Christmas Storm

[CaryWx]

Thanks Czar.

[FoothillsNC]

the UKMET, GGEM have converged futher south, along with GFS op. going further south, and the ensembles as well. The GGEM is very much like the 00Z Euro last night. Be sure to ignore the precip panels and qpf amounts at this range. Wahts important is the southerly tracking vort, the inverted trough, the big high to the north (it won't be as high as the overdone GGEM though), and good gulf tap of overunning. In fact the GGEM has overrunning the baroclinic boundary in the Tenn Valley pretty quick, starting Christmas Eve. That track would be a big snowfall for the Tenn. Valley, Arkansas northern Miss, Ala, and right to about ATL or atleast its northern suburbs, northwest half of SC and much of central and western NC probably to near the coast. Also, I think with the 5H stacking in Ohio, this would pull up the coast in Nor'easter fashion, like the Euro last night. The reason the GEM doesnt' do it is because already a new s/w is approaching southern California. This is an excellent snowstorm setup along I-40 and a couple hundred miles north and south of it in general, with the axis of best lift going from Okalahoma, Ark, Tenn, Ky, NC, SC, north Miss, Ala, GA and eastern to central VA. On Christmas Day no less.

Hopefully the Euro holds its ground. The iffy part is always how the northern stream interacts with the southern stream.

[NCStateMMY]

Anybody who really remebers, how is this set-up compared to the setup for the December 23-24 storm that creamed coastal SC and NC. I was 6 and remember about 3 inches at my house on Christamas morning near Rocky Mount. My grandparents in Goldsboro got close to a foot.

[Wow]

Allan, Wanted to let you know that we appreciate your thoughts. Also, I enjoy looking at your research.

Also, the 88 storm (I was 9) was the best one of my life...So far!

I remember being trapped in my aunt's condo in Greensboro during that one. That was the last time I experienced a foot of snow.

[Weather Czar]

Thanks Czar.

Once it starts phasing it's gonna tilt that trough Negative. Then the low will head north. Im sure Robert or a met can explain it alot better than me. But that's what I understand.

[CaryWx]

Nice analysis Foothills

[jrips27]

the UKMET, GGEM have converged futher south, along with GFS op. going further south, and the ensembles as well. The GGEM is very much like the 00Z Euro last night. Be sure to ignore the precip panels and qpf amounts at this range. Wahts important is the southerly tracking vort, the inverted trough, the big high to the north (it won't be as high as the overdone GGEM though), and good gulf tap of overunning. In fact the GGEM has overrunning the baroclinic boundary in the Tenn Valley pretty quick, starting Christmas Eve. That track would be a big snowfall for the Tenn. Valley, Arkansas northern Miss, Ala, and right to about ATL or atleast its northern suburbs, northwest half of SC and much of central and western NC probably to near the coast. Also, I think with the 5H stacking in Ohio, this would pull up the coast in Nor'easter fashion, like the Euro last night. The reason the GEM doesnt' do it is because already a new s/w is approaching southern California. This is an excellent snowstorm setup along I-40 and a couple hundred miles north and south of it in general, with the axis of best lift going from Okalahoma, Ark, Tenn, Ky, NC, SC, north Miss, Ala, GA and eastern to central VA. On Christmas Day no less.

Hopefully the Euro holds its ground. The iffy part is always how the northern stream interacts with the southern stream.

Great info!! You called the Euro last night Foothills! Do you prophecize another big hit today?

[oconeexman]

I remember being trapped in my aunt's condo in Greensboro during that one. That was the last time I experienced a foot of snow.

Best ever..no power for a week and couldn't drive anywhere

from between Walhalla SC and Salem SC where i lived then

[strongwxnc]

Crazy. Been a long time then!

88,93, 03 (in boone) was the only times I have been in 12" +.

This is going to be a long freaking week folks........

I remember being trapped in my aunt's condo in Greensboro during that one. That was the last time I experienced a foot of snow.

[Shawn]

Wow @ the GGEM precipitation type. Central SC is on the line.. but it clobbers us.

[bingcrosbyb]

According to the 12z Canadian, I could definitely see a deformation band setting up along the I-20 corridor. At this stage, I digress and hope the Euro doesn't take a step back.

[dsaur]

Unless it goes well south of you...I'm in for a cold rain also That's quite alright though as my eyes are also on the storm around New Years I don't think I have ever drunk posted before...and if it happens...well...I'll just say that Jose will be doing the talking for me

Plenty of time for the low to get right...and get down to Fla. If not, well, we can enjoy our rain and make up drinking songs about how much we wish N.C. would share the snow...just once

Another warm day here...48.5, 49.8, and 50...take your pick. T

[Weather Czar]

Best ever..no power for a week and couldn't drive anywhere

from between Walhalla SC and Salem SC where i lived then

I was right up the road from you then. I was living in Highlands.

[lilj4425]

The canadian model has yellow over my house. I'm never going back to Bloo Q Kazoo again.

[Wow]

Crazy. Been a long time then!

88,93, 03 (in boone) was the only times I have been in 12" +.

This is going to be a long freaking week folks........

very much so. March 93 ended with about 8-9, though the drifts were well over 1 ft in places. Jan 96 ended with 7-8". Feb 04 with 9" In Statesville.

[FoothillsNC]

Great info!! You called the Euro last night Foothills! Do you prophecize another big hit today?

LOL its hard to "predict" what the models are going to predict. But I think if it stays south coming into Cali, then it would end up good for the Southeast and MidAtlantic. However, I don't see how it could look any better than last nights run. Its going to be hard to get a better look,literally, so probably this run won't look as perfect. Still I'm expecting it to be similar to GGEM atleast. Good event, no matter what, and if for some wild reason we can get the phasing to occur over th Tenn Valley, and neg. tilt while the surface low is in southern Georgia, this would end up being the snow event of many of us for a lifetime down here,( outside the areas that were ground zero March 93.)

We'll see, think positive.

[Lookout]

Canadian at 120 hours with color! Looks very good.

Awfully pretty. Wish this was 24 hours out instead of 4.5 to 5 days. The models haven't been very impressive this year so I'm awfully cautious about getting even luke warm about a storm being shown 5 days away.

But it would be nice to get something out of all this cold weather.

[Lookout]

It seems this storm has attracted a pretty incredible amount of interest despite the time table. Nice.

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[farleydawg79]

TWC now says only rain for my area on Xmas Athens ga

[Lookout]

TWC now says only rain for my area on Xmas Athens ga

Stuff like "twc says" is not important for a ton of reasons, most of which people already know. Let's leave stuff like this out of the discussion.

[Weather Czar]

Big euro run coming up.

[Brian]

Is this good for ATL>? Thanks for all your map help....:snowman:

[MotoWeatherman]

Is this good for ATL>? Thanks for all your map help....:snowman:

Just read the discussions and all will be revealed.

[CaryWx]

Big euro run coming up.

Que nurse Ratchet for "medication time" announcement.

[Wow]

12z Euro.. 24 hrs. Watch the s/w crash into CA:

[Shawn]

Is this good for ATL>? Thanks for all your map help....:snowman:

Off the GGEM? You would most likely see something frozen! Specifics can't be predicted this far out though!

[farleydawg79]

Stuff like "twc says" is not important for a ton of reasons, most of which people already know. Let's leave stuff like this out of the discussion.

I totally agree. I just was commenting. Thanks

[FoothillsNC]

at 48 hours, Deep trough about to come onshore Calif, witha closed 5H just between LAX and SFO.

[Wow]

Here she comes at 48 hrs:

[Lookout]

Is this good for ATL>? Thanks for all your map help....:snowman:

Stuff like this is not cool either. Questions like this are answered already in the discussion 9/10 times. Plus, it's futile to list specific places likely to get anything this far in advance. If after all the discussion and there is no meaningful discussion of your *general area*, then these questions are ok. Otherwise, try not to..especially at this range. Thanks.