Christmas Storm

[crossthread]

JFYI, even with the euro sfc track, 2m temps are below 0c for most of NC through the storm except the southern portion.

Castin 100 lb line, not quite far enough, need about couple thousand more yards,,...

current obs..

34.7 °F Clear

Windchill:29 °F

Humidity:96%

Dew Point:34 °F

Wind:7.1 mph from the North

Wind Gust:11.6 mph

Pressure:29.98 in (Steady)

[CaryWx]

NAM a bit south at 48??

[beanskip]

Not sure I'm smart enough to interpret, but looks like some changes in the 0z NAM vs prior runs in terms of setup for Christmas ....

[HKY_WX]

Not sure I'm smart enough to interpret, but looks like some changes in the 0z NAM vs prior runs in terms of setup for Christmas ....

Yep through 66 the blocking is a little stronger over canada and the cutoff in the atlantic is stronger. We want that cutoff to hang on longer as it will suppress the storm.

[tarheelwx]

I'll take snow or ice, and the more the better. 3 reasons I don't think we'll see alot of ice.

QPF is modest on most all models. Few showing even .50".

Would likely see some mix so that not all preceip is zr.

The other is the position of the hp. In our worst icing scenarios, the hp is anchored to our north, not northwest.

TW

[FoothillsNC]

At 72 hours and beyond the 00Z Nam is further south with the 5H system in southern California. Don't know if this means it can't get into the Colorado area before diving again, but every mile south right now probably is a plus for us in the East wanting a further south track, but it also reduces the chances of the phasing northern stream late Thursday/Friday.

[Carvers Gap]

If that low tracks through the state of TN, is it rain or snow? W/ that high pressure parked in the northern plains, that should be a good set-up if the low doesn't track the Kentucky border. If it does that(goes through Kentucky), it's rain. Thoughts?

[FoothillsNC]

I don't see the wave that GFS has in Canada this supposed to phase late week, on the NAM. We could be dealing with a pure southern system like in El Nino years. Just looking at water vapor tonight looks like last year at this time. Its hard to believe we could deal with such a southerly track and the system hold together.

[FoothillsNC]

If that low tracks through the state of TN, is it rain or snow? W/ that high pressure parked in the northern plains, that should be a good set-up if the low doesn't track the Kentucky border. If it does that(goes through Kentucky), it's rain. Thoughts?

to the north of the track of the surface system throughout its track east , it should have snow on the north side of the system, so if it takes a track to n. Ga, then all north of that track should be in the snow sector, just from the extremely low heights and blocking, not necessarily b/c of the high pressure placement this time. We're in a very supressed track with the blocking now so the normal rules are little more relaxed or diffrent, unless very strong warm advection occurs and the system becomes really strong, like Nino systems.

[beanskip]

Having computer problems so I can't paste them (code for: he's too lazy), but check out the 18z GFS at 90 hours vs. the 0z NAM at 84 -- pretty amazing difference.

I don't see the wave that GFS has in Canada this supposed to phase late week, on the NAM. We could be dealing with a pure southern system like in El Nino years. Just looking at water vapor tonight looks like last year at this time. Its hard to believe we could deal with such a southerly track and the system hold together.

[NCBlizzard]

to the north of the track of the surface system throughout its track east , it should have snow on the north side of the system, so if it takes a track to n. Ga, then all north of that track should be in the snow sector, just from the extremely low heights and blocking, not necessarily b/c of the high pressure placement this time. We're in a very supressed track with the blocking now so the normal rules are little more relaxed or diffrent, unless very strong warm advection occurs and the system becomes really strong, like Nino systems.

What do we need to look for for that perfect track to happen?

Having computer problems so I can't paste them (code for: he's too lazy), but check out the 18z GFS at 90 hours vs. the 0z NAM at 84 -- pretty amazing difference.

it is a good bit further SW at 500 mb

[Tacoma]

guess only time will tell. lets hope the arctic high coming out of canada will supress the storm more south

[beanskip]

Of course, it wouldn't be good enough for this storm to continue to be modeled to miss us to the north -- the weather gods are WAAAAAAAY too cruel to pass up a chance to show some more southerly tracks ....

[FoothillsNC]

of course its not good to really trust the NAM at 84 hr even at 5H unless the other models back it up. We'll see.

[Carvers Gap]

to the north of the track of the surface system throughout its track east , it should have snow on the north side of the system, so if it takes a track to n. Ga, then all north of that track should be in the snow sector, just from the extremely low heights and blocking, not necessarily b/c of the high pressure placement this time. We're in a very supressed track with the blocking now so the normal rules are little more relaxed or diffrent, unless very strong warm advection occurs and the system becomes really strong, like Nino systems.

I read your Nino thoughts just a minute ago. On the main forum, donsutherland and HM have been having a pretty interesting conversation about where January goes. I really expected this cold to break after Christmas. On the 18z GFS, the pattern almost looks to reload w/ each storm. This blocking pattern has been pretty amazing. As a follow-up, if the low were to track directly over an area would there be snow or rain? I think I have seen both here.

[bingcrosbyb]

Difference between the NAM and the GFS is pretty amazing.

[Rankin5150]

JFYI, even with the euro sfc track, 2m temps are below 0c for most of NC through the storm except the southern portion.

Brandon,

Where is the cutoff for the 2m temps (I know you said souther portion)? I-40 south? Thanks

[eyewall]

Two words: Lakes Cutter .

Actually who knows at this point. I hope the 0z shows some love and I hope a high confidence trend can be established unlike our last storm.

[Weather Czar]

I read your Nino thoughts just a minute ago. On the main forum, donsutherland and HM have been having a pretty interesting conversation about where January goes. I really expected this cold to break after Christmas. On the 18z GFS, the pattern almost looks to reload w/ each storm. This blocking pattern has been pretty amazing. As a follow-up, if the low were to track directly over an area would there be snow or rain? I think I have seen both here.

I think it depends on how strong the storm gets. If it's weak you might stay all snow.

[FoothillsNC]

As a follow-up, if the low were to track directly over an area would there be snow or rain? I think I have seen both here.

if there were phasing, like the 12z showed, then its a rain or mix to snow scenario under that path, which would be Tn, n GA and much of Carolinas. If its no phasing, just a low with attached frontal passage, it would be the usual, snow on north side of track, prefrontal rains in the southeast side, with wraparound, upslope snow in mtns and tenn valley, but none east of mtns.

[Weather Czar]

Two words: Lakes Cutter .

Actually who knows at this point. I hope the 0z shows some love and I hope a high confidence trend can be established unlike our last storm.

At least we are not dependent on a phase like the mid atlantic and NE are. We all know how the GFS phased systems work out at this range.

[Buddy]

At least we are not depended on a phase like the mid atlantic and NE are. We all know how the GFS phased systems work out at this range.

Yea, two words 'cold rain'

[Amos83]

LOL well judging my what I have read on the midwest forum, here, and looking at the models it would appear in order for me to see snow in S. Illinois out of this storm is directly tied to if my home in CLT sees snow while I'm gone. Therefore I'm double rooting hard for us SE folks to score a coup out of this that way I'll see some snow as well.

Great disco again today everyone!

[Carvers Gap]

You know, the 18z GFS taken verbatim seemed to imply that this was just the beginning of an unsettled pattern in the East. Thanks to Weather Czar and Foothills for their responses. Time to finish watching Inception and check-in when the other models post.

[Weather Czar]

Yea, two words 'cold rain'

Or no phase and out to sea like yesterday. YOu know only about 4 days out the GFS was giving us a foot.

[eyewall]

At least we are not dependent on a phase like the mid atlantic and NE are. We all know how the GFS phased systems work out at this range.

hahah yeah true but we would still want a phase in a favorable position for us to get a real strong system and the cold air wrapped in.

[Tacoma]

thinking nc mtns will see all snow piedmont rain snow mix

[Weather Czar]

hahah yeah true but we would still want a phase in a favorable position for us to get a real strong system and the cold air wrapped in.

Not wanting too big of a storm here being Christmas. I know gotta keep the weenie in check sometimes.

[Buddy]

Or no phase and out to sea like yesterday. YOu know only about 4 days out the GFS was giving us a foot.

Oh yea, I know, but 34F and rain is much, much more cruel.

That way we're all up at 3am typing in a 1k post thread waiting on the three snowflakes that will fall that night before it switches over to solid rain.

[eyewall]

Not wanting too big of a storm here being Christmas. I know gotta keep the weenie in check sometimes.

Well in my view it is someone else's turn for a screw job Perhaps this time it can be you and the snow will be down this way.