Christmas Storm

[buckeyefan1]

That would be a good track for KCAE, but I believe you guys might be on the edge with that track.

We are right on the edge...the line runs at the top of Lex/Rich counties

[DopplerWx]

We are right on the edge...the line runs at the top of Lex/Rich counties

How does northern SC do? Well above the line?

[Shawn]

We are right on the edge...the line runs at the top of Lex/Rich counties

Thanks guys!

[snowlover91]

Unfortunately, even though the euro shows such a good solution and I'd I've for it to verify, the GFS seems to be handling storms the best right now. The last storm we had the gfs nailed it for most of the state, from the placement of the 850mb temps to the track and amount of qpf, although it was a little too wet. I'd rather wait until Wednesday when the energy is onshore and able to be sampled, however my fear right now is that the solutions looks great but will undoubtedly change quite a bit. Storms always look great at 4-6 day range but then seem to trend too far north or too far south and suppressed. Maybe this one will be different, the 1035+mb high is encouraging though. We will see I guess but I won't get excited unless the gfs shows the same solution at 00z Wednesday as the euro showed today.

[Shawn]

Unfortunately, even though the euro shows such a good solution and I'd I've for it to verify, the GFS seems to be handling storms the best right now. The last storm we had the gfs nailed it for most of the state, from the placement of the 850mb temps to the track and amount of qpf, although it was a little too wet. I'd rather wait until Wednesday when the energy is onshore and able to be sampled, however my fear right now is that the solutions looks great but will undoubtedly change quite a bit. Storms always look great at 4-6 day range but then seem to trend too far north or too far south and suppressed. Maybe this one will be different, the 1035+mb high is encouraging though. We will see I guess but I won't get excited unless the gfs shows the same solution at 00z Wednesday as the euro showed today.

I think everyone's confidence is trending higher because of all the foreign model's solutions and the GFS is an outlier. The NAM just trended southward also. I favor your opinion about mid-week though. Not having a system on-shore without a lot of data will definitely make the guidance change as we get closer!

[FoothillsNC]

at48 hour, the GFS is just offshore southern Cal. with the s/w. Doesn't look as far south as the Euro at that time though, but probably furthern than its 00z.

[DLI4SCwx]

We are right on the edge...the line runs at the top of Lex/Rich counties

I just knew it too! lol So close, yet so far away as it seems for us here. Hopefully the trend continues in the right direction.

[Weather Czar]

It's farther south and slower.

[Shawn]

I just knew it too! lol So close, yet so far away as it seems for us here. Hopefully the trend continues in the right direction.

I just want the storm to turn into a monster, give the panhandle snow, ga, sc, ride up the coast and bomb to give all of NC snow and so forth!

[buckeyefan1]

How does northern SC do? Well above the line?

Line below Greenwood to Blythewood to Lugoff to Florence would be rain

[jlewis1111]

It's farther south and slower.

just like the euro

[WidreMann]

Unfortunately, even though the euro shows such a good solution and I'd I've for it to verify, the GFS seems to be handling storms the best right now. The last storm we had the gfs nailed it for most of the state, from the placement of the 850mb temps to the track and amount of qpf, although it was a little too wet. I'd rather wait until Wednesday when the energy is onshore and able to be sampled, however my fear right now is that the solutions looks great but will undoubtedly change quite a bit. Storms always look great at 4-6 day range but then seem to trend too far north or too far south and suppressed. Maybe this one will be different, the 1035+mb high is encouraging though. We will see I guess but I won't get excited unless the gfs shows the same solution at 00z Wednesday as the euro showed today.

Faulty reasoning with regard to trusting models. They aren't people. Just because the GFS has been doing well recently doesn't mean it will continue to do so, unless the pattern is substantially the same. The models have biases which manifest in certain patterns and not in others. The pattern for this week is different from the pattern for last week. We'll actually have a PNA and actually have a southern stream and actually have a 50/50 low in some capacity. That's considerably different from what we had last weekend where we had a pretty awful setup, to be honest. Why should the GFS perform just as well in a different pattern when we know the models are never consistently good? It's unreasonable to expect that just based on its performance last week. Better would be to look at how it has performed in similar patterns in the past.

[DLI4SCwx]

I just want the storm to turn into a monster, give the panhandle snow, ga, sc, ride up the coast and bomb to give all of NC snow and so forth!

I'm feelin ya on that Shawn. I'd love for that to happen too! Get everyone in on a memorable white Christmas time event.

[FoothillsNC]

at 54 and 60, its detached from the main trough and is pretty far south, matches Euro nicely. Located near Cal/Baja border. PNA ridge in British Columbia is amplifying into a beautiful monster. This should keep our southern shortwave suppressed into the 4 corners region. Good sign!

[snowlover91]

I think everyone's confidence is trending higher because of all the foreign model's solutions and the GFS is an outlier. The NAM just trended southward also. I favor your opinion about mid-week though. Not having a system on-shore without a lot of data will definitely make the guidance change as we get closer!

Well the trend is definitely good, but how do we know the models won't trend back north tomorrow? Sunday the models looked bad, Saturday they were trending good. Today they look good again but we don't know what the next 2 days hold. IMO, I won't really put much stock into the models until the s/w and energy that will affect this system comes onshore and is able to be sampled. Keep in mind the NAM has a smaller grid sample size than the gfs as well so the gfs right now can sample some things that the NAM doesn't sample in it's grid. The gfs is the outlier, but it's also been the best performed this year. The euro has extreme swings every day it seems and has lost it's credibility for me. If it were me, I'd go with a Canadian/GFS blend as those two have consistently done the best so far from what I've observed. Just my 2 cents on it.

[Weather Czar]

Bring it home Robert!

[burgertime]

at 54 and 60, its detached from the main trough and is pretty far south, matches Euro nicely. Located near Cal/Baja border. PNA ridge in British Columbia is amplifying into a beautiful monster. This should keep our southern shortwave suppressed into the 4 corners region. Good sign!

You got our tails waggin' on this run.

[FoothillsNC]

Faulty reasoning with regard to trusting models. They aren't people. Just because the GFS has been doing well recently doesn't mean it will continue to do so, unless the pattern is substantially the same. The models have biases which manifest in certain patterns and not in others. The pattern for this week is different from the pattern for last week. We'll actually have a PNA and actually have a southern stream and actually have a 50/50 low in some capacity. That's considerably different from what we had last weekend where we had a pretty awful setup, to be honest. Why should the GFS perform just as well in a different pattern when we know the models are never consistently good? It's unreasonable to expect that just based on its performance last week. Better would be to look at how it has performed in similar patterns in the past.

excellent post! At 66 hour, in west central AZ

[StormSC]

I'm feelin ya on that Shawn. I'd love for that to happen too! Get everyone in on a memorable white Christmas time event.

I agree with this also! How awesome for us all if that would happen! It's been since '89 for me. Man that storm was unreal! The only reason I had a white Christmas that year is because it was so cold the snow hung around. To actually have snow on Christmas, priceless!

[Weather Czar]

You got our tails waggin' on this run.

Off the board Burger!

[burgertime]

Well the trend is definitely good, but how do we know the models won't trend back north tomorrow? Sunday the models looked bad, Saturday they were trending good. Today they look good again but we don't know what the next 2 days hold. IMO, I won't really put much stock into the models until the s/w and energy that will affect this system comes onshore and is able to be sampled. Keep in mind the NAM has a smaller grid sample size than the gfs as well so the gfs right now can sample some things that the NAM doesn't sample in it's grid. The gfs is the outlier, but it's also been the best performed this year. The euro has extreme swings every day it seems and has lost it's credibility for me. If it were me, I'd go with a Canadian/GFS blend as those two have consistently done the best so far from what I've observed. Just my 2 cents on it.

You might be right, but the thing to take home in all of this is the model consensus. With so many in agreement it's hard to ignore. Just speaking on last week the models were all over the place with each run and all in disagreement for the most part. No one has said it's a sure bet, it's just something to get excited about, and that's all.

[CaryWx]

Sounding like the 12z NAM, which means the GFS has trended south from the 6z run

[oconeexman]

at 54 and 60, its detached from the main trough and is pretty far south, matches Euro nicely. Located near Cal/Baja border. PNA ridge in British Columbia is amplifying into a beautiful monster. This should keep our southern shortwave suppressed into the 4 corners region. Good sign!

Come on in line GooFuS..you can do it. Worries me a little this far out though if we get a total consensus from all major models but I'll take it.

[tnweathernut]

Faulty reasoning with regard to trusting models. They aren't people. Just because the GFS has been doing well recently doesn't mean it will continue to do so, unless the pattern is substantially the same. The models have biases which manifest in certain patterns and not in others. The pattern for this week is different from the pattern for last week. We'll actually have a PNA and actually have a southern stream and actually have a 50/50 low in some capacity. That's considerably different from what we had last weekend where we had a pretty awful setup, to be honest. Why should the GFS perform just as well in a different pattern when we know the models are never consistently good? It's unreasonable to expect that just based on its performance last week. Better would be to look at how it has performed in similar patterns in the past.

Widre, your best post ever. Looks like it's about to close off at 66 in Az.

[FoothillsNC]

starting to look a little sheared at 78 hr in Nrn NM

[stormtracker]

Foothills, Ralieghwx check PMs

[snowlover91]

Faulty reasoning with regard to trusting models. They aren't people. Just because the GFS has been doing well recently doesn't mean it will continue to do so, unless the pattern is substantially the same. The models have biases which manifest in certain patterns and not in others. The pattern for this week is different from the pattern for last week. We'll actually have a PNA and actually have a southern stream and actually have a 50/50 low in some capacity. That's considerably different from what we had last weekend where we had a pretty awful setup, to be honest. Why should the GFS perform just as well in a different pattern when we know the models are never consistently good? It's unreasonable to expect that just based on its performance last week. Better would be to look at how it has performed in similar patterns in the past.

Of course this is a different set up, most of the storms this year have been different. From a clipper a few weeks back to this recent over running event to the storm in the gulf. They were different set ups, and the gfs did the best overall consistency wise and placement/track wise. Yes, it might not do well with this Christmas storm, but what's to say it won't? It's been the best model along with the Canadian, and I see no reason not to put my stock on it. And it does seem to be trending south which is good. However, like I said until the energy gets onshore models will continue to flip flop. The pattern does look great, but it's still 120-144 hours out and a whole lot can happen this far out, as we all know.

[eyewall]

I posted my forecast and discussion for this morning on my site. I am not fully touching the Christmas storm yet being this far out but it is talked about a little bit.

[jlewis1111]

starting to look a little sheared at 78 hr in Nrn NM

Is that good for more of a southern route

[WeatherNC]

at 54 and 60, its detached from the main trough and is pretty far south, matches Euro nicely. Located near Cal/Baja border. PNA ridge in British Columbia is amplifying into a beautiful monster. This should keep our southern shortwave suppressed into the 4 corners region. Good sign!

Graphic comparing the 0z ECMWF, 09z SREF, and 12z NAM, all with a time-stamp valid 0z Friday. Note the HP already wedging into the Apps, that will force the system under it. Also note the elongated area of lp from OK all the way down to Mexico, this should allow for more congealing to the south, like the 0z ECMWF shows in later panels. Given two of these are regional models, the agreement with big brother is excellent at this range.