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Christmas Storm


Cold Rain

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Hmmm: Well I'm glad I got some sleep last night, 'cause if I had stayed up for that run, I think I'd still be up!

For us folks living on the fringe of what that storm could be, please excuse the fervent desire to nudge it about 50-75 miles further offshore.. still plenty for everyone and you wouldn't have to listen to us whining!

Quick question, though: since this is the Euro, not weather porn, do we call it météo fantaisie?

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HPC

HPC: USED THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR

DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THIS RUN OF THE DETERMINISTIC EURO HAS GOOD

SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST UKMET WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE

SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC WAVE CROSSING THE EASTERN STATES DURING THE

PERIOD. THE TRACK IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE…BUT IS

WITHIN THE ENVELOPE OF REMARKABLY WELL CLUSTERED DETERMINISTIC

MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS. THE

SUPPRESSED TRACK IS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE DICEY CHANCE THAT

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SPLIT FLOW WILL PHASE AT JUST THE RIGHT

TIME AND TRAVERSE MOST OF THE NATION AS SUCH. THE EURO HAS

REASONABLE SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLES FOR THE HANDLING OF THE FLOW

COMING INTO THE WEST COAST AS WELL UNDER THE BLOCK DOWNSTREAM :snowman:

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Well I can't say i'm thrilled about the low track being this close to the coast for my chances here in eastern NC. Usually a low that close kills us but its good to see the potential for you guys out west to get hammered. Hope the models have this one mostly right already and that we see a big storm for some of the SE crew.

0z EC ens mean is a little offshore Shaggy, so it's saying there's a chance...

00zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS144.gif

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I need some smelling salts. Think I'm about to faint. Its going negative tilt! in the southeast, rare! Snow everywhere from just north of ATL verbatim, Tenn, n Alabama, wstern SC most of NC except maybe southeast NC.

Thank you sir! :thumbsup:

My favorite post from last night's disco. :snowman:

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Wow @ the 00z Euro it just has the perfect track. That would be a good 6 inches for CLT.

Agree the Euro last night was just short of amazing..... I'll take it! That was the best model run for me because not only does it give CLT several inches of snow but it would give me 5-6" too since I'll be in Southern Illinois Friday. Let's see what the Euro says this afternoon, hopefully not just a hiccup.

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One run of Dr. No said "cash in your chips folks" I just hope the 12Z show is the same as the 00Z show, ya know!

Thanks to Robert for the PBP last night.

I have court in about 30 mins, or I would look at all the models and try to paint what they are saying right now.

This far out however, does have me worried..

Maybe Jeremy can talk to someone about making sure this happen as shown on the 00Z euro run..

Might be great times this week.

However, with the HPC thoughts (that WNC) posted and the idea of a split flow southern track across the bottom of the country...Also the fact that this is Robert's wheel house...

Good times this week.

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Any bets on when all the models drop this storm? I'd say we get a few more exciting runs through 18z tomorrow and then 00z we see the Great Backing Off. From Tuesday through Thursday, it'll be nothing or rain. Then on Friday, we'll see a glimmer of hope as the models try to bring it back, but alas, it is just a hiccup. End result: rain showers ending as some snow flurries Saturday night. Warm.

i said that two days ago. Just don't like it when its not a perfect track

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I'm curious to see the panel after hr 144 on the Euro. The freezing line appears to be just west of my area. I'm wondering how areas of the midlands of SC will do in this scenario. Do the heights crash rather quickly? Does that low strengthen once it's off the coast? If anyone is privy to the next hour set after hr144, would you please tell me what happens. Thanks

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Dealing with the GFS, this morning's 6z was a little colder. But still does not provide a lot of precip. It looks to spread some light snow across norther NC around mid-night Christmas Eve. Precip would then change over to ice or rain as the low passes and then back to snow by mid-night Christmas. But not a lot of precip....

So even the "bad" model is giving some hope....

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