Rankin5150 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 On another note (probably needs to be a separate thread), I cannot get over how the Op GFS just keeps showing the cold a coming and the opportunities for wintry wx down the road. I wonder when the blowtorch will hit? The cold keeps a comin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 By the looks of the Euro I might have to postpone my trip to S FL. by a day or two It's certainly encouraging but until we see agreement with other models it's fantasy IMO. The Euro's good, but not that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 By the looks of the Euro I might have to postpone my trip to S FL. by a day or two It's certainly encouraging but until we see agreement with other models it's fantasy IMO. The Euro's good, but not that good. Like the CMC and the Ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Hmmm: Well I'm glad I got some sleep last night, 'cause if I had stayed up for that run, I think I'd still be up! For us folks living on the fringe of what that storm could be, please excuse the fervent desire to nudge it about 50-75 miles further offshore.. still plenty for everyone and you wouldn't have to listen to us whining! Quick question, though: since this is the Euro, not weather porn, do we call it météo fantaisie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 HPC HPC: USED THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THIS RUN OF THE DETERMINISTIC EURO HAS GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST UKMET WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC WAVE CROSSING THE EASTERN STATES DURING THE PERIOD. THE TRACK IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE…BUT IS WITHIN THE ENVELOPE OF REMARKABLY WELL CLUSTERED DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS. THE SUPPRESSED TRACK IS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE DICEY CHANCE THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SPLIT FLOW WILL PHASE AT JUST THE RIGHT TIME AND TRAVERSE MOST OF THE NATION AS SUCH. THE EURO HAS REASONABLE SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLES FOR THE HANDLING OF THE FLOW COMING INTO THE WEST COAST AS WELL UNDER THE BLOCK DOWNSTREAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Like the CMC and the Ukie? When they're showing a major snowfall for me (which by the looks of it the Euro is) then I'll be satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 When they're showing a major snowfall for me (which by the looks of it the Euro is) then I'll be satisfied. They are showing a southern track too. The Ukmet has had the southern track the whole time. Jma too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I must say I an cautiously optimistic for a few flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Euro ensembel mean and GGEM ensemble mean both at hour 120 are not too far apart. Both ensembele means support the op models. Where is Dawson? This is your major hit right here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Wow @ the 00z Euro it just has the perfect track. That would be a good 6 inches for CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Euro ensembel mean and GGEM ensemble mean both at hour 120 are not too far apart. Both ensembele means support the op models. Where is Dawson? This is your major hit right here. We need Cheeznado to crush our hopes using sound logic and data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Wow @ the 00z Euro it just has the perfect track. That would be a good 6 inches for CLT. It's always nice to wake up with a text from a buddy that says "you will have to change your pants after seeing the 0z Euro" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 This storm Christmas or the day after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Euro is giving me .55 all snow maybe qpf will increase as we get closer to the event. But I can't help to remember the way it performed last storm (waffle house) But one good thing this time though that gives me more comfort is that it's got support from others models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Get yo MoJo workin'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Well I can't say i'm thrilled about the low track being this close to the coast for my chances here in eastern NC. Usually a low that close kills us but its good to see the potential for you guys out west to get hammered. Hope the models have this one mostly right already and that we see a big storm for some of the SE crew. 0z EC ens mean is a little offshore Shaggy, so it's saying there's a chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I need some smelling salts. Think I'm about to faint. Its going negative tilt! in the southeast, rare! Snow everywhere from just north of ATL verbatim, Tenn, n Alabama, wstern SC most of NC except maybe southeast NC. Thank you sir! My favorite post from last night's disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 0z EC ens mean is a little offshore Shaggy, so it's saying there's a chance... Oh my. That track would mean most places west of US 17 would see something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Get yo MoJo workin'! The monkey is playing his heart out for a White Christmas ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Wow @ the 00z Euro it just has the perfect track. That would be a good 6 inches for CLT. Agree the Euro last night was just short of amazing..... I'll take it! That was the best model run for me because not only does it give CLT several inches of snow but it would give me 5-6" too since I'll be in Southern Illinois Friday. Let's see what the Euro says this afternoon, hopefully not just a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 One run of Dr. No said "cash in your chips folks" I just hope the 12Z show is the same as the 00Z show, ya know! Thanks to Robert for the PBP last night. I have court in about 30 mins, or I would look at all the models and try to paint what they are saying right now. This far out however, does have me worried.. Maybe Jeremy can talk to someone about making sure this happen as shown on the 00Z euro run.. Might be great times this week. However, with the HPC thoughts (that WNC) posted and the idea of a split flow southern track across the bottom of the country...Also the fact that this is Robert's wheel house... Good times this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Any bets on when all the models drop this storm? I'd say we get a few more exciting runs through 18z tomorrow and then 00z we see the Great Backing Off. From Tuesday through Thursday, it'll be nothing or rain. Then on Friday, we'll see a glimmer of hope as the models try to bring it back, but alas, it is just a hiccup. End result: rain showers ending as some snow flurries Saturday night. Warm. i said that two days ago. Just don't like it when its not a perfect track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Good morning, Everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I vote that your snow shields be brought down in a few days. Can you make the call as to have your workers begin preparations for this Good morning, Everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I wonder when DT will have his first call-in show on this weekend's threat? They may have to field a few calls from area code 828... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I just hope to see some flakes here in nega. Hope everyone else sees some also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
socar2001 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 does the I-20 corridor from Columbia, SC to florence, SC get in on any of this action according to the models? thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'm curious to see the panel after hr 144 on the Euro. The freezing line appears to be just west of my area. I'm wondering how areas of the midlands of SC will do in this scenario. Do the heights crash rather quickly? Does that low strengthen once it's off the coast? If anyone is privy to the next hour set after hr144, would you please tell me what happens. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Dealing with the GFS, this morning's 6z was a little colder. But still does not provide a lot of precip. It looks to spread some light snow across norther NC around mid-night Christmas Eve. Precip would then change over to ice or rain as the low passes and then back to snow by mid-night Christmas. But not a lot of precip.... So even the "bad" model is giving some hope.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I tell you what, don't let Lookout see all of this... cause if it goes north or is 34° and raining, we are all going to fight for dibs at first one off the cliff! Geeze! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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