Christmas Storm

[WidreMann]

Well the trend is definitely good, but how do we know the models won't trend back north tomorrow? Sunday the models looked bad, Saturday they were trending good. Today they look good again but we don't know what the next 2 days hold. IMO, I won't really put much stock into the models until the s/w and energy that will affect this system comes onshore and is able to be sampled. Keep in mind the NAM has a smaller grid sample size than the gfs as well so the gfs right now can sample some things that the NAM doesn't sample in it's grid. The gfs is the outlier, but it's also been the best performed this year. The euro has extreme swings every day it seems and has lost it's credibility for me. If it were me, I'd go with a Canadian/GFS blend as those two have consistently done the best so far from what I've observed. Just my 2 cents on it.

You are engaging in modelology, not meteorology.

[UpStateCAD]

excellent post! At 66 hour, in west central AZ

Keep it up brother.....you're about to set the hook. I won't be getting any work done this week, if this thing holds serve by this time tomorrow.

Giddy Up!

[beanskip]

I smell a radio show!!!

Foothills, Ralieghwx check PMs

[snowlover91]

Gfs looking better right now and the trend by the models is good. Let's hope this continues to trend in our favor, would love to see NC and other areas in the south get crushed.

[Weather Czar]

I smell a radio show!!!

NOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!! :gun_bandana:

[burgertime]

@96 it looks further south. This doesn't look to be the Euro but a good step.

[WidreMann]

Of course this is a different set up, most of the storms this year have been different. From a clipper a few weeks back to this recent over running event to the storm in the gulf. They were different set ups, and the gfs did the best overall consistency wise and placement/track wise. Yes, it might not do well with this Christmas storm, but what's to say it won't? It's been the best model along with the Canadian, and I see no reason not to put my stock on it. And it does seem to be trending south which is good. However, like I said until the energy gets onshore models will continue to flip flop. The pattern does look great, but it's still 120-144 hours out and a whole lot can happen this far out, as we all know.

I don't think it's done that great at this range. The GFS was actually all over the place with last week's storm until the days before. Granted, most models were like that, so I won't count it too much against the GFS. But the GFS was consistent in showing a storm for a while too before dropping it. So what coup has it scored at this range?

[FoothillsNC]

at 84 and 90 it crossing the REd River and Ok. Suface low over Red River, not as muc qpf or amplified as the Euro or as far south, but a trend that way.

[snowlover91]

You are engaging in modelology, not meteorology.

Maybe I am, I'm just stating my opinion on what I've observed this winter, and since this is a weather forum where you can share your opinions, I thought i would share mine. Doesn't mean I'll be right because I'm not most of the time, it's just what I've noticed so far this fall/winter in the models. I've been burned by the models too many times in the 4-6 day range. I am excited about the potential, but not ready to jump on board. Just sharing my opinion is all.

[Weather Czar]

Great find weather! The GFS is looking much better for the southeast.

[burgertime]

I don't think it's done that great at this range. The GFS was actually all over the place with last week's storm until the days before. Granted, most models were like that, so I won't count it too much against the GFS. But the GFS was consistent in showing a storm for a while too before dropping it. So what coup has it scored at this range?

It was actually all over the place until the day of really. The thing that guy is not taking into account is that this is the first storm IIRC that almost all the models have agreed somewhat on for multiple runs this winter. As Brad at WCNC pointed out a few weeks ago these are for guidance in the forecast so at this juncture it's giving hints that we should be a little bit excited.

[WidreMann]

The 12z GFS looks a lot like the Euro at 84, especially at the surface. Notable difference is weaker, positively-tilted s/w a little further north and east. Could the Euro's bias of holding things back in the SW be at play here?

[burgertime]

Uggg... losing all it's strength at around 108...looks very similar to the 6z GFS but a tad south.

[Weather Czar]

The 12z GFS looks a lot like the Euro at 84, especially at the surface. Notable difference is weaker, positively-tilted s/w a little further north and east. Could the Euro's bias of holding things back in the SW be at play here?

Could be, But he Ukie and CMC are in agreement. and The GFS ensembles too.

[eyewall]

Surface low in the Arklatex at 96.

[FoothillsNC]

at 96 and 108, the reason the GFS diverges with the EUro is the northern Plains s/w and the lack of the strong PNA out west. The Dakotas shortwave is going to kick this southern wave and shear it it looks like. Still along and north of 40 has the best shot with this . The HP stays in Canada, some damming shown and an inverted trough in the Ohio Valley /Ky, but overall this is more north than the Euro, because the handling of the ridge out west.

The models start off the same through 72 hours, so I don't know which to trust beyond that hour, it all depends on the ridging in western Canada. We need it.

[WidreMann]

Uggg... losing all it's strength at around 108...looks very similar to the 6z GFS but a tad south.

To be fair, the Euro opens up the wave over the plains in the same time frame.

[El Kabong]

I know my area (central Georgia) is likely out of the game for anything significant, but I have an older brother up in northwest Georgia (Rome) who is an absolute weather geek and snow lover. He's definitely in the game at this point. We weren't planning on making a road trip until after the first of the year, but we might have to go to plan B if the evolution of this system holds true! Let me echo what some of the other posters have said in regards to the great insight shared by some of the pro mets (Foothills, Eyewall, Raleigh, Cheez, etc.) as well as several of the non-pros who chime in with some excellent comments. The server may indeed crash if the models stick to their guns! A snowstorm in the South is amazing enough, but the potential of a White Christmas is almost too good to be true! Hope a lot of you receive a well-deserved dumping for Christmas!

[snowlover91]

Sorry man, not trying to upset you. Just thought this was a place you could share thoughts on upcoming storms.

Gfs trend looks good as of 12z and model consensus and trend today is further south. Threat for a white Christmas, at least for some, appears to be gettin better.

[WidreMann]

at 96 and 108, the reason the GFS diverges with the EUro is the northern Plains s/w and the lack of the strong PNA out west. The Dakotas shortwave is going to kick this southern wave and shear it it looks like. Still along and north of 40 has the best shot with this . The HP stays in Canada, some damming shown and an inverted trough in the Ohio Valley /Ky, but overall this is more north than the Euro, because the handling of the ridge out west.

The models start off the same through 72 hours, so I don't know which to trust beyond that hour, it all depends on the ridging in western Canada. We need it.

It still looks better than 00z. Not by a whole lot, but it's moving in the right direction. 500mb looks considerably different from 00z to 12z. Who knows what that's going to mean. I want consistency, dammit!

[WidreMann]

Sorry man, not trying to upset you. Just thought this was a place you could share thoughts on upcoming storms.

Nobody said you can't do that. That doesn't mean I can't call you out on invalid observations or flaws in reasoning.

[jlewis1111]

Overall great trends compared to yday at this time.....

[snowlover91]

Nobody said you can't do that. That doesn't mean I can't call you out on invalid observations or flaws in reasoning.

Lol true. I'm just waiting for the data to get sampled, that should help nail things down. As you just said the consistency isn't quite there although the consensus looks good and shows a further south trend, which is encouraging. Id love for it to hammer the south and then somehow miss the whole NE but I don't think that will happen lol.

[FoothillsNC]

I take this as good news probably, the most important thing right now is that the trough come ashore very low latitude out west. The split flow and ridging in W. Canada probably won't be modeled right yet, but the ECMWF might be handling it better, since it has detached the western trough completely, and all models do that, so that looks reasonable. Plus, the trend here is the most important thing to watch. The only reason the GFS didn't make a huge snowfall qpf producer is that it got kicked east too quickly thanks to the northern wave coming in too fast, and that happens because of the lack of the tall PNA at 72 to 96 hours. We'll see if the euro holds its ground.

[snowdevil]

When does the Euro come out again?

[WidreMann]

I take this as good news probably, the most important thing right now is that the trough come ashore very low latitude out west. The split flow and ridging in W. Canada probably won't be modeled right yet, but the ECMWF might be handling it better, since it has detached the western trough completely, and all models do that, so that looks reasonable. Plus, the trend here is the most important thing to watch. The only reason the GFS didn't make a huge snowfall qpf producer is that it got kicked east too quickly thanks to the northern wave coming in too fast, and that happens because of the lack of the tall PNA at 72 to 96 hours. We'll see if the euro holds its ground.

Even so, it's slower with the southern stream system. At 120, the 00z had the low about to go off the coast, while the 12z has it in SC. Only a hundred to two hundred miles, but it's still something. 500mb also looks slower.

[chapelhillwx]

When does the Euro come out again?

2:00ish.

[eyewall]

One thing I have noticed so far this season is the systems we have had have been faster then that models have progged in terms of arrival time. Obviously every situation is different but something to consider here as well. This is especially the case if we are trying to time northern and southern stream energy for phasing potential.

[POWERSTROKE]

I don't think it's done that great at this range. The GFS was actually all over the place with last week's storm until the days before. Granted, most models were like that, so I won't count it too much against the GFS. But the GFS was consistent in showing a storm for a while too before dropping it. So what coup has it scored at this range?

I am not a GFS fan but right after thanksgiving it did show snow here on Christmas and it was 300 hrs away and now it is showing it still

[bingcrosbyb]

126 HR on 12z GFS. Look at 500mb.