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Christmas Storm

Cold Rain

By Cold Rain,
in Southeastern States

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Rankin5150

Rankin5150

Posted
Posted

It goes up the coast as a true blizz. Bitter cold in its wake. The theme to take away tonight is a good one. More southerly track, a split flow with that PnA ridge in western Canada (almost always needs to be there), the cold air is further south than progged, inverted trough helps with damming initally and a Gulf coast track to southeast Ga is climo good for us, especally this time of year, with Cont. Arctic air, Confluence stays put in the northeast, blocking. You couldn't ask for a better setup at all for Tenn, norther Miss, Ala, Ga western SC and most of NC atleast inland. The timing of everything is too perfect. Bill Gates couldn't have bought a better setup.

Thanks for the PBP tonight Robert! Love see a run like this. The way I see it...its a trend in the right direction. Thats all we can ask for right now. Either way, my mindset is pretty solid...if this thing were to end up as rain, at least I can say that I have never had a white Christmas in the CLT area. Had one in the Military, but that does not count. Thanks again!

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HKY18

HKY18

Posted
Posted

It looks like Jan 1996 blended with Jan 1988. And RDU could outdo us Jeremy because teh low is really wrapping up at Myrtle Beach and eastern NC, so they'll get into excellent wrap around from this going up the coast. Temps are no issue there.

yes i believe HM said jan 1996 popped up in the analogs today. i may be wrong plz dont rip my head off lol

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rduwx

rduwx

Posted
Posted

It looks like Jan 1996 blended with Jan 1988. And RDU could outdo us Jeremy because teh low is really wrapping up at Myrtle Beach and eastern NC, so they'll get into excellent wrap around from this going up the coast. Temps are no issue there.

I agree Robert. Like I was telling Widre, I'll take my chances w/ that track.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

Low inland from Wilmington? Yeah right.

You may have an issue at 144 but only briefly. the low goes from ILM to northeast NC so you'll switch back anyway.

Thanks for the PBP tonight Robert! Love see a run like this. The way I see it...its a trend in the right direction. Thats all we can ask for right now. Either way, my mindset is pretty solid...if this thing were to end up as rain, at least I can say that I have never had a white Christmas in the CLT area. Had one in the Military, but that does not count. Thanks again!

your welcome. I enjoyed this run for sure. Hope we can keep it similar in future runs, but I know the odds are against it. However, we're certainly due for a long -tracked system, its been way too long now and I know my area and probably yours too is way behind on the snowfall tallies the last few years. Just looking back at the GSP snowrecord I have its been a very long time since we've exceeded our annual averages, atleast some of us. CLT finds a way to get nailed sometimes though. Western SC is due for sure, having missed everything for the longest time. This may be the one that catches us up.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

yes

http://www.meteociel...=120&carte=1021

it takes a little wile to get used to as the site is in French... you can toggle which model you want to view by scrolling all the way down to the bottom left hand portion of the page. Then select "Cartes N-Hemi" for the NH view.

Do you know which school? The e-wall maps stink, so I doubt you are referring to those, but if you could narrow it down a little more it might help.

My god, the lengths we all will go to for a snowstorm

If you use Google Chrome, it will translate the page from French to English for you! :)

It's not a perfect translation, but it will do in most cases.

Or I could just ask my roommate (who is a French major). Well, except that it's Christmas Break now.

Thanks for the link, though. The more free models the better!

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WidreMann

WidreMann

Posted
Posted

Any bets on when all the models drop this storm? I'd say we get a few more exciting runs through 18z tomorrow and then 00z we see the Great Backing Off. From Tuesday through Thursday, it'll be nothing or rain. Then on Friday, we'll see a glimmer of hope as the models try to bring it back, but alas, it is just a hiccup. End result: rain showers ending as some snow flurries Saturday night. Warm.

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Gastonwxman

Gastonwxman

Posted
Posted

You may have an issue at 144 but only briefly. the low goes from ILM to northeast NC so you'll switch back anyway.

your welcome. I enjoyed this run for sure. Hope we can keep it similar in future runs, but I know the odds are against it. However, we're certainly due for a long -tracked system, its been way too long now and I know my area and probably yours too is way behind on the snowfall tallies the last few years. Just looking back at the GSP snow record I have its been a very long time since we've exceeded our annual averages, at least some of us. CLT finds a way to get nailed sometimes though. Western SC is due for sure, having missed everything for the longest time. This may be the one that catches us up.

I can only imagine the amount of weenie-ism that's going to take place when "they" see your posts lol. I do agree that it has been an awful long time to get a setup like what the 0z Euro is depicting. Honestly, if it were me, the rest of the winter wouldn't matter. I would much rather take this over fidgeting and worrying about wintry weather setups in the near future, especially since this would be happening on Christmas of all days! We are way overdue for a White One, and this could be the year that breaks the chain

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

I'd like to get excited about the Euro, but we're still five days out and, though the Euro has been the King the last few years, it's hard to forget all the waffling we saw last week. Things are looking up for this storm, for sure, and I like the potential for snow, however. Those damn Europeans better not be playing any tricks on us! axesmiley.png

But, yes, I was certainly aroused by the results of the Euro, regardless of how I tried to temper my expectations.tongue.gif

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

Sounds like the low goes right over me on this run at 144hrs, 850's are 3C here at that time according to the Plymouth site. Not good here as the SN would be to the west and north-west of the track, not under it, at-least not until you get up into VA where the temps are colder. Nothing like being in the EC bulls-eye 6 days out, literally. I do not believe this will verify as the extreme we saw the Euro simulate tonight for the simple fact these events do not happen all that often, and we have seen this model pull the extreme at this range only to go back to a more moderate solution. The timing of the phase is critical, and for a model to nail that exactly in the 5-plus day range is unusual. The phasing will likely be a little to soon, or late, than one perfect for the SE. Sure I could be wrong, but extreme events that put down a blanket of white from ATL to Maine just don't happen all that often, and especially on Christmas.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

but extreme events that put down a blanket of white from ATL to Maine just don't happen all that often, and especially on Christmas.

There was a lot of events in the 80's that took this track with split flow. The snow line sometimes started right around ATL, but more often it would be around Athens or northeast mtns of GA and then up the coast. Happend with the March 09 storm as well. I've said from the beginning that if we get the shortwave to break off in California and take a low road the entire trip, then it can happen. This is normally how it used to happen. Split flow with PNA ridge in western Canada, confluence in the northeast and cold air anomalously far south. Just pure coincidence its falling on Christmas Day this time. Or pure luck rather. What is rare is for the models to accurately portray somethng from 5 days out with any real good accuracy, but the pattern favors this. Time will tell.

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shaggy

shaggy

Posted
Posted

Well I can't say i'm thrilled about the low track being this close to the coast for my chances here in eastern NC. Usually a low that close kills us but its good to see the potential for you guys out west to get hammered. Hope the models have this one mostly right already and that we see a big storm for some of the SE crew.

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

yes

http://www.meteociel...=120&carte=1021

it takes a little wile to get used to as the site is in French... you can toggle which model you want to view by scrolling all the way down to the bottom left hand portion of the page. Then select "Cartes N-Hemi" for the NH view.

If you use Google Chrome, it will give you the option of translating the page to English.

EDIT: I see someone else already posted this... sorry.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

Glad I got the Euro in my conner and waiting on GFS to get on-board as opposed to other way around. HPC is buying east coast runner for Christmas. Thought Raleigh AFD sums it up best. The earlier the phase, the more southern track this will take. This explains why gfs is furtherst north of all guidance at the moment.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

EASTERN PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EAST OVER THE ROCKIES

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO

SOME INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL US/MS VALLEY REGION ON

FRIDAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH A NORTHERN STREAM COUNTERPART. MODEL

SPREAD/DIFFERENCES STEM FROM HOW EARLY THE INTERACTION OF THE TWO

STREAM WILL OCCUR...WITH THE EC INDICATING PHASING IN THE LEE OF THE

ROCKIES AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A SUPPRESSED STORM

TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE SLOWER TO PHASE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH

AND MORE PROGRESSIVE...TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE

MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SATURDAY.

GIVEN THAT THE LATEST SOUTHERN SOLUTION OF THE EC IS A SIGNIFICANT

DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO

CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD. IF FUTURE EC

MODEL ITERATIONS CAN SHOW SOME CONTINUITY/CONSISTENCY WITH SUCH A

SOUTHERN STREAM TRACK...WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER SOME FROZEN PRECIP

CHANCES. BUT FOR NOW...WILL KEEP PRECIP AS ALL RAIN FOR NOW WITH

INCREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

6z gfs is still progressive and late with the phase. See you guys at lunch!

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Rankin5150

Rankin5150

Posted
Posted

GSP's approach to weekend system:

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST HAS TAKEN A

BIT OF A NOSEDIVE UPON INSPECTION OF THE 00Z ECMWF. THIS LATEST

ITERATION OF THE MODEL NOW BRINGS THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE

FOUR CORNERS REGION...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ALONG THE

GULF COAST ON SATURDAY BEFORE IT EVENTUALLY PHASES WITH A MORE

NORTHERN STREAM TROF SATURDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...THE SURFACE LOW TRACK

IS ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY AND UP THE CAROLINA COASTLINE

SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING THE FA ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

ECMWF LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW ACROSS THE

MOUNTAINS...AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX THAT TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW ACROSS

THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS MODEL SOLUTION

HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z GEM...THOUGH ITS LOW TRACK IS A BIT

FURTHER NORTH. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO FAVOR BRINGING THE SYSTEM

WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WITH MOST OF THE FA

REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE NW FLOW SNOW

SHOWERS GET STARTED ON THE BACKSIDE.

GIVEN THAT THIS IS THE FIRST MODEL RUN TO FEATURE A SIGNIFICANT

SOUTHWARD JOG TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A

FORECAST THAT FAVORS THE 00Z GFS DUE TO PREVIOUS MODEL AGREEMENT AND

RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THE FORECAST MAY NEED A SIGNIFICANT OVERHAUL

IF THE 06Z AND 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF. WILL

LEAVE IT AS IS FOR NOW AND ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REEVALUATE

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

Atlanta is still wait and see although they do acknowledge the ECMWF.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...UPPER RIDGE HOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVEMOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. GFS HAS THEFRONT CROSSING THE STATE FRIDAY WITH DRYING ON SATURDAY. NEW ECMWFHAS DIFFERENT SOLUTION IN BRINGING THE SHORT WAVE INTO THESOUTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS...HAVECHOSEN TO STAY WITH ORIGINAL GFS AT THIS TIME AND LET LATER SHIFTSLOOK AT THE NEXT MODEL RUNS.

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