Christmas Storm

[Cold Rain]

I vote that your snow shields be brought down in a few days.

Can you make the call as to have your workers begin preparations for this

If it's looking good by 12Z Wed., we will make preparations to lower shields.

[shaggy]

0z EC ens mean is a little offshore Shaggy, so it's saying there's a chance...

HPC from 8am this morning gives me a little hope.

SOUTH AND EAST...

THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOW/MORE CLOSED THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC

GUIDANCE WITH ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN

PLAINS...WITH LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF THE OVERALL 00Z GLOBAL

ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING ITS SOLUTION...IMPLYING IT IS TOO

SLOW. TELECONNECTIONS FARTHER NORTH IMPLY STRONGER ENERGY SHOULD

BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY...WHICH SHOULD

ABSORB THE SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY AS IT MOVES INTO THE

PLAINS/MIDWEST. EITHER WAY...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE

THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OR TENNESSEE

VALLEY OFFSHORE THE VIRGINIA CAPES. THE BIGGER QUESTION IS HOW

CLOSE TO THE COAST THIS CYCLONE WILL TRACK. THE ECMWF BECOMES THE

MOST NORTHWESTERLY OF THE GUIDANCE AT THE SURFACE...AND IF THIS

SURFACE LOW WERE MOVING UP THE EAST SIDE OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH

RATHER THAN A PROGRESSIVE CLOSED CYCLONE A MORE COASTAL TRACK FOR

NEW ENGLAND WOULD MAKE SENSE. SINCE THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE

THE CASE...AND THE 00Z ECMWF ALSO APPEARS TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS

CYCLONE IN CANADA...ITS CYCLONE TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST IS

PROBABLY TOO FAR NORTH/TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST. THE OTHER

GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS...MOVE THIS

SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM...A NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE/AREA

OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST...WHICH APPEARS

MORE LIKELY CONSIDERING THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. DUE TO

PREFERENCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...CHOSE

THE 00Z CANADIAN HERE...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF OR 00Z GEFS MEAN

ARE REASONABLE ALTERNATIVES. EITHER WAY...WINTER WEATHER SHOULD

SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE

VALLEY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AS WELL AS SNOW SHOWERS

UNDER THE BASE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND

NORTHEAST. THE IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST REMAINS

SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION MARK...BUT FOR THE TIME BEING...THE 00Z

ECMWF LOOKS LIKE A LOWER PROBABILITY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO.

[Wow]

0z Euro does have some tepid support from the UKMET and GGEM with SLP placement, though their tracks are a bit further north. More like a blend between GFS and Euro.

0z UKMET @ 120 hrs:

0z GGEM @ 120 hrs:

0z ECMWF @ 120 hrs:

0z GFS @ 120 hrs:

[NavarreDon]

Wow Things are getting a little exciteing in the SE! This is not from our area but some sage advice to live by in the next couple of days.

Sprinfield MO-NWS AFD:

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF INDICATE THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL

SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK AND STRUCTURE OF

THIS DISTURBANCE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE TWO

MODELS...AND MORE CHANGES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR.

GENERALLY AS A SHORTWAVE CARVES THROUGH A MEAN RIDGE...SUCH AS THIS

SITUATION...MODEL VARIABILITY IS HIGH. WE ALSO HAVE TO REALIZE THAT

THIS DISTURBANCE IS JUST NOW SHIFTING OFF THE SIBERIAN COAST...AND

STILL HAS A LONG HAUL ACROSS THE PACIFIC BEFORE REACHING THE UNITED

STATES MAINLAND LATER IN THE WEEK.ULTIMATELY THE STRUCTURE AND TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE IS STILL IN

QUESTION. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT AN EPISODE OF PRECIPITATION IS

BECOMING MORE LIKELY DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TIME

FRAME. IF THE WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION IN A SOUTHERLY

MANOR...THEN AN EPISODE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

WHILE A NORTHERN TRACK WOULD BRING THE OZARKS SOME SHOWERS AND

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM

AS WE CAREFULLY ANALYZE ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE WEEK

[BNAwx]

Here's to hoping Nashville and all points south and east cash in on this one! Someone mentioned January '88 and it does have that look to it. I just hope we don't have the run to run floppage that we had with the last system...

[bingcrosbyb]

06z GFS Ensemble positioning.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemblep12120.gif

[North Balti Zen]

Hey lyngo, I am "coming home" as it were to Nashville for Christmas. Living in Baltimore now, and usually a Mid-Atlantic regional denizen for these boards, but have been perusing this thread in hopes of getting a feel for timing and forecast for middle Tennessee. Supposed to be starting drive from Baltimore for Nashville evening on the 23rd. Other than this sub-forum and this thread, are there any other weather blogs specific to middle TN I should look at in planning the drive?

I will, of course, be lurking this thread to pick up whatever tidbits I can about the potential system. A quick glance at the weather pages for the Nashville TV stations was, not surprisingly, useless this far out. And probably useless close in too...

---Aaron

[burgertime]

I'm curious to see the panel after hr 144 on the Euro. The freezing line appears to be just west of my area. I'm wondering how areas of the midlands of SC will do in this scenario. Do the heights crash rather quickly? Does that low strengthen once it's off the coast? If anyone is privy to the next hour set after hr144, would you please tell me what happens. Thanks

Verbatim it's just a flurry if anything at all after 144 for the midlands as far as qpf. After 144 the only folks with any qpf is NC and the western portion of SC.

[BNAwx]

Hey lyngo, I am "coming home" as it were to Nashville for Christmas. Living in Baltimore now, and usually a Mid-Atlantic regional denizen for these boards, but have been perusing this thread in hopes of getting a feel for timing and forecast for middle Tennessee. Supposed to be starting drive from Baltimore for Nashville evening on the 23rd. Other than this sub-forum and this thread, are there any other weather blogs specific to middle TN I should look at in planning the drive?

I will, of course, be lurking this thread to pick up whatever tidbits I can about the potential system. A quick glance at the weather pages for the Nashville TV stations was, not surprisingly, useless this far out. And probably useless close in too...

---Aaron

I sent you a PM..

[EmersonGA]

When Mr Bob or Cheeznado says something positive then I will get excited. Jan 88 would be nice. I got buried.

[Brick Tamland]

Matthew East's blog this morning is a great read and video. Really looks like most of the models at this time are giving us some love.

http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/

[UpStateCAD]

I really do not like seeing a "good" solution for us in the SE five days out. How many times do the models "lock in" in this time range. I am excited to see it however I have a very uneasy feeling in the pit of my gut that tells me no way this will verify by the time Saturday rolls around. I HOPE LIKE HECK I"M WRONG.

[kgar2121]

someone wake brick up

edit: nevermind! haha! good morning!

[bingcrosbyb]

When Mr Bob or Cheeznado says something positive then I will get excited. Jan 88 would be nice. I got buried.

I'm thinking January '88 repeat. But with Christmas bonus.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/hun/stormsurveys/jan1988snow/sdaccummap.jpg

[FoothillsNC]

12Z NAM at 48 is further south in California. My premise is that if the shortwave breaks off the Main West coast trough at a southerly location like southern CAL, then its better for us in the east. Euro had it around srn Cal/Baja border.

[dalejr88]

12Z NAM at 48 is further south in California. My premise is that if the shortwave breaks off the Main West coast trough at a southerly location like southern CAL, then its better for us in the east. Euro had it around srn Cal/Baja border.

Thanks Foothills for all input late last nite. It was well worth staying up for.

[tnweathernut]

12Z NAM at 48 is further south in California. My premise is that if the shortwave breaks off the Main West coast trough at a southerly location like southern CAL, then its better for us in the east. Euro had it around srn Cal/Baja border.

Robert,

Agree 100%. It's fun to look at verbatim solutions this far out (0Z Euro), however.......................what we should really be keying on is what is happening around the west coast for days 2/3 and the strength of the blocking. This should translate downstream. Many options still on the table, however there is growing consensus for a more southerly track. It's nice to have the Euro say yes once (even if it was just one run). It's not like it didn't have some agreement from other models, just not as extreme.

[bingcrosbyb]

12Z NAM at 48 is further south in California. My premise is that if the shortwave breaks off the Main West coast trough at a southerly location like southern CAL, then its better for us in the east. Euro had it around srn Cal/Baja border.

1036mb sliding down the dakotas @ 48HR as well.

[Weather Czar]

Nam is really digging in the southwest.

[bingcrosbyb]

Holy Cow. NAM digging with a shovel out in the west! @ 54

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_500_054l.gif

[Weather Czar]

It's hard to tell this early but this could be a good run.

[FoothillsNC]

at 60, the NAM is like the Euro with its southern Cal trough. Much futher south than yesterday's models showed. at 66, 1036 arctic high in North Dakota. If we can get the low to take the low road , per euro, I think we'll be ok. LONG ways to go though.

[FoothillsNC]

central/north Central AZ at 72.

[Jet Stream Rider]

central/north Central AZ at 72.

Yeah! Stay south stay south!

The problem with the Saturday event to my reckoning is that we didn't have a lp along the GOM to hang our hat on. Hopefully this one will be a differnt story.

[FoothillsNC]

n. central New Mexico at 78. Rain breaking out in Texas, with snow in the Rockies and all the High Plains. the only reason I'm interested in the NAM is to see how it matches the Euro, and so far its a dead on match really. Remarkable, for the nam.Should say its trended toward the ECMWF, still not quite as far south as it (euro was west Tex.)

[CaryWx]

Hope the EURO comes in at 12z with the same story. Would solidify things with all the additional supporting models seemingly giving more now towards this solution.

Still, we got taken for a ride last week with a 48-60hr show by that cagey dame.

[BNAwx]

Since it's Christmas time, I'm imagining Foothills play by play in the voice of Burl Ives,,,,,

[Shawn]

These next few days are going to be quite interesting.

[beanskip]

Remember the old EE rule?

n. central New Mexico at 78. Rain breaking out in Texas, with snow in the Rockies and all the High Plains. the only reason I'm interested in the NAM is to see how it matches the Euro, and so far its a dead on match really. Remarkable, for the nam.Should say its trended toward the ECMWF, still not quite as far south as it (euro was west Tex.)

[CaryWx]

So if that coast-to-coast latitude [entry/exit] theory holds, the NAM is our friend right now, correct?