WidreMann Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 One thing I have noticed so far this season is the systems we have had have been faster then that models have progged in terms of arrival time. Obviously every situation is different but something to consider here as well. This is especially the case if we are trying to time northern and southern stream energy for phasing potential. Yep. The damn La Nina. One other thing: southern stream always ends up being weaker. Another thing: northern stream never digs. Of course, now that we have a PNA (briefly), it may be a lot different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I am not a GFS fan but right after thanksgiving it did show snow here on Christmas and it was 300 hrs away and now it is showing it still You can't possibly have seen that since the model does not go out a month in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Overall I like the models have trended south. Still a ways to go to see how this turns out. Verbatim this is a rain to snow for RDU per 12z gfs but it's to early to get into ptypes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 You can't possibly have seen that since the model does not go out a month in advance. it was posted on here Mr. Know it all! So whatever day it was I don't remember just seen it when it was posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 One of the biases to the Euro is the tendency to hold energy back in the southwest, however, one of the biases of the GFS is to be too progressive. A tad slower on the GFS and this phases sooner (similar to the Euro) IMO. Also interesting to note that the changes in surface continue a southward trend on the GFS. The low is much further south at 12z. Things are still on a march toward a Christmas storm (for someone in the southeast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I sure wish that the euro works out, but if a genie told me I could pick todays 12z GFS I would; and run with it. Looks like light snow would break out across north NC, light sleet in south NC; then it would transition to sleet freezing rain (dependent on CAD high to north); then back to light snow for many. Not much precip (maybe .25) but this would be snow for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Eagerly awaiting RW's post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'm excited to see that a storm is approaching, But I'm disturbed to see the petty bickering on some of the threads. I'd like to see the storm as much or more than a lot of folks as I make my living from it. So I'ld like to see a lot of Christmas spirit and everyone get along. Ray Grimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 the Euro wasn't really slower much, it was just much deeper with its southern wave. Thats what we'd want a better more defined open wave thats in western Texas. The handling of the western Canada ridge is whats different the most. We'll know soon if the Euro was just teasing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 the Euro wasn't really slower much, it was just much deeper with its southern wave. Thats what we'd want a better more defined open wave thats in western Texas. The handling of the western Canada ridge is whats different the most. We'll know soon if the Euro was just teasing us. Yeah, the EURO gave us the tease run last week, hopefully last nights wasn't a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 126 HR on 12z GFS. Look at 500mb. Way yonder different and better than it's 0Z run!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'm excited to see that a storm is approaching, But I'm disturbed to see the petty bickering on some of the threads. I'd like to see the storm as much or more than a lot of folks as I make my living from it. So I'ld like to see a lot of Christmas spirit and everyone get along. Ray Grimes I do as well Santa, but I don't bow down to the Grinch"s mouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah, the EURO gave us the tease run last week, hopefully last nights wasn't a tease. its teased us a lot this season from 7 days out and beyond, but not a lot I can remember within6 days. Hopefully it holds is southern route . We don't get muc opportunity for a split flow in La Nina, so we better use this while we can get it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 We are right on the edge...the line runs at the top of Lex/Rich counties oh yeah the dreaded edge, I grew up in Chapin, I know about the edge. I will be at my folks in Irmo on xmas day, so hopefully ill see a few flurries..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Way yonder different and better than it's 0Z run!! GFS ends up phasing late and the QPF is meager for a good bit of the south. But it looks eerily simlar to the Euro 12-24 hours earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Can you guys show some maps for us lay people? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 At this point it is easy to focus on details, but we have to remember the event is stil 96-132 hours away, and the key s/w wont be ashore untill Wednesday evening. There has been a lot of flip flopping with Saturday looking good, yesterday looking terrible and now today lookign good again. Obviously it is nice to see the models all shift south, but dont be surprised with another flip or two. Assuming the models are close to being right, often times in these situations where a strong 500mb low is near Newfoundland, and there is a strong high pressure over the northern plains along with a s/w moving across the southern US, the models underestimate the secondary high that will form over the northeast and will wedge down east of the mountains. If that is the case look for the more southerly track to work out. As Robery mentioned though, the GFS has more northern stream energy which could result in a further north track and less of that secondary high influence in the NE. Only time will tell. I like the trends though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg RGEM only goes out to 48. Check out the digging in the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 At this point it is easy to focus on details, but we have to remember the event is stil 96-132 hours away, and the key s/w wont be ashore untill Wednesday evening. There has been a lot of flip flopping with Saturday looking good, yesterday looking terrible and now today lookign good again. Obviously it is nice to see the models all shift south, but dont be surprised with another flip or two. Assuming the models are close to being right, often times in these situations where a strong 500mb low is near Newfoundland, and there is a strong high pressure over the northern plains along with a s/w moving across the southern US, the models underestimate the secondary high that will form over the northeast and will wedge down east of the mountains. If that is the case look for the more southerly track to work out. As Robery mentioned though, the GFS has more northern stream energy which could result in a further north track and less of that secondary high influence in the NE. Only time will tell. I like the trends though. Well said! You are becoming popular on the local Fox21 wx blog as Andy Wood and I have plugged your links many times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I have seen a couple white Christmas....it's been well over 25 yrs since I've seen snow in December..lol I do wish everyone could see a White Christmas at least once It's rare to get any snowfall here in the south during the winter, but there is just something special about snow on Christmas Day If the low doesn't get way south of me, I'll just see cold rain, but if it goes Miller B maybe you can get a good lashing with the snow whip If wrap around is all I'm offered, I won't hold my breath on it, and, I'll bide my time until New Years Eve...I have a hunch I'm getting a storm around then. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 This pattern doesn't show signs of relaxing either as out in fantasy land similar setups are abound. White Christmas maybe? White New Years maybe? Couldn't ask for better shots here in the SE in the near future. Like Robert said earlier it's time for some of us to catch up on our snow deficits! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 If the low doesn't get way south of me, I'll just see cold rain, but if it goes Miller B maybe you can get a good lashing with the snow whip If wrap around is all I'm offered, I won't hold my breath on it, and, I'll bide my time until New Years Eve...I have a hunch I'm getting a storm around then. T Unless it goes well south of you...I'm in for a cold rain also That's quite alright though as my eyes are also on the storm around New Years I don't think I have ever drunk posted before...and if it happens...well...I'll just say that Jose will be doing the talking for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Can you guys show some maps for us lay people? Thanks Hey Brian...Here is the NCEP's website if you don't already have it. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Hey Brian...Here is the NCEP's website if you don't already have it. http://www.nco.ncep....wprod/analysis/ We usually leave the map posting up to the METS and save the bandwidth Brian and LOOKOUT will crush you for posting big maps without very good disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 2:00ish. No, 1:00 during EST with PSU's maps: http://wow.americanwx.com/ecmwf/ecmwf.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 12z GFS ens mean, central AL ftw! offshore around CHS 100-150 miles off the OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 No, 1:00 during EST with PSU's maps: http://wow.americanw...cmwf/ecmwf.html Thx WoW and this is what we want to not change 500mb heights + Abs. Vorticity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I've got the canadian out to 96hrs and it looks awesome to me... way south of the 12z GFS. Surface low is just east of texas louisana border. It looks like the northern stream is about to feed in and get this baby going as well...l Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 12z GFS Ensemble mean is even further south at hour 120 compared to 12z GFS operational. The ensemble mean track is from central AL to CHS to east of HAT, compared to the op track of central AL to GSP to HAT. The latter favors a much more widespread wintry event in he SE. 12z GFS ENS MEAN 12z OP GFS 12z GFS EMS MEAN 12z OP GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Hey Brian...Here is the NCEP's website if you don't already have it. http://www.nco.ncep....wprod/analysis/ To add some more. here is a sort list I have. Very short... http://wxcaster.com/weather.php3 http://www.twisterdata.com/ http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html CMC http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html DGEX http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/ http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.