Rankin5150 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Man, that one is going to sting for a while. I thought we were golden too when we had flakes flying way earlier than expected. I have made it a point in my brain to FORGET about last winter. Being SO CLOSE on SO MANY OCCASIONS, only to have it end up as 33 and cold rain (no ****) or dryslotted. Unreal...I would have rather had a winter with no threats, etc. I was happy for a lot of our SE peeps though. They had a couple of decent snows (I believe NEGA was one of them that I remember who received 5+"?) where they had gone without for so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Canadian takes a 1009 lp from just north of Birmingham Friday evening to 992 about 75 miles east of Virginia Beach by Saturday evening. I would think that would be pretty ideal for western NC and upstate SC. I would think a phasing/deepening lp arching just south of Atlanta and southern/eastern SC to off the VA Capes would give western nc and upstate a good shot at a storm. It's the canadian of course. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The color graphic version paints the picture...I don't know which model will be correct, but this model run for the Canadian is interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 0z UKMET, N AL @ 120 to this at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The color graphic version paints the picture...I don't know which model will be correct, but this model run for the Canadian is interesting to say the least. Now that's a look I could become really interested in...looks like it's real, real close to a nice system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 canadian in color: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 there's a precip shield over your house all the way into the upstate yeah but for good reason. Its not just bad luck, its the prevailing flow in Summers now, and to some extent the Spring and Fall can be that well, and in this particular case, the Winter so far. But mostly its the summers, where I and most of western SC end up losing about 15" of rain that others around here get. The northwest winds coming across the Smokies and the downsloping, this area starting at the southern end of my county (where I am) all the way south and west along 85 right to about the SC/GA border feel the worst effects of this new flow. Only in a couple periods can it rain "normally" now, with a deep south flow , or in an el nino Fall/Winter. I hate to even mention it in this thread but it will be another double digit departure here again this year. I have just over 32" on the year, and am going to be around 15" to 17" below on the year. Again. Probably 20" or more departures just to my west north of Spartanburg. This will be 10 out of 12 years below normal here. Most are absolutely enormous departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 0z UKMET, N AL @ 120 to this at 144 [/quote Is that image from a free site? I've spent hours looking for a reliable source for the ukmet past 72 hours and haven't found one yet. TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Does anyone have the link with the real purdy canadian maps? It's hosted on a school's website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Is that image from a free site? I've spent hours looking for a reliable source for the ukmet past 72 hours and haven't found one yet. TIA Looks like that comes from the french meteorological svc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Looks like that comes from the french meteorological svc? Yep, I just found and bookmarked it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Is that image from a free site? I've spent hours looking for a reliable source for the ukmet past 72 hours and haven't found one yet. TIA yes http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=120&carte=1021 it takes a little wile to get used to as the site is in French... you can toggle which model you want to view by scrolling all the way down to the bottom left hand portion of the page. Then select "Cartes N-Hemi" for the NH view. Does anyone have the link with the real purdy canadian maps? It's hosted on a school's website. Do you know which school? The e-wall maps stink, so I doubt you are referring to those, but if you could narrow it down a little more it might help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 the Canadian would be the best bet for the majority of us, but for upper SC and the southern foothills NC, you can see a diminished precip hole here. It would really get the central Piedmont and eastern NC well, and the Tenn valley . Its a trend in the right direction. The Euro will be coming out in 30 minutes, I may stay up for it just for punishment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 it takes a little wile to get used to as the site is in French... you can toggle which model you want to view by scrolling all the way down to the bottom left hand portion of the page. Then select "Cartes N-Hemi" for the NH view. My god, the lengths we all will go to for a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Does anyone have the link with the real purdy canadian maps? It's hosted on a school's website. I don't have the link of GGEm special snow graphics past 48 hours. Wonder if anyone else does. Are those the ones youre talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 yeah but for good reason. Its not just bad luck, its the prevailing flow in Summers now, and to some extent the Spring and Fall can be that well, and in this particular case, the Winter so far. But mostly its the summers, where I and most of western SC end up losing about 15" of rain that others around here get. The northwest winds coming across the Smokies and the downsloping, this area starting at the southern end of my county (where I am) all the way south and west along 85 right to about the SC/GA border feel the worst effects of this new flow. Only in a couple periods can it rain "normally" now, with a deep south flow , or in an el nino Fall/Winter. I hate to even mention it in this thread but it will be another double digit departure here again this year. I have just over 32" on the year, and am going to be around 15" to 17" below on the year. Again. Probably 20" or more departures just to my west north of Spartanburg. This will be 10 out of 12 years below normal here. Most are absolutely enormous departures. Good grief. That's bad. Doesn't that area normally(not lately) get more rain than most places in the southeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I don't have the link of GGEm special snow graphics past 48 hours. Wonder if anyone else does. Are those the ones youre talking about? I'm looking for the canadian link that you can look at ptypes up to 120 hours out. I lost it after last winter somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 My god, the lengths we all will go to for a snowstorm LOL I think Australia and Zimbabwe are the only places we can't find models for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 the Canadian would be the best bet for the majority of us, but for upper SC and the southern foothills NC, you can see a diminished precip hole here. It would really get the central Piedmont and eastern NC well, and the Tenn valley . Its a trend in the right direction. The Euro will be coming out in 30 minutes, I may stay up for it just for punishment. Shouldn't we be concerned with southerly winds and a warm punch of air east and NE of that sfc low. I don't see a good cold feed east of the low. If you look at the black and white Canadian image at hr 120, you can see the 1000-700mb thickness line way up in S VA. I guess this is a long way out and the Euro and GFS have been showing more of a CAD signature, but I feel like this is really going to have to trend a good bit farther south for us to be in good shape temp wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 the Canadian would be the best bet for the majority of us, but for upper SC and the southern foothills NC, you can see a diminished precip hole here. It would really get the central Piedmont and eastern NC well, and the Tenn valley . Its a trend in the right direction. The Euro will be coming out in 30 minutes, I may stay up for it just for punishment. :thumbsup: You are not alone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'm looking for the canadian link that you can look at ptypes up to 120 hours out. I lost it after last winter somehow. Here's the Canadian PType Loop - http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Shouldn't we be concerned with southerly winds and a warm punch of air east and NE of that sfc low. I don't see a good cold feed east of the low. If you look at the black and white Canadian image at hr 120, you can see the 1000-700mb thickness line way up in S VA. I guess this is a long way out and the Euro and GFS have been showing more of a CAD signature, but I feel like this is really going to have to trend a good bit farther south for us to be in good shape temp wise. You have to take a lot of liberties with the Canadian, its always warm biased. Its not my fav. model, never has been but did do well in the March 09 storm here. If the low is that far south, we're still on the line, but the temps would be cooler than it shows simply b/c of its warm biased. Still may end up too warm here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Excited to hear what the Euro has in store with Low pressure placement tonight! Have the next 2 weeks off work. Time to find a good storm and chase it. Too bad I am not in Tahoe right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 This will be 10 out of 12 years below normal here. Most are absolutely enormous departures. Perhaps it is time to look for the cause of a new normal and whether or not it is a permanent change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Perhaps it is time to look for the cause of a new normal and whether or not it is a permanent change. I did. And its on Eastern wx. I did a study on why, and its the new northwest flow in Summer. Why that is, I have no idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Here's the Canadian PType Loop - http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I did. And its on Eastern wx. I did a study on why, and its the new northwest flow in Summer. Why that is, I have no idea. I read that. Its the why and whether or not its permanent that would be nice to know. Its quite a sudden and radical change but I guess it wouldn't be the first time. Sure would be nice to understand the mechanics driving things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 closed low/strong s/w in southern California at 72 . Touches Baja Peninsula. Pretty far south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I read that. Its the why and whether or not its permanent that would be nice to know. Its quite a sudden and radical change but I guess it wouldn't be the first time. Sure would be nice to understand the mechanics driving things. not to derail this thread, but this is the last i'll post on it. Nothing matches GSP records anywhere near it going back to 1890's. So this last 12 years has been unprecedented in rain records, and matches precisely the suddent shift in prevailing winds. Only a few counties are affected, which is why I guess we don't hear more about it. I'm right in the heart of it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 closed low in central Arizona at 84 hours. This is well south of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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