FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 yeah trends here are the important things. I'm watching where the main 5H enters southern California. We won't know that for another 24 hours maybe 36 or 48 at the latest. It seems to be further south though, the GFS makes a little north jog in the Plains before scooting se with it somewhat. The big unknown is what the northern stream will do, thats alwyas the hard part for all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The Euro and GFS both agree on one thing: the temperatures on Christmas. It rises here to almost 6C on Christmas Day insuring anything that falls would be purely liquid unless some miraculous dymanics come through here. It aint snowed measurably here on Christmas for 62 years and I'd bet my soul on it being 63 this year. The pattern aint right for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I think I'll stay up for the Euro tonight...been catching up on the tread as I've been working over the weekend, good disco...After this weekends fail I hope something substantial can happen for most of central NC and the sandhills, and by substantial I mean at least 3"+....rain on christmas is just no good. how much did the Raleigh area get on the snow yesterday? ANy? I saw isopync had 1.5" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 yeah trends here are the important things. I'm watching where the main 5H enters southern California. We won't know that for another 24 hours maybe 36 or 48 at the latest. It seems to be further south though, the GFS makes a little north jog in the Plains before scooting se with it somewhat. The big unknown is what the northern stream will do, thats alwyas the hard part for all the models. I got$20 bucks says this won't phase until its too late. That ridge needs to move farther west about 400 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Your'e going to miss a big 3 part phaser on the Euro . But have a great night sleep Thats the way to "reel" him back in Robert. I am up tonight! No work for me tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 And with that I'm off to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 how much did the Raleigh area get on the snow yesterday? ANy? I saw isopync had 1.5" or so. Where I live right next to RDU on the Durham/Wake line I didn't see anything measurable...just brief periods of snow, sleet, ice pellets, etc....and that's it. No good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xwx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 This run looks terrible for sure. I agree with your sentiments here. FAIL on the 0z. [/quote This run is a lot better than the 18z run..........primary low going thru nc........When that clipper dampens out west of the apps on tues,then lets see if the energy phases........very rare to see a low transverse the country at almost the same latitude off the nc coast......with building hgts over southeast greenland i do think the confluence will be there.......with hgts bieng 5500 or lower next sat over va nc........ xwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 pattern change after this next storm. One more cold blast then probably western trough and eastern ridging. Atleast the GFS thinks so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 xwx definitely it is only one run with days to go. It is certainly better than 18z but in terms of how it looked verbatim as the low crossed our region is what i was referring to. Still so many factors needed to come together between the shortwaves, midwestern surface high, and greenland blocking. A fun week ahead of model watching if this thing hangs around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 pattern change after this next storm. One more cold blast then probably western trough and eastern ridging. Atleast the GFS thinks so. What did you think of the CPC ensemble data for AO and NAO today. Looked like the NAO was struggling to even get to neutral at the end of the forecast period. Will today's run influence that tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xwx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The Euro and GFS both agree on one thing: the temperatures on Christmas. It rises here to almost 6C on Christmas Day insuring anything that falls would be purely liquid unless some miraculous dymanics come through here. It aint snowed measurably here on Christmas for 62 years and I'd bet my soul on it being 63 this year. The pattern aint right for it. We are in a good pattern over the east coast... 1 eastern pacfic ridge 2 -nao good cold supply 3 pj has been active 4 +PNA 5 cahirs ridge 6 trough over spain Timing has to be perfect to get big miller A snowstorms over the se.....Most of the time when the block retrogrades back northward you can get a good nor'easter...... xwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xwx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 What did you think of the CPC ensemble data for AO and NAO today. Looked like the NAO was struggling to even get to neutral at the end of the forecast period. Will today's run influence that tomorrow? just a reminder...all cpc pna and nao are gfs based....... xwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cameronfry Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Where I live right next to RDU on the Durham/Wake line I didn't see anything measurable...just brief periods of snow, sleet, ice pellets, etc....and that's it. No good. Same here in Apex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 We are in a good pattern over the east coast... 1 eastern pacfic ridge 2 -nao good cold supply 3 pj has been active 4 +PNA 5 cahirs ridge 6 trough over spain Timing has to be perfect to get big miller A snowstorms over the se.....Most of the time when the block retrogrades back northward you can get a good nor'easter...... xwx yeah, but we havent had the PNA strong enough yet for us it seems...i'm a little skeptical if we'll get enough of a PNA ridge to help us anyway. It cant help us either that the STJ has been practically DOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 pattern change after this next storm. One more cold blast then probably western trough and eastern ridging. Atleast the GFS thinks so. I swear to baby jebus, if we get out of this obscenely cold pattern with just a T for both of us, I'm going to lose it. There are times where this is the absolutely least fulfilling hobby out there. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xwx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 xwx definitely it is only one run with days to go. It is certainly better than 18z but in terms of how it looked verbatim as the low crossed our region is what i was referring to. Still so many factors needed to come together between the shortwaves, midwestern surface high, and greenland blocking. A fun week ahead of model watching if this thing hangs around. fun week indeed my friend xwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 What did you think of the CPC ensemble data for AO and NAO today. Looked like the NAO was struggling to even get to neutral at the end of the forecast period. Will today's run influence that tomorrow? I didn't see that. The pattern is more zonal I should have said. We have a warm up, then cool back down, so no sustained torch on this run. I swear to baby jebus, if we get out of this obscenely cold pattern with just a T for both of us, I'm going to lose it. There are times where this is the absolutely least fulfilling hobby out there. Damn. LOL calm down. Lets see if the Euro still looks about the same. We don't need that much of a south trend here. My worry is that we'll get that south trend, but at the expense of a weaker, more positive tilt trough, followed by a cold blast, sort of whats happening on the GFS but further south. Its really too far out to rule anything out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 LOL calm down. Lets see if the Euro still looks about the same. We don't need that much of a south trend here. My worry is that we'll get that south trend, but at the expense of a weaker, more positive tilt trough, followed by a cold blast, sort of whats happening on the GFS but further south. Its really too far out to rule anything out. I was thinking today, I dont think we've had a no doubt storm since way back in February 2004...I'd love one that we just dont have to chew our fingernails off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 just a reminder...all cpc pna and nao are gfs based....... xwx Very true. That's what it says on the CPC pages. What is your point? Maybe I'm missing it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Let the southward trend commence... (south of the 12z ens mean, did not compare to 18z since the time-stamp would be off) and OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xwx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Very true. That's what it says on the CPC pages. What is your point? Maybe I'm missing it... Dont bet the house on that data.........its burnt me thru the years....... xwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 that looks great! GGEM Surface low over southern Arkansas @ 108 and over N Alabama @ 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I was thinking today, I dont think we've had a no doubt storm since way back in February 2004...I'd love one that we just dont have to chew our fingernails off. Thats probably the last good one that was a cinch as good as it could be, I don't think it wavered much from the time it appeared on Cali. But the one last January 30 or 31, i thought was a sure thing here and the Upstate of SC for sure, Turns out the good snow missed me just to the north all night long. I got 2.5" or so from it. Pure dryslotted, from a lower miss. Valley storm, or nearly a Gulf storm. Its amazing how I miss precip in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Let the southward trend commence... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Dont bet the house on that data.........its burnt me thru the years....... xwx I don't doubt the operational could sniff out the pattern first - as it should. Even on today's 0z GFS, it looked to me to still try to pop a -NAO near the end of its run FWIW. It almost seems every strong storm reloads the pattern. Besides, aren't strong blocks in December normally followed by more blocking episodes? Normally La Nina does take over in JFM, but I think it was donsutherland in another thread who talked about how unusually strong this block is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Thats probably the last good one that was a cinch as good as it could be, I don't think it wavered much from the time it appeared on Cali. But the one last January 30 or 31, i thought was a sure thing here and the Upstate of SC for sure, Turns out the good snow missed me just to the north all night long. I got 2.5" or so from it. Pure dryslotted, from a lower miss. Valley storm, or nearly a Gulf storm. Its amazing how I miss precip in general. there's a precip shield over your house all the way into the upstate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xwx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I don't doubt the operational could sniff out the pattern first - as it should. Even on today's 0z GFS, it looked to me to still try to pop a -NAO near the end of its run FWIW. It almost seems every strong storm reloads the pattern. Besides, aren't strong blocks in December normally followed by more blocking episodes? Normally La Nina does take over in JFM, but I think it was donsutherland in another thread who talked about how unusually strong this block is... well said...agree xwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Thats probably the last good one that was a cinch as good as it could be, I don't think it wavered much from the time it appeared on Cali. But the one last January 30 or 31, i thought was a sure thing here and the Upstate of SC for sure, Turns out the good snow missed me just to the north all night long. I got 2.5" or so from it. Pure dryslotted, from a lower miss. Valley storm, or nearly a Gulf storm. Its amazing how I miss precip in general. Man, that one is going to sting for a while. I thought we were golden too when we had flakes flying way earlier than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 1039mb? Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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