Canadian and Euro both look good for you. Enjoy these runs while we have them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Cheeze, not to be fical, but the CMC at face value would be a hit for the NE burbs... even looks I-20 northward at the 12Z mark on Christmas day. One thing is for sure, the trend has come south.... I hate being on that fine line, a ton of models between now and Saturday for sure. At least we are in the game. When I said here, I meant my house in the heart of the city. The NE burbs are certainly in play on these runs. I may not have to drive far, but lets tone down the excitement for now, a lot of time/model runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 When is Atlanta not on the line ? Last February we were comfortably north of "the line". Remember Lookout is cracking down on posts like this... But isn't this a beautiful sight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Greater than .50" eastern Carolinas and eastern cntrl GA, and over .75" in much of central OK, even over 1" near OKC (inverted trough will slam them) Theres a min area near western Tenn and central VA, otherwise for the SE crew its betwee.35" and .50" from what I can gather. If it goes neg. tilt a smidge earlier then it would be a stunner of a snowstorm in the Southeast, no doubt . But we don't know the degree of phasing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 You' can't ask for a better past 24 hours of model watching, ever , probably for the Southeast. Loved this line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 For those of you who can view the Euro in 6 hr increments, does NE TN get in on the action from 120 hr to 144 hr. I am using the PSU e-wall. 144 hr looks to cut the moisture off at the top of the Apps. It may just be, as you say, to early to even think QPF. The set-up is nice though for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 It's a good setup. Hard to find many pitfalls. The only caveat I see at this point, is the degree and timing of the phase. If it becomes clear by wednesday or so a phase is likely, don't be surprised to see this SLP bump slowly north as we get closer, especially along the gulf coast. Just something I have seen happen many times over the years. The odds of this being a purely snow scenario this early in dec is unlikely. I think we're looking at a great storm, don't get me wrong, but be cautious on the precip types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 It would probably be fun to visit the Mid-Atlantic and Philly threads about now, while we are whooping it up about this run, they are likely not too happy... Seriously, there is a long way to go here folks- but at this point the trend is certainly our friend.... I'm glad I'll be a temporary member of your subforum during the holidays. At least I'm glad for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 When I said here, I meant my house in the heart of the city. The NE burbs are certainly in play on these runs. I may not have to drive far, but lets tone down the excitement for now, a lot of time/model runs to go. I might as well say what every single person on this board is thinking........this has to be too good to be true........... but hey, crazy past two winters here, so why not??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 It's a good setup. Hard to find many pitfalls. The only caveat I see at this point, is the degree and timing of the phase. If it becomes clear by wednesday or so a phase is likely, don't be surprised to see this SLP bump slowly north as we get closer, especially along the gulf coast. Just something I have seen happen many times over the years. The odds of this being a purely snow scenario this early in dec is unlikely. I think we're looking at a great storm, don't get me wrong, but be cautious on the precip types. Since when is December 25th "this early in December"? We already had an all snow even with a clipper and above freezing temps on the 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Greater than .50" eastern Carolinas and eastern cntrl GA, and over .75" in much of central OK, even over 1" near OKC (inverted trough will slam them) Theres a min area near western Tenn and central VA, otherwise for the SE crew its betwee.35" and .50" from what I can gather. If it goes neg. tilt a smidge earlier then it would be a stunner of a snowstorm in the Southeast, no doubt . But we don't know the degree of phasing yet. This would be something if my drive from I-495 (Long Island Expressway) straight down to I-95 through NC would be white. I am planning on driving down the 27th but may have to delay abit if the models are correct so the roads clear. Interesting solutions showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'm glad I'll be a temporary member of your subforum during the holidays. At least I'm glad for now... Where are you heading to in the SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Burger, put the cherry on top and spill the qpf for the fun of it. Charlotte surface in mid 20's got be some good ratios as well. Sorry I was at lunch lol. It's mainly a .25 or more event for the state verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Analogous to football The Euro has scored two big touchdowns in a row for the SE team. However, as the coach would say-“It’s only practice”. The big game is this weekend. Need to perfect that same play many times over during the upcoming practice week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I apologize if this image is large and will be glad to remove it if asked. I figured it had to go here too! 12Z JMA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Since when is December 25th "this early in December"? We already had an all snow even with a clipper and above freezing temps on the 4th. Meant "early in the winter". All snow from a Miller A in December is unlikely. Especially in GA and SC. If this were January 25, it would be more believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Love the 500mb Vorticity and 700mb RH / 850mb Temp Euro maps you are posting. Thanks. excellent set up at 72: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'm glad I'll be a temporary member of your subforum during the holidays. At least I'm glad for now... Hey, the Dude, another MA refugee lurking in this forum for the holidays. Heading to Nashville, so keenly interested in this for the drive and visit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Meant "early in the winter". All snow from a Miller A in December is unlikely. Especially in GA and SC. If this were January 25, it would be more believable. Why is all snow from a Miller A more unlikely in Late December than it is in January ?There has to be a reason behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Love the 500mb Vorticity and 700mb RH / 850mb Temp Euro maps you are posting. Thanks. You're welcome. I made some preset links to the PSU maps here: http://wow.americanwx.com/ecmwf/ecmwf.html If you want to make your own go to http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbcalc2.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'm pretty amazed at how close most of the models are now at days 4 through 6. Its almost unbelievable to have this much agreement. A few miles is to be expected but they're really clustered tight that the Southeast and Tenn Valley is in for a snowy Christmas (Christmas Eve in part of Tenn/ky/Miss/Ark). If the 5H holds up like the Euro suggest, i'd expect the Qpf to really ramp up. Theres great divergence ahead of it, and very far north, unlike this past weekend weak wave event, so the breakout of overrunning moisture could be a lot faster than progged. Also, the last Jan30 storm did this same thing. Well ahead of schedule. Of course the dry slot came in for western SC and southern NC too quick. Lets keep convection out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Why is all snow from a Miller A more unlikely in Late December than it is in January ?There has to be a reason behind it. I'll hazard that it's because there is less cold air built up to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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