DLI4SCwx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Verbatim it's just a flurry if anything at all after 144 for the midlands as far as qpf. After 144 the only folks with any qpf is NC and the western portion of SC. Thanks for the information, appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Since it's Christmas time, I'm imagining Foothills play by play in the voice of Burl Ives,,,,, haha. I'd picture myself as the prospector yukon Cornelius, and we're fighting the big bumble. At 84, s/w very in tact in Tex/Ok panhandle, snow all over the central to n. plains, and more importantly a strong vortex stays put off the MidAtlantic to Northeast coast, so thats our deflector. This isn't as far south as the Euro, but a step in that direction for sure. Most important thing is how far south its coming into the West Coast. Its down there. I'd bet the NAM corrects itself further south, closer to the Euro. Also, s/w in SD is about to phase with it, probably over eastern Kansas in the next 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Do they initialize the models with the I-40 snow wall parameter? Actually so far so good it seems in the runs. Obviously the Euro was a good sign overnight but as Foothills said there is a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 haha. I'd picture myself as the prospector yukon Cornelius, and we're fighting the big bumble. At 84, s/w very in tact in Tex/Ok panhandle, snow all over the central to n. plains, and more importantly a strong vortex stays put off the MidAtlantic to Northeast coast, so thats our deflector. This isn't as far south as the Euro, but a step in that direction for sure. Most important thing is how far south its coming into the West Coast. Its down there. I'd bet the NAM corrects itself further south, closer to the Euro. Also, s/w in SD is about to phase with it, probably over eastern Kansas in the next 12 hours. Isn't phasing in eastern Kansas a little soon and north for most in the SE? Preferably isn't somewhere around Memphis a better phase location? Just asking the novice question. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 So if that coast-to-coast latitude [entry/exit] theory holds, the NAM is our friend right now, correct? Yes. I am thinking the s/w coming into Cal. turns into a bowling ball upper low , similar to Feb 2004, I recall a panel in the Euro last night had it closed off as well. The reason being, the extreme amplification of the western Canada ridge that suddenly takes shape as the PDO in pacific seperates from this wave, causing a "whiplash" (thats how upper lows form quickly) So picture someeone holding a garden hose, suddenly throws it up to make a wave, then back down quickly, and what your left with in a fluid like the atmoshphere , is a "rolliing ball", and thats what this feature could become. As it rolls due east, the strong PNA ridge out west has energy rotating down its front side in the Dakotas, that is also on a very fast southeast bound track, and should get absorbed into our upper low somehwere in Kansas, Mo or Arkansas or western Tenn. Hard to say where yet, but if and when that happens, I think this is going to be a snowstorm for the ages under and along the north shield of that track. This is why we're hoping for the low road, it would deliver a once in 20 year snowfall for some places in the Deep South I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 My morning thoughts on the Christmas potential http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/mostly-dry-weather-this-week-but-a-chance-of-rain-or-snow-for-christmas-eve-day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Comparison of vorticities Euro vs. NAM. Nam a bit faster and further north, but trending in the right direction. Euro valid 0z 12/24: NAM valid same time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Comparison of vorticities Euro vs. NAM. Nam a bit faster and further north, but trending in the right direction. Euro valid 0z 12/24: Amazing similarity for 84 really. The nam is just 200 miles or so further north, in the grand scheme of things, thats close! We'll see if the GFS starts its southern trend soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The operational Euro is the furthest south and slowest of all the models and ensemble members I have seen. Most of the Euro ensemble members are quicker and dont dig quite as much as the op ECMWF. The operational GFS though is much further north than the other guidance and a good number of it's ensemble members. As I said in my discusison above, I like a track right now similar to the GGEm, UKMET, and ECMWF ensemble mean through northern Al/GA/MS into central SC and then along the eastern NC coast. This would be a really nice event for TN/western and central NC, KY, southern Va, with upstate SC, northern AL/GA/MS, and eastern NC away from the coast on the border of rain or snow. As a weenie I hope we keep seeing a southern trend, for the RDU area, the best track would be through central Al/MS/GA into southern SC and then off the coast of Charleston and Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Amazing similarity for 84 really. The nam is just 200 miles or so further north, in the grand scheme of things, thats close! We'll see if the GFS starts its southern trend soon. Not only that, but it looks pretty much the same everywhere else on the map too, including the vortexes in NE and NW Canada. That better damn well be a sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Amazing similarity for 84 really. The nam is just 200 miles or so further north, in the grand scheme of things, thats close! We'll see if the GFS starts its southern trend soon. 12z NAM looks to solution out there in between the 0z Euro and 06z GFS from what I'm reading. For models that's fairly decent coalescence I take it right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 NAM looks pretty good! The trend is our friend! BTW Thanks Foothills for the play-by-play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 You know there is a shot when people who pay little attention to weather ask you about it at work. Word is getting around. Come Thursday if this storm is still on the table our forum is going to be packed and testing that new server. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Amazing similarity for 84 really. The nam is just 200 miles or so further north, in the grand scheme of things, thats close! We'll see if the GFS starts its southern trend soon. AWESOME disco Robert, Matthew and Allan! Our best setup in a long time this far out. Here's to good trends and your wealth of knowledge...I really appreciate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Verbatim it's just a flurry if anything at all after 144 for the midlands as far as qpf. After 144 the only folks with any qpf is NC and the western portion of SC. Thanks for the info, appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Foothills, as usual your thoughts are very appreciated and informative. I have learned a lot from your posts and appreciate it! I have been jumping back and forther from the midwest forum to the southeast and the analysis is wildly different there than here. A lot of wishcasting is going on there to the point I've just about decided to stay here and figure out what weather I'll get on my trip via the southeast disco. Just as predicted all hopes of getting any work done so far has been nill. Keep up the great disco folks! I'll be flying into STL late Thursday night from Cincinnati and am beginning to have fears of me living out a real life Planes, Tranes, and Automobiles getting stuck in Cinci and having to find a way to get to STL. Fun times for travelers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 So GFS is the next long range soothsayer I take it? SREF and RGEM won't tell us much I'm guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 CAE...like the exclamation point.. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE CHRISTMAS DAY FORECAST. STORMY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EAST COAST! UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING WHILE CROSSING THE CENTRAL U.S. FRIDAY MOVING EASTWARD FOR THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TIMING STILL AN ISSUE. GFS HAS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST BY CHRISTMAS MORNING. ECMWF SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH...WITH ITS LOW CENTER OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE CHRISTMAS MORNING. ENSEMBLE POPS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOW HIGH STANDARD DEVIATION. SO... WILL KEEP ONGOING FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY AND COOLER FOR SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 AWESOME disco Robert, Matthew and Allan! Our best setup in a long time this far out. Here's to good trends and your wealth of knowledge...I really appreciate it! +1! thanks to all the Mets. it really makes this site special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Echo the thanks for all the informative updates here. Appreciate the patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 CAE...like the exclamation point.. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE CHRISTMAS DAY FORECAST. STORMY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EAST COAST! UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING WHILE CROSSING THE CENTRAL U.S. FRIDAY MOVING EASTWARD FOR THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TIMING STILL AN ISSUE. GFS HAS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST BY CHRISTMAS MORNING. ECMWF SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH...WITH ITS LOW CENTER OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE CHRISTMAS MORNING. ENSEMBLE POPS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOW HIGH STANDARD DEVIATION. SO... WILL KEEP ONGOING FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY AND COOLER FOR SUNDAY. I like it too! With our luck we'll end up with 33 and rain here! lol I just hope it all comes to fruition for all of us here in the SE. You being from Ohio, i'm sure you've seen a white Christmas or two. I never have and would love to see that, just once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Have to wonder if Robert, Matthew, Allan et al, relish a potential 'working holiday' like Christmas though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Man just read the disco from last night after I went to bed @ Robert, you called it the Euro came in huge. Also Jeremy, if me not following the Euro gives us snow I won't look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Man just read the disco from last night after I went to bed @ Robert, you called it the Euro came in huge. Also Jeremy, if me not following the Euro gives us snow I won't look! See you on Sunday Burger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I like it too! With our luck we'll end up with 33 and rain here! lol I just hope it all comes to fruition for all of us here in the SE. You being from Ohio, i'm sure you've seen a white Christmas or two. I never have and would love to see that, just once. I have seen a couple white Christmas....it's been well over 25 yrs since I've seen snow in December..lol I do wish everyone could see a White Christmas at least once It's rare to get any snowfall here in the south during the winter, but there is just something special about snow on Christmas Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 GFS is up and runnin.... let's see where she goes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Thanks for all the thoughts,opinions and informative discussion overnight and this morning. Whether or not this ends up playing out, it's always just a pleasure to hang out here and read these posts. I wonder at times how many of you realize how educational your comments are to those of us not in your field of expertise. I, for one, really appreciate the time many of you take to put your thoughts into cyber-ink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 GFS is up and runnin.... let's see where she goes! I don't have access to the Euro, but wouldn't KCAE's discussion of it tracking across the FL panhandle possibly give us something even into Central SC? Or is the precip just not there on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I don't have access to the Euro, but wouldn't KCAE's discussion of it tracking across the FL panhandle possibly give us something even into Central SC? Or is the precip just not there on the Euro? That would be a good track for KCAE, but I believe you guys might be on the edge with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 looking almost identical to 6z out to 30 on the GFS...looks like this is going to be the battle of the Euro vs. GFS. Let's see where she goes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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