Christmas Storm

[HKY_WX]

Brandon,

Where is the cutoff for the 2m temps (I know you said souther portion)? I-40 south? Thanks

Prob a little south of i40. At this point, though, it's going to change quite a bit. However there is definitely cad showing up on the euro.

[Weather Czar]

Well in my view it is someone else's turn for a screw job Perhaps this time it can be you and the snow will be down this way.

Well missing snow sucks, but I would rather miss it to the south or east than let the mid atlantic get anymore

[beanskip]

Even at 36 hours, the difference between the 0z NAM and 0z GFS is pretty stark.

of course its not good to really trust the NAM at 84 hr even at 5H unless the other models back it up. We'll see.

[superjames1992]

Well in my view it is someone else's turn for a screw job Perhaps this time it can be you and the snow will be down this way.

Like this?

[eyewall]

Like this?

Exactly! I scored 21 inches out of that!

[bingcrosbyb]

Hmm. H5 is south of the 12z marker @ HR 72.

[FoothillsNC]

Even at 36 hours, the difference between the 0z NAM and 0z GFS is pretty stark.

yep. Comparing the GFS 12z at 96 to tonights 84, its already further south so far. Tonights 84 has the s/w coming out of the 4 corners region. Hopefully it stays south and doesn't get sheared.

[FoothillsNC]

at 96, the surface low is on the Ks/Ok border. Wrapped up 850 low near there and a good snowstorm probably n. Kansas, Iowa and Neb.

[bingcrosbyb]

H5 sharper, stronger, and a little south of 12z @ 90HR.

[HWY316wx]

The trend is our friend folks. Long way to go. At least we have the potential.

[xwx]

at 96, the surface low is on the Ks/Ok border. Wrapped up 850 low near there and a good snowstorm probably n. Kansas, Iowa and Neb.

further south and a tad faster on this run at 5h

xwx

[burgertime]

00z is further south at 108 but not by much.

[FoothillsNC]

at 114 theres a s/w still back in the Dakotas , the primary is in the Bootheel of Mo. Going to be hard to phase that I'd think. Overall its about where it looked at 12z.

[burgertime]

This looks to be a great run!

[FoothillsNC]

at 120, the 0 at 850 is damming in w. NC and along I-40. The main sfc low is near Nashville.

[burgertime]

Well I take that back the temps aren't there verbatim this run but it's better than the 18z.

[FoothillsNC]

at 126 hour, didn't quite phase with the nrn stream, so it gets booted, sheared some to the southeast. The warm advection changes NC over to rain, and we have just a regular frontal passage with strong cold advection behind it. the 850 low is in southern WVA.

[burgertime]

OTS for me....by that I mean Off To Sleep let's see if she disappears tomorrow.

[xwx]

126 over the nw piedmont sn to rn........it will trend colder with the primary going south............

xwx

[FoothillsNC]

its actually not that much precip put down on the piedmont of the Carolinas anyway. About .25" to .50" for most, but more in eastern NC, and much less in western SC, as you'd expect.

[Rankin5150]

at 120, the 0 at 850 is damming in w. NC and along I-40. The main sfc low is near Nashville.

This is where it will have you and Brandon handy. You guys can sniff out CAD like a drug sniffing dog!! Although...I am not particurly interested in a major ice storm on Christmas, not after the 2002 early dec storm.

[FoothillsNC]

OTS for me....by that I mean Off To Sleep let's see if she disappears tomorrow.

Your'e going to miss a big 3 part phaser on the Euro . But have a great night sleep

[BullCityWx]

Aint even close.

Date: 5 day AVN valid 0Z SAT 25 DEC 10
Station: 35.31,-81.23
Latitude:   35.31
Longitude: -81.23
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000    95                                                                 
SFC  981   254   3.5   2.1  91  1.4   2.9 186   4 278.2 279.0 277.0 290.7  4.54
 2  950   514   5.0   2.2  82  2.8   3.7 201  14 282.3 283.1 279.3 295.5  4.72
 3  900   954   2.9   1.8  93  1.1   2.4 216  25 284.5 285.3 280.5 298.1  4.85
 4  850  1415   1.2   0.5  95  0.7   0.8 226  33 287.4 288.2 281.6 300.6  4.65
 5  800  1903   0.7   0.4  98  0.2   0.5 237  42 291.9 292.7 283.8 306.2  4.93
 6  750  2421  -0.5  -0.9  97  0.4  -0.7 245  47 296.0 296.9 285.4 310.1  4.77
 7  700  2970  -3.2  -3.6  96  0.5  -3.4 249  50 299.0 299.7 285.9 311.5  4.17
 8  650  3554  -6.2  -6.6  97  0.3  -6.4 252  50 301.9 302.6 286.4 312.9  3.60
 9  600  4177  -9.5  -9.9  97  0.3  -9.6 252  51 305.1 305.7 286.9 314.5  3.01
10  550  4844 -13.4 -13.8  97  0.4 -13.5 249  51 308.2 308.6 287.3 315.8  2.39
11  500  5564 -18.0 -18.4  96  0.4 -18.1 241  52 311.1 311.5 287.8 317.0  1.79
12  450  6341 -24.5 -25.8  89  1.3 -24.8 237  56 312.4 312.6 287.4 315.9  1.04
13  400  7188 -30.3 -34.9  64  4.7 -30.9 243  69 315.6 315.7 287.9 317.4  0.49
14  350  8125 -36.6 -46.8  34 10.2 -37.4 249  80 319.3 319.4 288.7 320.0  0.16
15  300  9174 -44.7 -51.9  45  7.1 -45.0 253  87 322.3 322.3 289.6 322.7  0.11
16  250 10371 -52.8 -57.5  57  4.7 -52.9 254  91 327.5 327.5 291.1 327.8  0.06
17  200 11788 -58.0 -62.5  56  4.5 -58.0 256  95 340.9 340.9 294.6 341.1  0.04
18  150 13585 -61.6 -69.6  34  7.9 -61.7 260  92 363.9 363.9 299.5 364.0  0.02
19  100 16071 -65.7 -80.0  12 14.3 -65.8 267  74 400.9 400.9 305.3 400.9  0.01
TRP                                             0                              
WND                                             0                    

[Weather Czar]

It's not the great run on the GFS everyone was looking for. It is a slight trend south and I hope that continues. Looks like the blocking was a little stronger on this run and that helped push it south as it came east. Bad thing is it sheared it out much like the CMC and JMA are doing.

[eyewall]

at 126 hour, didn't quite phase with the nrn stream, so it gets booted, sheared some to the southeast. The warm advection changes NC over to rain, and we have just a regular frontal passage with strong cold advection behind it. the 850 low is in southern WVA.

This run looks terrible for sure. I agree with your sentiments here. FAIL on the 0z.

[beanskip]

Long ways to go, but that is a southerly trend on the 850 which was over Ohio at the same time on the 18z run.

at 126 hour, didn't quite phase with the nrn stream, so it gets booted, sheared some to the southeast. The warm advection changes NC over to rain, and we have just a regular frontal passage with strong cold advection behind it. the 850 low is in southern WVA.

[FoothillsNC]

our consolation prize this run is -12 again and 522 thickness coming in on due north winds, tons of upslope snow in the Apps, probably more Ten. Valley and n. Ga snowflurries as well. Just more bitter cold again I have a feeling the Euro will think differently though.

[BullCityWx]

Date: 5.5 day AVN valid 12Z SAT 25 DEC 10
Station: 35.31,-81.23
Latitude:   35.31
Longitude: -81.23
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000    21                                                                 
SFC  972   254   3.3   2.8  96  0.5   3.1 293   6 278.7 279.5 277.6 291.9  4.81
 2  950   439   4.6   2.9  89  1.7   3.8 303  13 281.9 282.7 279.4 295.6  4.97
 3  900   880   4.1   1.3  82  2.8   2.8 307  21 285.7 286.5 280.8 298.9  4.66
 4  850  1343   1.2  -1.6  82  2.7  -0.0 307  26 287.4 288.1 280.8 298.8  4.00
 5  800  1828  -1.6  -4.1  83  2.5  -2.6 304  23 289.5 290.1 281.2 299.7  3.53
 6  750  2340  -4.3  -7.7  77  3.4  -5.5 295  19 291.9 292.4 281.5 300.4  2.86
 7  700  2881  -7.6 -11.3  75  3.7  -8.9 277  22 294.0 294.4 281.7 301.0  2.30
 8  650  3454  -9.6 -15.8  61  6.2 -11.5 263  33 298.1 298.4 282.7 303.4  1.71
 9  600  4071 -11.2 -22.5  39 11.3 -14.0 258  43 303.1 303.3 284.0 306.5  1.05
10  550  4733 -15.4 -28.8  31 13.4 -18.1 257  47 305.8 305.9 284.5 307.9  0.64
11  500  5446 -20.3 -35.5  24 15.2 -22.6 256  51 308.3 308.3 285.1 309.6  0.37
12  450  6218 -24.7 -44.5  14 19.8 -26.8 257  63 312.2 312.2 286.3 312.8  0.16
13  400  7068 -28.7 -51.5   9 22.8 -30.4 259  83 317.7 317.7 288.1 318.0  0.08
14  350  8014 -34.1 -54.4  11 20.3 -35.3 261  98 322.8 322.8 289.7 323.1  0.07
15  300  9073 -43.0 -56.5  21 13.5 -43.6 258  98 324.7 324.7 290.3 325.0  0.06
16  250 10280 -50.5 -60.3  31  9.8 -50.8 259  99 331.0 331.0 292.0 331.2  0.05
17  200 11717 -54.4 -65.4  25 11.0 -54.6 261  95 346.6 346.6 295.9 346.7  0.03
18  150 13543 -58.3 -73.1  13 14.8 -58.5 266  91 369.6 369.6 300.5 369.7  0.01
19  100 16047 -65.2 -79.9  11 14.7 -65.3 268  77 401.8 401.8 305.5 401.8  0.01
TRP                                             0                              
WND                                             0         

Aint nothing like almost 40 degrees and ****ing drizzle on christmas morning.

[Jon]

Your'e going to miss a big 3 part phaser on the Euro . But have a great night sleep

I think I'll stay up for the Euro tonight...been catching up on the tread as I've been working over the weekend, good disco...After this weekends fail I hope something substantial can happen for most of central NC and the sandhills, and by substantial I mean at least 3"+....rain on christmas is just no good.

[Weather Czar]

our consolation prize this run is -12 again and 522 thickness coming in on due north winds, tons of upslope snow in the Apps, probably more Ten. Valley and n. Ga snowflurries as well. Just more bitter cold again I have a feeling the Euro will think differently though.

The GFS has big shifts from run to run.