Christmas Storm

[Weather Czar]

The Cold Rain Christmas storm is still very much on the table. I know the focus has been on today's event, as it should be, but the 0Z GFS, 0Z Euro, and 0Z Canadian all have either the storm or the potential for it. GFS and Euro look to move the LP just a bit too far north for wintry weather for most, although the GFS does appear to give some backside snows (I can't tell about the Euro). The CMC squashes the shortwave, but it does have a nice 1036 HP in the Plains. I'll post a map or two later when I'm at my other computer, but there is definitely potential here to see *some* wintry weather on or around Christmas. The period after shows a bit of promise as well.

I'm on my phone so I can't post any maps. Check out the ensemble means on Allan's site. Will check back later after the 12z runs. Taking the kids to see yogi bear.

[NCSNOW]

I'm on my phone so I can't post any maps. Check out the ensemble means on Allan's site. Will check back later after the 12z runs. Taking the kids to see yogi bear.

Definetly cold enough. Next frame is much colder as storm has passed us by. Rather see that puppy track across Al/MS instead of TN. be fun to watch

[POWERSTROKE]

Cold Rain is probably the best guarantee I have heard yet Rather have nothing than Rain on Christmas Day

[Cold Rain]

So the 12Z GFS still has the storm and still indicates the potential for some backside snow for some locations. Here's the 174 0Z Surface map, valid 6Z 12/25. You'll see LP over northern NC and an elongated 1028 mb HP back west out in the Plains:

Here's the 180 0Z Surface map, valid 12Z 12/25. LP is 1000 mb and is now off the VA coast, moving North and the 1028 elongated HP still back over the Plains:

Now, here's the 162 12Z Surface map, valid 6Z 12/25. LP has moved in a little faster, now just off the Northern NC coast. But now we have a stronger HP moving into the Plains at 1032 mb:

And here's the 168 12Z Surface map, valid 12Z 12/25. LP is much deeper at 992 mb and is located off the VA coast. HP is still at 1032 mb, elongated N/S and is still positioned over the Plains:

We'll want to watch to see if the ridging over the Rockies pops a bit more, allowing the SW to dig farther south. We'll also want to continue to watch the evolution of HP over the Plains. I am encouraged that that feature is there. We can work on the storm track later. The players continue to be on the field, though, and that's the first order of business to having something to track.

[strongwxnc]

Thanks for the update.

For me it is on to the next one. I got not even a rain drop this morning!!

[burrel2]

The 00z Canadian was really supressed for this storm. It was very close to showing a good SE snowstorm. I've got the 12z Canadian out to 144hrs and it has a similar look to it. If we can get that piece of pacific energy to not phase with the northern stream over the plains.. I think there's a chance it could drop down far enough to give as a snowfall. Atleast there's a chance anyways....

[Cold Rain]

I'm on my phone so I can't post any maps. Check out the ensemble means on Allan's site. Will check back later after the 12z runs. Taking the kids to see yogi bear.

I'll try to post some 12Z ensembles later. Taking the kids to see Yogi sounds like fun. I took my son to see Santa the other day. He loved it!

[Cold Rain]

Thanks for the update.

For me it is on to the next one. I got not even a rain drop this morning!!

You bet. Hopefully, we'll get a couple of these SWs to cooperate with us. The Christmas storm is not all that far off, really. We'll see.

[Cold Rain]

The 00z Canadian was really supressed for this storm. It was very close to showing a good SE snowstorm. I've got the 12z Canadian out to 144hrs and it has a similar look to it. If we can get that piece of pacific energy to not phase with the northern stream over the plains.. I think there's a chance it could drop down far enough to give as a snowfall. Atleast there's a chance anyways....

I haven't seen the 12Z Canadian yet. But it's solution as you describe it just goes to show that there's still lots of potential!

[WeatherNC]

12z ECMWF is going to destroy someone, but we have been down this road before...

[tarheelwx]

12z ECMWF is going to destroy someone, but we have been down this road before...

Post on main board says hp nosing down @ 144 and then a lp over eastern SC @ 168. Sounds nice.

TW

Just saw @ 168. Big 1039 hp moving down from central canada while a 1008 lp is over rockingham NC. 0 850 line over the nc/va border. I'd say at this point maybe an ice or ice to snow for some of the norther NC areas. Low supposedly then slides off the coast.

TW

[WeatherNC]

Post on main board says hp nosing down @ 144 and then a lp over eastern SC @ 168. Sounds nice.

TW

hard to tell with only the 24 hr panels, but suppression could be a good thing for us, a great thing actually

180 HRS LOW FLIES OFF NC COAST 500 Low does NOT close off

[BullCityWx]

Looks like a 40 degree rain for my part of NC as it's modeled.

[tarheelwx]

Looks like a 40 degree rain for my part of NC as it's modeled.

I don't have the maps. Can you give a synopsis of 144-192 of the euro? Any cad @ 144?

Thanks

TW

[Wow]

hard to tell with only the 24 hr panels, but suppression could be a good thing for us, a great thing actually

it would be. this isn't a setup where the whole east coast can cash in. either it's suppressed long enough to allow a track far south enough to put down some snow here or it's Miller B time. The western ridge is not in an ideal location.

[BullCityWx]

I don't have the maps. Can you give a synopsis of 144-192 of the euro? Any cad @ 144?

Thanks

TW

I don't have maps but I do have Extracted data off the euro. GSO would be sn or ip as would RDU.

[BullCityWx]

it would be. this isn't a setup where the whole east coast can cash in. either it's suppressed long enough to allow a track far south enough to put down some snow here or it's Miller B time. The western ridge is not in an ideal location.

Given the la Nina, I'd imagine the safe money is on a miller b.

[HKY_WX]

I like the look of the HP. Going to be another fun one to track.

[HKY_WX]

One difference b/n this and a normal miller b from the northern branch, is it phases with a stj wave over southern tx/northern mx. That would pull this storm south a bit.

[tarheelwx]

Anybody got qpf?

TW

[BullCityWx]

Anybody got qpf?

TW

.36 for gso

[rosie]

25-Dec High: 46°F RealFeel™: 37 Periods of rain mixing with snow. Winds from the N at 11 mph. Night Low: 18°F RealFeel™: 6 Mostly cloudy and colder with a couple of flurries. Winds from the NW at 11 mph.

A fantasy from Accu.

[tarheelwx]

.36 for gso

Thanks. I assume that is for the entire event which would be pretty light.

TW

[BullCityWx]

Thanks. I assume that is for the entire event which would be pretty light.

TW

It's through 180...not sure about past that frame.

[BIG FROSTY]

Here's what the euro gives me for Christmas !

2mm 850 6 hp QPF

FRI 12Z 24-DEC -2.5 -1.2 0.01

FRI 18Z 24-DEC 3.7 -1.7 0.04

SAT 00Z 25-DEC 1.2 -2.8 0.07

SAT 06Z 25-DEC 1.1 0.2 0.12

SAT 12Z 25-DEC 1.2 -0.6 0.05

[strongwxnc]

Track it up folks!

[Cold Rain]

GFS Ensemble mean is farther south with the storm, keeping 850s AOB 0 across the northern half of NC.

[BIG FROSTY]

So much for the Tuesday clipper snow. And Christmas snow too.

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW

AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID

20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING

PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN

THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.

.CHRISTMAS DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING

PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S

[Lookout]

Looks like a 40 degree rain for my part of NC as it's modeled.

I'm getting a little tired of having all this cold with nothing to really to show for it. A little freezing rain, sleet and flurries is all I've managed to get.

[BullCityWx]

I'm getting a little tired of having all this cold with nothing to really to show for it. A little freezing rain, sleet, and flurries is all I've managed to get.

Sounds about like my part of Nc...lol.